Montpellier vs Lyon: a 69-10 hangover, a handicap that looks wide

Montpellier scored ten tries at Castres on Sunday: 69-10, the heaviest defeat in the Tarn club’s history. On Monday the market kept moving the same way: Lyon drifted from 7.00 to 7.50 for the win, and the draw-or-Lyon double chance from 5.50 to 6.50. Montpellier will win this game. Everything is in the margin, and fifteen and a half points of cover looks like a lot to me.

Eleven absentees on one side, euphoria on the other

The 69-10 hid the state of the squad, which is still stretched: close to eleven players unavailable, and a front row the staff has chosen to cover from within rather than sign a medical joker.

• Lenni Nouchi (hamstrings) and Florian Verhaeghe (psoas) went down in late October for several weeks; Verhaeghe’s return is said to be close, without a date.
• Mohamed Haouas (pubalgia, three to four months), Jordan Uelese (jaw), Gabriel Ngandebe (Achilles), Auguste Cadot and Langi Gleeson (knees) fill the long-term list, and Luka Japaridze is only just restarting after a back problem.
• Dimitri Delibes (adductors) remains a doubt, and second row Tyler Duguid, named in the France 42-man group, would miss the club the same evening: France–Fiji kicks off in Decines.

The 42-man list was reshuffled on 31 October, so Duguid’s actual release will only be clear the day before the game. With eleven men out, the worry is not the starting XV, it is the bench for the last half hour. Against Castres it did not matter. Against a top-six rival, it always does.

Lyon are not coming to visit

Lyon closed out a poor month: three defeats, then back-to-back wins, at Bayonne and against Vannes, with a try bonus and a provisional podium spot. Before the weekend both clubs sat on 18 points, split only on points difference: two top-six candidates trading places in the table, and both won with the attacking bonus. Against Vannes, Baptiste Couilloud celebrated his 75th Top 14 try, and Jiuta Wainiqolo beat 32 defenders in October.

The Lyon injury list grew at the weekend: Jérôme Rey (sprained right knee) and Maxime Gouzou, both forced off against Vannes, are out of the Montpellier trip. Sam Simmonds (post-operation) and Thomas Gallo (wrist) are nowhere near a return, Félix Lambey, Ave Maalo and Tim Hoyt remain sidelined, and Mickaël Guillard, named in the France group like Duguid, waits for the same confirmation.

Three scores that tell the month

Two of those scores are Montpellier’s at home, including the 69-10 inflicted on a Castres side in full collapse. Montpellier win big in front of their own crowd at the Septeo. Lyon score wherever they go. A tight, closed game this weekend would surprise me.

Lyon +15.5 at 1.85: my bet

The market gives Montpellier more than eight wins in ten, at 1.12. The main handicap line sits at 15.5 points: Montpellier at 1.90 with Bet365, Lyon +15.5 at 1.85 with 1xbet. I am taking Lyon +15.5: I give them a 60% chance of losing by fifteen points or fewer, where the fair market price implies 50.7%. The 69-10 feeds the odds more than it describes the match: taken against a Castres side in freefall, it says nothing about the set-piece battle Lyon can still pose. Fifteen and a half points asks Montpellier to dominate from start to finish, and their bench in the closing stages leaves me doubtful.

The stake is set by the site: 0.75 units, $75, for a $63.75 profit if it lands. Lyon win, draw or lose by fifteen points or fewer: the bet wins. Lyon lose by sixteen points or more: $75 gone. Only two bookmakers quote the full line, with a margin above 8%: part of the edge I think I see goes in commission, hence a measured stake. To run the numbers yourself, the Kelly calculator is there; the public record keeps the tally of my bets, winners and losers. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.