Nottingham Forest – Manchester City: the wounded favourite visits a goalless City Ground

After the defeat at Brentford (0-2), Oliver Glasner gave his squad the choice: buy into the project or leave. A group meeting followed on Sunday, and the English press report the players stayed behind their head coach, the sixth Nottingham have had in a year. Saturday brings the answer on the pitch, against a top-of-the-table side that has not won since 20 October.

Not a single goal at the City Ground all season

Nottingham Forest sit 19th, six points from nine games, five league matches without a win. At home it is bleaker: no victory, no goal at the City Ground since the season began. Coventry and Arsenal both won there by the same score, 0-1. This Forest keeps games tight for a long time, then never finds the goal that opens them.

City score everywhere and stop winning

City’s problem runs the other way: they score, they do not win. Their only two defeats of the season, both in the league, came back to back in late October, and Leipzig held them to a draw on Wednesday (2-2). Enzo Maresca has warned his squad about over-reliance on Erling Haaland and speaks about managing his players three days before kick-off. Phil Foden, who started in Leipzig on Wednesday after his suspension, is available.

Both treatment rooms are busy:

• Forest: Savona (knee, only just back running on the grass) and Ndoye (muscle) out; Igor Jesus (calf) doubtful, with Glasner reluctant to risk him just before a two-week break.
• Forest again: Dominguez (muscle) should be ready, according to Glasner.
• City: Semenyo (knee) still without a return date; Doku (calf) doubtful; Nunes back in training but listed as doubtful.

The Thursday and Friday press conferences will sharpen this picture.

The last ten results, line by line

Read together, the two runs tell the story: Forest scored in all three away games above, never at home; City scored in all five, and have not won any of the last four.

At 1.78 the market keeps its cool

A City win pays 1.78 with 1xbet, against 1.73 at the opening: the market has given a little ground back to the favourite this week. Forest are 4.75, the draw 4.27. At 1.78, the market gives City a bit more than a one-in-two chance. I make it 58 per cent: a small gap, and the stake reflects it.

My bet: City, 0.25 units and no more

I take Manchester City to win, at 1.78 with 1xbet, for 0.25 units, $25. The table convinces me, the freshness holds me back: I give them a 58 per cent chance of winning it. The stake is small because the edge is small.

I keep it on the straight win rather than a handicap: the City Ground has already seen Forest beat City 1-0, in March 2025, and the last meeting at the Etihad finished 2-2. If City win in normal time, the bet returns $19.45; a draw or a Forest win costs $25. The units are worked out on our staking calculator, and the result will go into my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.