Struff vs Ruud: the 36-year-old marathoner meets a fresh Norwegian

Jan-Lennard Struff walked off Court 1 on Wednesday night after two hours and 23 minutes against Tirante, 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(3), his second match point converted. “It was a brutal fight”, the 36-year-old said on his way off court. On Thursday, in the last 16, he meets Casper Ruud, who has played four sets in two matches all week and lost none of them.

Two matches in two days for Struff, a quiet week for Ruud

Struff’s autumn is his best late-season run in years: a final in Brussels lost to Griekspoor, a semi-final in Basel where he beat Djokovic before falling to Lehecka. Then two rounds in two days in Paris, 7-6(3) 6-3 against Gea on Tuesday, Wednesday’s marathon. At 36, that schedule leaves marks, and the marks show first in the serve, late in the third set.

Ruud dismissed Jodar, the ninth seed, on Tuesday in 1 hour 18, 6-3 6-4, closing the match with an ace. The former world number two has not dropped a set this week. Over their last ten matches, their serving numbers tell two different stories:

The head-to-head says Struff, the surface serves him too

Struff leads their rivalry 3-1, but the most recent meeting went to Ruud, 7-6(5) 6-3 in Beijing in 2023 (full record). Beijing was played outdoors; Paris plays indoors, on a court the players call quick.

Struff wins 88.9% of his service games over his last ten matches and has already played three tie-breaks in two rounds here. On a quick indoor court his plan fits in one line: serve, hold, push towards the tie-break. He has said these fast conditions suit him. The site’s model, which cannot see fatigue, expects 25.6 games: tight sets.

At 1.53, the freshness is already in the price

Ruud has shortened to 1.53 with BetMGM on Thursday morning, a little under two chances in three for the Norwegian. Struff has been backed from 2.75 into 2.62 with Betano this week. The games line sits at 23.5, either side around 2.00, with an 8% margin: my read of the match leaves no edge there either.

Why this last-16 tie is watched, not bet

I see Ruud winning this match. I do not see him winning often enough to justify 1.53: Struff’s serve on a quick court makes tie-breaks, and a tie-break plays out close to a coin toss. Without a net edge, no bet: this match will not join my public record. I watch it, I do not play it.

Third match on Court 1: the listed time is a floor, not a promise (order of play).

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.