What this simulator does

Even with a real edge, a run of bets can go badly for a long time. The simulator plays hundreds of runs with your settings and shows what luck can do to your bankroll: the range of outcomes, the temporary losses and the risk of losing everything.

How to use it

Describe your typical bets. Average odds and estimated probability of winning.
Set the bankroll and the stake in units. Everything is expressed in units, as in our records.
Choose the length. The number of bets per run and the number of runs simulated.
Run it again. Each simulation draws new random results.

What the results show

Risk of ruin: the share of runs in which the bankroll can no longer cover a stake.
Median final bankroll: half the runs finish above it, half below.
Median drawdown: the largest drop from a peak in a typical run.
5th–95th percentile interval: the range in which 90% of runs finish.
Chart: 40 random runs, the median in green, losing runs in red.

Worked example

Odds of 2.00, a 52% chance of winning, a 100 u bankroll, 1 u per bet, 500 bets. The expected value is 500 × (2.00 × 0.52 − 1) = +20 u, so 120 u on average at the end.

But the standard deviation over 500 bets is about 22 u. Around 90% of runs therefore finish between +20 − 37 u and +20 + 37 u: a meaningful share lose money despite a real edge. That is exactly what the simulator makes visible.

Limits

The model assumes a fixed probability, independent bets and a constant stake. Reality is messier: your estimate can be wrong and odds move. This is a simulation, not a forecast.