Man Utd v Aston Villa: Emery holds Villa contract talks while the market drifts towards United

On Wednesday Unai Emery sat down with Nassef Sawiris, Roberto Olabe and Damian Vidagany. Aston Villa’s statement speaks of a “long-term strategic direction” and a commitment beyond 2029, the final year of the manager’s contract. On Friday Emery confirmed the state of play. “I had a good meeting with Nassef Sawiris, very good meeting, very positive. Let’s talk next week,” he told ESPN. Nothing is signed: the BBC expects the announcement after the weekend.

What the extension will not change is the table. United sit in the relegation zone with a single league win, and only ended a nine-match winless run on Tuesday by coming back to beat Roma 3-2 in the Champions League. “The modern Villa are better run than the modern United,” Jonathan Wilson writes in the Guardian. Villa sold Morgan Rogers and Ezri Konsa and let Youri Tielemans go to Old Trafford; the project holds.

Two enforced changes for United, a reshuffled Villa XI

Team news dropped an hour before kick-off. Both United changes are enforced: Lisandro Martínez is suspended and Carlos Baleba has a hamstring injury, so Mazraoui and Tielemans return. Tielemans faces his former club straight away. For Villa, Matty Cash is suspended and Amadou Onana is still recovering from a ruptured cruciate ligament: Emery hands Harwood-Bellis his first Premier League start, with Goretzka screening the defence and Jackson up front, three days after the 0-3 defeat at Barcelona, Villa’s first European loss of the season.

The odds have drifted against Villa

Since the market opened, a Villa win has moved from 3.02 to 3.35 with 1xbet and United’s price has shortened from 2.32 to 2.14 with Unibet, prices taken an hour before kick-off. The double chance “Villa or draw”, taken at 1.732 in our match preview, now trades at 1.803: the market rates the returns of Mazraoui and Tielemans and weighs Tuesday’s 0-3 in Barcelona more heavily than the calm on the Villa bench.

Our bet stays: Aston Villa or draw at 1.732, a minimum 0.25-unit stake, locked since Thursday. The match scenario is the one laid out in the preview. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.