Struff vs Gea: the favourite has not finished a match in three weeks

Arthur Gea walked off the Shanghai court on 15 October, retired at 1-4 in the first set against Davidovich Fokina. The pain had appeared at the morning warm-up; he located it in the psoas and called the stop necessary for the end of the season, unsure he would even make it onto the court. On Tuesday he returns at the Rolex Paris Masters on a wild-card, and the market makes him favourite over Jan-Lennard Struff. That ranking is what I question.

A full season, a stopped body

The Frenchman’s season justifies the odds: 48 wins against 18 losses, a title in Beijing at the end of September, 31-6 on hard courts. Ranked 44th on 2 November, a career high, and playing at home. On paper the market is right.

The calendar says something else: since that Shanghai quarter-final, Gea has not finished a single match, three weeks without a completed match. Somewhere in his legs the September rhythm exists; nobody knows where, and the pain started in the psoas, the muscle that flexes the hip and powers the serve’s leg drive as well as the first step on return.

Struff: nine matches in twelve days

Struff arrives from the other end of the calendar: a final in Brussels on 25 October, then four matches in Basel through to the semi-final, 105 games played in seven days, Djokovic beaten 6-7 7-5 7-6 along the way, before losing 6-3 5-7 4-6 to Lehecka on Saturday. Two days of rest, a short trip from Switzerland: the body is loaded, the hand is warm.

In Paris as a special exempt, ranked 47th, he brings exactly what Gea lost: matches. His serve holds at 87.2% over ten matches; he plays tie-breaks and wins tight games, and has for a fortnight. Against him, Gea’s return, 31.3% of return games won this season, is on paper the better of the two: provided the hand survived the layoff.

Gea’s numbers predate the stop: they describe a player nobody has seen since.

What to watch

• Gea’s physical state: “I have no pain, that is the most important thing. I am eager to play”, he told the weekend press; Tuesday is still the first real test of the comeback.
• The first set: if Gea keeps pace for forty minutes without dropping, the layoff is digested and my bet is in trouble.
• The order of play is out: fifth match on Court 1 on Tuesday, after Bonzi-Fritz, late in the afternoon.

The bet: Struff to win

At 1.84, Gea’s odds pay for the season, the ranking and the French crowd; they leave out three weeks without a match after psoas pain. With Betway, Struff has shortened from 2.08 to 2.00 since Sunday evening: the market is starting to see the same missing rhythm. Neither price has moved since the announcement, Gea’s comments included. I make the German 53% where the market has him a slight underdog, and the scenario that wins the bet is the one from his last fortnight: a Struff who holds serve, tight sets, and a Gea whose first break costs more than before the stop.

The margin is thin and the stake says so: 0.25 units, $25, for a net $25 if Struff wins, the stake lost otherwise. If Gea is back at his September level, my 53% is wrong, and absorbing exactly that is what the minimum stake is for. The stake calculation is on the Kelly calculator; the result goes on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.