Arsenal without Saka, Hull without midfielders: how much will the leaders win by?

Arsenal have won their last three league games 1-0, 2-0, 1-0. The leaders host Hull City at the Emirates on Saturday, three days after Prague and without Bukayo Saka: at 1.19, their win is not in question. The margin is, and that is where I am taking a position.

Without Saka, Arsenal win small

Without their winger since the Bayern game (quadriceps, three matches missed, a second scan pending, up to eight weeks feared), Arsenal have lost the player who breaks a low block. Rice, Madueke and Calafiori played the full 90 minutes at Anfield on Sunday, and the team plays in Prague on Wednesday night in the Champions League: on Saturday, the rotation will run on tired legs. William Saliba, back in collective training, is targeting December rather than a place against Hull.

Their last five matches, all competitions:

Not one of those five games ended with a three-goal margin or more.

Hull hang on, but their midfield is stretched

Two defeats in nine games, draws against Ipswich (2-2) and Brentford (1-1): the promoted side do not let games slip. They have not kept a clean sheet since the 0-0 against Aston Villa in early September, but they score enough to grab points: Mohamed Belloumi has three goals, Oli McBurnie two plus an assist, Tim Iroegbunam answered Ipswich. Sergej Jakirovic expects his fringe players to take their chance, and he will need them to:

• Matt Crooks suspended (fifth booking) and six absentees: Matazo (knee), Targett (ankle), Ansah (back), Gyabi (groin), Charlie Hughes (groin), Gourna-Douath (calf).
• Goalkeeper Jack Butland doubtful (arm).
• Nobel Mendy back in the squad after a double hernia.

The market has settled the result, not the margin

History does not help Hull: ten Arsenal wins in fourteen league meetings since 1913, and the last five, between 2015 and 2017, brought four wins and an FA Cup draw. Yet Arsenal -2 is priced at 1.87, and Hull +2 has moved from 1.95 to 2.04 within a week: the market doubts a thrashing.

Why I am taking Hull City +2

The bet: Hull City +2, at 2.04 with Unibet, stake 0.5 units ($50). It wins if Hull win, draw or lose by one goal (+$52); it is refunded if Arsenal win by two; it loses beyond that (-$50). At that price, the market gives this bet roughly a coin toss; I make it 53: Arsenal without Saka and back from Prague, against a promoted side beaten twice in nine games. Half a unit: the edge is real and so is the risk of a heavy defeat, and the stake follows that principle on the Kelly calculator. This bet joins my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.