Djokovic vs Hijikata: the day after 2h35, on a court that plays like ice

Three break points saved at 4-4 in the second set, two hours and thirty-five minutes on court and a right shoulder worked on by the physio: Novak Djokovic’s first round in Paris went the distance. On Wednesday he plays again, against a qualifier who has not played a match since Sunday.

Tuesday took its toll

The scoreline against Valentin Vacherot, 6-7(5) 7-5 6-1, looks like a match settled once the tie-break was lost. It was not: Djokovic turned aside three break points at 4-4 in the second set before taking control, and both players called the trainer in that set, the Serb for a right shoulder massage. At 39, playing again the day after a long match is where the bill arrives, usually in a third set.

The rest of the season sets the scene: health problems that stayed vague, a first-round exit at the US Open, and calmer words in recent weeks, from a man who says he has felt better for a month and is “close to solving” his issues. In the race to Turin he sits 11th: anything short of a semi-final here and the arithmetic stops working. Asked whether Turin was the goal, he said “no” and talked about winning match by match (Tennis Majors).

The hall adds a constraint he named himself: very quick this year, “like ice”, quick enough that Vacherot served 22 aces on it (ABC News). When the court skids, the return arrives late and service games weigh more.

Hijikata won fast, then stopped

Rinky Hijikata, ranked 85th, came through qualifying with three matches on three days: Faria, Kopriva, then Darderi, dismissed 6-2 6-2 in one hour and four minutes on Sunday (Tennis Majors). Sixteenth win of the season, a personal best. Monday, he rested. His week cost him six sets and 56 games; Djokovic’s cost two matches and 70 games, including a Tuesday that mattered.

The Australian’s game suits the surface: he stays low, slices plenty and comes forward, “very skilful” up there in Djokovic’s own words. The head-to-head has given him nothing: two meetings on hard courts, two straight-sets defeats, in Brisbane at the end of 2024 (6-3 6-3) and in Miami in 2025 (6-0 7-6).

At 1.27, the market has done its arithmetic

Djokovic is priced at 1.27 with Unibet in Tuesday evening’s snapshot, roughly four chances in five for him. Hijikata is 4.00 with 1xbet, in from an opening 5.30. The games line, 22, is quoted at 1.82 for over and 1.89 for under: the market cannot decide between the favourite rolling through in two sets and the counter-puncher hanging on to every service game.

No bet: the market got this one right

I did my numbers before looking at the prices: 79% for Djokovic, 45% for over 22.5 games, 49% for Hijikata with a 4-game handicap. Set against the odds, none of them leaves a clear edge: at these prices there is nothing to take. Betting here would mean paying for the Serb’s favouritism and getting nothing back.

So I pass, and I keep the reading instead of the bet: this match will tell us whether Djokovic’s body absorbs the back-to-back. If he serves and returns at Tuesday’s pace to the end, the alarm is behind him and his Paris week opens; if the shoulder creeps back into the match, it ends here. My next bets go where I see an edge: the list is public, and so is the way I size a stake.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.