{"id":10875,"date":"2026-10-21T20:40:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T18:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/chelsea-vs-tottenham-a-broken-jaw-for-martinez-and-chelsea-still-shortening\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T21:08:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T19:08:11","slug":"chelsea-tottenham-prediction-2026-10-24","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/premier-league\/chelsea-tottenham-prediction-2026-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Chelsea vs Tottenham: a broken jaw for Martinez, and Chelsea still shortening"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Saturday&#8217;s London derby is one of contrasts: Chelsea, fourth, are on back-to-back wins; Tottenham, 16th, have just crawled out of their first win of the season. The market has moved all week without changing sides: Chelsea&#8217;s price, opened at 1.902, shortened to 1.755 in midweek, then eased back to 1.788 on Friday with 1xbet; Tottenham&#8217;s has come back from 4.75 to 4.50. The hierarchy holds, and Emi Martinez&#8217;s jaw, broken last Saturday, has barely counted in it.<\/p>\n<h2>Two wins, one clean sheet, one goalkeeper down<\/h2>\n<p>Chelsea beat Bournemouth 5-1, then Everton 0-2 on 17 October: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/sport\/football\/articles\/c6rryqq00yp4o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a Pedro Neto double<\/a> and a first clean sheet in the league since nine months and 23 matches. That clean sheet came at a cost: Martinez fractured his jaw in the collision with Branthwaite. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chelseafc.com\/en\/news\/article\/injury-update-emiliano-martinez\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Operated on successfully<\/a>, he is left without a timeline: the club announce no duration, the player talks of a return &#8220;within a few weeks&#8221;, the Argentine press of 45 to 60 days. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.football.london\/chelsea-fc\/news\/nine-chelsea-games-emi-martinez-34791481.amp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Penders is expected in goal<\/a>. Captain Reece James (knee) remains out for several weeks; Emegha, out after a knock, only returns to training next week; Chavarria pulled out of the Everton game with a niggle despite being due to start, Hato replacing him.<\/p>\n<h2>Tottenham come up for air, and hope for their full-backs<\/h2>\n<p>Tottenham&#8217;s first league win of the season came on 19 October, 3-1 over Coventry: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aol.com\/articles\/tottenham-3-1-coventry-zerbi-214918000.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maddison, making his first start in eighteen months<\/a> after his cruciate, scored; Kulusevski returned after 526 days out. De Zerbi set up with a back three because of injuries, Kudus right, Robertson left. On Friday, the Standard expects both full-backs back: Porro, a month out with a hamstring injury, has returned to training; Udogie (knee, picked up against Manchester United), protected against Coventry, is in contention. Tosin, Robertson and Marmoush, who came off on Monday with knocks, are expected fit. Still unavailable:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bentancur, suspended: he is serving the second of his three-match ban, opened by a red card for a headbutt against Manchester United;<\/li>\n<li>Bergvall (knee) and Savio (muscle): a few more weeks;<\/li>\n<li>Odobert (cruciate) and Xavi Simons: early 2027;<\/li>\n<li>Mudryk, recovering from an ankle injury, and ineligible against his parent club anyway.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>A derby decided by one goal<\/h2>\n<p>The last three league meetings all went Chelsea&#8217;s way, all by one goal: 2-1 in May, 1-0 in November, 1-0 in April. This derby has a familiar face: Chelsea in front, without a cushion. The doubt sits in goal, where Penders is expected to take over.<\/p>\n<h2>My bet: Chelsea, 0.25 units<\/h2>\n<p>I make Chelsea a 59% chance, where the 1.755 price promises 57%. The edge is thin, and so is the stake: 0.25 units, $25. Chelsea win: +$18.88 net. Draw or a Tottenham win: -$25. I take this bet with the Martinez file open in front of me: the level of this team covers a rookie in goal, and nothing beyond that. The <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> rounds down, and rightly.<\/p>\n<p>Win or lose, this bet goes on my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>0-2: Penders own goal hands Tottenham a first Stamford Bridge win since 2018<\/h2>\n<p>The one doubt I left in my analysis decided the match, and against me: Mike Penders, standing in for the injured Emi Martinez, punched the ball into his own net on 77 minutes from a Mateus Fernandes corner, under pressure from van Hecke. Cole Palmer collected a second yellow on 80 for stepping on Conor Gallagher&#8217;s ankle, and Mathys Tel sealed it on 87, running from his own half. Tottenham win at Stamford Bridge for the first time since 2018, only the second time in their Premier League history, after 70 per cent of the ball in the first half.<\/p>\n<p>My Chelsea win at 1.755 is lost: $25 on the public record. The close at 1.93 shows a market that slid toward Tottenham all the way to kick-off; my Wednesday price was worth less than the last one shown. The minimum 0.25-unit stake kept the damage of a bet with no edge to 25 $. When I read the next derby, I will start with the question that decided this one: who is in goal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chelsea fall 0-2 to Tottenham, a Penders own goal and a Palmer red card: my Chelsea win at 1.755 loses, $25 on the public record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12002,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction: two straight wins and the derby at home, but a new goalkeeper. I take Chelsea at 1.755 with 1xbet, 0.25 units.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Chelsea","ba_away_name":"Tottenham","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-24 16:30:00","ba_venue":"Stamford Bridge","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1557439","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,71],"class_list":["post-10875","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-premier-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chelsea vs Tottenham: a broken jaw for Martinez, and Chelsea still shortening &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction: two straight wins and the derby at home, but a new goalkeeper. 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