PSG vs Estac Troyes: after the 6-0 at Villarreal, PSG no longer need their regulars to win

“I don’t like this kind of result.” Luis Enrique had just watched his side win 6-0 at Villarreal: four goals in seventeen minutes, Neves (9th), Doué (12th), Mayulu (13th), Ruiz (17th), then two more after the break, Ruiz (50th) and Boly (78th). Five wins in a row, top spot on 20 points, and a coach who did not enjoy the film. PSG host Estac Troyes at the Parc des Princes on Saturday, kick-off moved to 21h05 by the LFP.

Six goals without four regulars

The 6-0 came without Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos or Nuno Mendes, and nothing points to a return on Saturday:

• Ousmane Dembélé, hamstring injury;
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, cruciate ligament rupture, out for several months;
• Marquinhos, hamstring;
• Nuno Mendes, thigh.

The probable eleven revolves around Safonov in goal, Zaïre-Emery with the armband, J. Neves and Beraldo in midfield, Akliouche, Mayulu and Godts up front. Four days after Villarreal, rotation will come down to rhythm.

Troyes can breathe, but barely score

Troyes’ last visit to the Parc ended 4-3, in October 2022. This ESTAC side lack the weapons for a repeat: 16th on 8 points, they beat Le Mans (2-0) for only their second win of the season, and they fail to score in every other match. Up front, Stéphane Dumont should line up Ifnaoui and Ripart around whichever striker is fit.

Three things to watch before Saturday

• Luis Enrique’s press conference on Friday, on the state of the four absentees from Villarreal;
• Nkada, off at half-time against Le Mans with an adductor problem: if he misses out, K. Diawara steps in;
• Ouzenadji and Y. Koné, missing from the probable Troyes teamsheets.

At 1.14, the winner is not for sale

PSG trade at 1.14 with BetMGM, Troyes at 22.00 with 1xbet, the draw beyond 11. There is nothing left to take on the winner, and even the 2.5-goal handicap remains a coin flip. The one area where I read the match differently from the market: the goals at both ends.

Both teams to score: no, at 1.83

PSG kept clean sheets against Villarreal (6-0) and Lyon (2-0); Troyes have failed to score in two of their last four league matches. I take both teams to score: no, at 1.83 with 888Sport. At least one side draws a blank, 0-0 included, and the 0.25-unit stake pays $20.75; both score, and $25 are gone. I make this scenario 55 per cent, about what the price implies: it still stood at 1.95 on Wednesday, and the market has since moved this way and wiped out the edge. A minimum stake then, as set out in our staking calculator; the bet will join the public record. The risk sits in Paris: without Marquinhos and Mendes, the defence has conceded two against Barcelona and one at Le Havre recently. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.