Toulouse vs Strasbourg: after the 5-1, the Racing must learn to win away

On Sunday evening Strasbourg scored five against Auxerre and La Meinau breathed for the first time in a month. On Friday the Racing play at the Stadium, where they have lost their last three away games without scoring more than once. Hugo Oliveira named the problem after the 5-1: “away from home, we need the same mentality” (Alsa Sports).

The 5-1 does not travel

Before Sunday, Strasbourg had lost four in a row, with seven points from eight games, the worst return of the BlueCo era, to the point that the Auxerre week was billed as crucial and Oliveira’s message reported as “hardly audible” (DNA). The 5-1, with doubles from Godo and Yassine, stopped the run. Away from home, nothing has changed: three of those four defeats came on the road.

Doukouré and Godo, back in the XI against Auxerre, played without lasting the ninety minutes, managed after their injuries (Alsa Sports). The treatment room has not emptied:

• Baldé (leg) and Panichelli (knee) remain sidelined, the latter not expected back before early December;
• Nanasi and Amo-Ameyaw have been out for weeks;
• Oyedele remains a doubt.

Toulouse lost their plan at Marseille

Friday’s defeat at Marseille left Jens Berthel Askou blunt: “we were not able to follow our plan”, both goals “consequences of not applying the game plan” (Toulouse FC). The team stay hard to beat: one defeat in their last four league games. Their absentees are known:

• Messali (thigh), out for several weeks;
• Niflore (knee), back in training;
• Oppong (calf), on his way back: injury lists have him either in the squad or still unavailable.

The last two meetings went to Toulouse, and the five before them are split. Two teams on ten points after nine games, twelfth against thirteenth: the table separates nobody, the venue might.

Recent form:

My bet: Toulouse at 2.10, minimum stake

Toulouse are priced at 2.10 with Betano, unchanged since the market opened, just short of one chance in two. I make it 48% for Toulouse, nearly two points above the market: blended with the price, the advantage melts away and the quote stays at the minimum stake, 0.25 units, $25. If Toulouse win in normal time, the bet pays $27.50; a draw or a Strasbourg win loses the $25 stake.

The scenario that wins it: the Stadium, a Toulouse block that plays out cleanly, and a Racing side relapsing into its October away habits. The one that loses it: the momentum of the 5-1 in Strasbourg heads from kick-off. The stake is calculated from my probability and the market’s, the method is public, and my results are on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.