Van Assche vs Hijikata: the last Frenchman against Djokovic’s conqueror

On Friday on Centre Court, the second quarter-final in Paris carries no seeded player: Luca Van Assche, the last Frenchman in the draw, waits for a qualifier who has just knocked out Djokovic. A first meeting between the two, and a first Masters 1000 quarter-final for each.

Hijikata, five matches this week, Djokovic on the way

Come through qualifying without dropping a set, Rinky Hijikata then handled L. Darderi 6-2 6-2, came from a set down against Djokovic, 2-6 6-3 6-3, and beat T. M. Etcheverry 2-6 6-3 7-5 on Thursday. It is his best season and his first Masters 1000 quarter-final, the first for a qualifier in Paris since Gaston in 2021. Five matches in seven days, twelve sets, 111 games: the day before his quarter-final he needed three sets against Etcheverry. A loud crowd does not put him off: some “pretty loud fans playing the clowns” gave him a boost, he says.

Van Assche, Lyon’s revenge in his legs

Van Assche has played only three matches in the main draw: Navone 6-3 7-5, Tien 7-6 6-4 in 2 h 02, then on Thursday the Lyon revenge, Musetti beaten 7-5 3-6 6-4 in about two and a half hours, the same Musetti who had beaten him in the Lyon ATP 250 quarter-final in a match that ended at 1.17 in the morning. Seven sets in seven days, against the Australian’s twelve. “Physically I will have no problem playing on Friday, but I have to make sure I recover well, to be in full shape tomorrow and give everything,” the Frenchman summed up, playing at home a quarter-final he calls “a childhood dream”.

Service numbers read with their opponents

Over their last ten matches, the service games favour Hijikata: 83.5% of service games won, against 78.6% for Van Assche. Both windows come with their opponents attached: half of Hijikata’s last ten matches were qualifying rounds against lower-ranked players, and Van Assche’s record also runs through Lyon qualifying. The contest will be decided on return, against second serves. Van Assche expects as much: the surface “suits Hijikata well too”, he says, and it will be “another incredible fight”.

At 1.61, the market has done its sums

Van Assche is still priced 1.61, and Hijikata has drifted out from 2.35 to 2.40 with 1xbet since the open: the market leans a little more to the Frenchman. My read leans to the Frenchman, carried by freshness and by the crowd, but without conviction: I make it 62% at most, and at that price 1.61 is still too short to back. The games market offers nothing better. No bet on this quarter-final: no value, no stake, the rule of this site is the same for all my matches.

The winner meets whoever comes out of Shelton vs Paul in the semi-final. Nothing goes on the public record for this one: a fair price is one we can watch from the stands.