Auxerre vs Paris FC: the worst defence in Ligue 1 hosts a poor traveller

Three goals down at the hour mark in Strasbourg, after Essugo, Godo and a Harder penalty, then reduced to ten by Dioubaté’s red card, Auxerre conceded twice more to Yassine (77th, 85th) and lost 5-1. Nine rounds in: 23 goals conceded, ten points, the worst defence in the division.

On Saturday at the Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre host Liam Rosenior’s Paris FC, fourth on 17 points, on matchday 10. The kick-off was pushed back to 19h00 at the request of the Yonne prefecture for security reasons.

Seven unbeaten at Jean-Bouin, two straight defeats on the road

Paris FC have not lost at Jean-Bouin in seven matches, including Sunday’s 3-1 over Monaco with a Sinayoko double. Away from home, the same team stalls: back-to-back defeats at Lens and Lorient, four points out of twelve on the road. Auxerre are the mirror image at home: unbeaten in three at the Abbé-Deschamps, two wins and a draw including the 1-1 against Le Mans in late October, one clean sheet in nine league games. For Rosenior, winning away from home is the condition for a shot at the podium. The last two league meetings finished level: 0-0 in Auxerre in February, 1-1 last November.

The last five matches of both teams:

Six absentees and a 3-4-3 unchanged

Will Still will not have the group that started at Strasbourg. His probable eleven stays in a 3-4-3: Nardi; Makosso, Tuanzebe, Akpa; L. Sy, Ahamada, Danois, Oppegard; Faivre, Namaso; Archer.

• Labeau-Lascary, S. Fofana, A. Dioussé, Okoh and Ekwah are out injured;
• Dioubaté, sent off on Sunday, serves his suspension;
• for Paris FC, Sangui misses out, with Koleosho, A. Camara and Ikoné doubts.

The open wide channel, and Sinayoko at the far end

Auxerre’s 3-4-3 lives with its wing-backs, L. Sy and Oppegard, high up the pitch. When the move breaks down, the space behind them is where the match is decided first, and Rosenior’s 4-2-3-1 is built to attack it: Kebbal and Simon in the wide channels, Pagis between the lines, Sinayoko running in behind. Sinayoko, a former Auxerre striker, is having a full season: eight goals, the most in the Paris FC squad. I watch the wide duels before anything else; they will decide the outcome.

At 1.87, the market has moved already

Paris FC have shortened from 2.05 to 1.87 with 1xbet since the market opened; Auxerre drifted from 3.70 to 4.33 with Bet365, the draw trades at 4.04. The move tells the same story as the form: confidence in the visitors.

I make Paris FC 55 per cent, the price implies 54. The gap is thin and so is the stake: 0.25 units on the away win. The stake pays $21.68 if Paris FC win, it costs $25 on a draw or an Auxerre victory. Our staking calculator explains the method, and the result will join the public record. The winning scenario: Kebbal and Simon work the wide spaces before the wing-backs recover. The losing one: the Abbé-Deschamps version of Auxerre, the one that held Le Mans, shuts the game down and takes a point. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.