Crystal Palace v Liverpool: goalless in three, Palace face a side beaten twice in four days

Crystal Palace’s last league outing ended with ten men and no goal: 2-0 at Tottenham, with Mateta’s red card. Roughly three matches of suspension follow for the striker, and on Sunday Liverpool come to Selhurst Park. In between, Palace host Hoffenheim on Thursday night in the Europa League: three games in eight days for a team that has not scored in the Premier League for three rounds.

Three league games without a goal, and no Mateta

Newcastle, Brighton, Tottenham: 0-2, 0-5, 0-2, not a goal between them. The League Cup offered a breather, 1-0 at Fulham, but the league has Palace eighteenth, seven points from nine games. Pierre Sage, who arrived after Oliver Glasner’s departure, is holding his seat in a heavy atmosphere: other names are already circulating for it.

The personnel, this Sunday:

• suspensions and injuries: Mateta (red card at Tottenham, roughly three matches); Tomiyasu and Riad are out; Sarr (groin) remains uncertain;
• announced returns: Sage has declared Timber and Strand Larsen “ready to play”, two senior players rested last week.

Two defeats in four days for Liverpool

Liverpool, fifth on fifteen points, have lost twice this week: 0-1 against Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday, then 3-2 at Fenerbahçe on Wednesday in the Champions League, after leading 2-1 through Nyoni and Isak. Andoni Iraola is not having the calmest week either. Frimpong (muscle), Leoni (knee), Ekitike (Achilles) and Bradley (knee) are all out, and Gravenberch, troubled by a heel injury, remains “day to day”.

The last five outings of both teams:

Selhurst, a ground that does not give itself away

Recent meetings are a reminder that Selhurst is no ordinary away day: Palace beat Liverpool 2-1 there in September 2025, drew the Community Shield (2-2) and won 3-0 at Anfield in the League Cup a month later. The most recent meeting, in April, went Liverpool’s way, 3-1. Four Palace wins in the last ten meetings: few favourites carry that kind of record against the team in eighteenth.

The bet: no on both teams to score

Liverpool are favourites at 1.66 with 1xbet, and Palace have drifted to 5.25 with Bet365 from an opening 5.00: the market has let the Londoners go. I take the other side on one precise market: no on both teams to score, at 2.35 with Unibet. It wins as soon as either team fails to score (+$67.50 net on a $50 stake), and loses if both score (-$50). I put 46% on the no; the market implies barely more than 42. That is where I see the gap.

The scenario: without Mateta and goalless for three rounds, Palace do not find the net, and Liverpool need no goal-fest to take the points, as at Brighton (2-0) in late October. The bet loses if the returns of Timber and Strand Larsen give Palace a real cutting edge, or if Liverpool’s defence, still stretched at Fenerbahçe, gives up one goal too many.

0.5 units. The stake is calculated on my probability blended with the market’s, and this market is also more heavily priced than the match result, so the real edge is slimmer than it looks. A measured stake, not a total conviction play. The Kelly calculator shows how it is sized, and my public record follows it match after match. 18+, only bet what you can afford to lose.