Ruud vs Borges: the lucky loser who beat him in Basel has not dropped a set since

On 1 November Nuno Borges lost the final round of qualifying to Alex Molcan: 6-7 2-6. Handed a lucky-loser spot, he has since beaten Kouame (6-3 6-1), Khachanov (6-3 6-4) and Buse (6-0 6-2) without dropping a set: no lucky loser had reached the quarter-finals here before him. Casper Ruud has been waiting quietly: three matches, three wins, no set dropped.

The Paris week of both men, qualifying included:

What Basel says about both

On 28 October, in the Basel last sixteen, Borges turned the match on Casper Ruud: 1-6 6-3 6-4, after a first set swept away. The Norwegian has rebuilt since: beaten flat by Struff in Basel (2-6 3-6), he won his three Paris matches without dropping a set, including Thursday’s rematch against Struff (6-3 6-3), eight aces and no service game dropped. Nine days after that Basel match, they meet again.

Fatigue, counted in sets

Borges’s schedule looks like a fatigue trap: five matches in seven days, a three-set qualifying semi-final against Mannarino on 31 October, and 48 hours without rest between Basel and Paris, according to the Portuguese press. The reassuring detail: his three main-draw matches have all been straight sets, Thursday’s took 1 hour 11, and he has not dropped a set since coming in as the lucky loser. The bill is lighter than the number of matches.

The service numbers point to a tight match in games: over ten matches Borges holds 81.6% of his service games, Ruud 84.5%; on return, 29.8% for Borges against 25% for Ruud. My estimate: around 25 games played, not a demonstration.

Borges +2.5 games at 2.08: my bet

The market makes Ruud a clear favourite: 1.50, about two chances in three. A straight Borges win pays 2.90, expensive for what it asks against a player of this calibre. In between, the games handicap says better what I make of the gap. At 2.08 with Unibet on Friday, Borges +2.5 games wins if he takes the match or loses by no more than two games; it loses if Ruud pulls three games or more clear.

My model gives Borges 65.9% with two and a half games in hand; I trim that hard, to 54%: his three Paris wins came against opponents less strong than Ruud, and his week has five matches in it. Even trimmed, the price keeps an edge: the market puts Borges just under one chance in two. The quote stakes a full unit: $100, for a potential profit of $108. The logic of the stake is on the Kelly calculator; this bet will join my public record, won or lost. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.