Leeds – Tottenham: the market cannot pick a winner, so I back under 2.5 goals

Seven goals in three games for Tottenham, two in five for Leeds: at Elland Road on Saturday, these two have never looked this even to the market. Leeds are 2.68, Tottenham 2.76, the draw 3.57. One point separates ninth from twelfth, both clubs play their last match before the international break, and nobody can pick a side. Neither can I: my bet is on the goals.

Tottenham are winning without their line-breakers

Crystal Palace 2-0, Chelsea 0-2 away, Coventry 3-1: nine points from three games and ninth place. But the run was built against a Palace side reduced to ten, and it goes on without the players who beat a man in one touch: Xavi Simons (knee) and Wilson Odobert (ACL) are long-term absentees, Mykhailo Mudryk and Savio are only targeting a return after the break, as Roberto De Zerbi said on 31 October. The returns are quieter: Pedro Porro over his hamstring problem, Rodrigo Bentancur back from suspension, Lucas Bergvall and Tosin Adarabioyo possibly in the squad. James Maddison, left on the bench against Palace for physical reasons, should get minutes.

Leeds are waiting for a scrappy, deflected goal

That is how Daniel Farke sums up the drought: two goals in five games, one in the last three, eleven shots on target from 32 attempts. The week has been spent on finishing, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, fit and sharp, leads the line with four league goals. The block holds: two defeats in nine games, by one and two goals, five draws. At Elland Road, Manchester United and Crystal Palace left with no more than a point.

The lineups will settle the rest:

• Leeds: Mateo Joseph (knee) is the only certain absentee; Noah Okafor (adductor), Joe Rodon (hamstring) and Anton Stach (foot) are this week’s doubts.
• Tottenham: Lucas Bergvall (knee) and Tosin Adarabioyo (calf) are hoped for, with no guarantee of starting.
• Nico Elvedi has recovered from illness for Leeds; Archie Gray, rested against Palace, carries no physical concern.

Three open games out of the last ten

The last five league fixtures of each team:

Only three of those ten games went over two goals. Tottenham’s double chance has moved from 1.57 at the opening to 1.53: the Spurs run is already priced in. The cost of a tight game has not moved all week.

Why I am taking under 2.5 goals

At 1.92 with Unibet, a price taken on Saturday, the market gives a game of zero, one or two goals a 52.1 per cent chance. I make it 56: Leeds waiting for their scrappy goal, a Tottenham side winning as a unit, two blocks that cannot afford to lose their last game before the break. I am taking under 2.5 goals, stake 0.75 units ($75): two goals or fewer and the bet pays $69; three or more and it costs $75. The stake follows the edge I allow myself, on the principle of the Kelly calculator; this bet joins my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.