{"id":11183,"date":"2026-10-22T20:51:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T18:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/crystal-palace-v-newcastle-the-leagues-worst-defence-hosts-a-fresher-wobbling-visitor\/"},"modified":"2026-10-25T17:16:01","modified_gmt":"2026-10-25T16:16:01","slug":"crystal-palace-newcastle-prediction-2026-10-25","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/premier-league\/crystal-palace-newcastle-prediction-2026-10-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Crystal Palace v Newcastle: the league\u2019s worst defence hosts a fresher, wobbling visitor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Crystal Palace brought a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.turkiyetoday.com\/sports\/10-man-besiktas-holds-crystal-palace-to-2-2-in-europa-league-3230856\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2-2 back from Turkey<\/a> on Thursday night, against a Besiktas side reduced to ten. A week after apologising for the 5-0 at Brighton, Pierre Sage has a leaking defence and three days of recovery, before hosting a Newcastle side who last played on 17 October. This one will turn less on the table, 14th against 11th, than on freshness and defensive holes.<\/p>\n<h2>The league\u2019s worst defence plays at home<\/h2>\n<p>Palace have conceded 17 goals in seven league matches, the worst record in the Premier League, for nine scored. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.skysports.com\/football\/brighton-and-hove-albion-vs-crystal-palace\/report\/559506\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">5-0 at Brighton<\/a> left marks: Sage had to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/sport\/football\/articles\/cq1kdzp093jwo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">apologise to the supporters<\/a>. The schedule offered no relief: Lyon, Brighton, Besiktas, three away trips in eight days, the last one on Thursday in the Europa League.<\/p>\n<p>The block still has answers: the 3-1 over Nottingham Forest on 11 October, just before the dark run, showed a team that plays its way out of its own half. The trouble sits behind them, and it is a big one.<\/p>\n<h2>Newcastle leak too, but they rested<\/h2>\n<p>Newcastle lost 1-4 at Coventry on 12 October, then 0-1 at home to Aston Villa on the 17th. Matthias Jaissle, who arrived in August, is going through his first real storm on the bench. Eleventh on eight points, his side shows a goal difference of -4, barely better than Palace\u2019s -8. The gap is in the legs, and in a game between two blocks that leave space in transition, the legs of the team that has not played for eight days are worth a lot.<\/p>\n<h2>Recent duels have smiled on Selhurst Park<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Competition<\/th>\n<th>Fixture<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>12 April 2026<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Crystal Palace &#8211; Newcastle<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>4 January 2026<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Newcastle &#8211; Crystal Palace<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>16 April 2025<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Newcastle &#8211; Crystal Palace<\/td>\n<td>5-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>30 November 2024<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Crystal Palace &#8211; Newcastle<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24 April 2024<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Crystal Palace &#8211; Newcastle<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Across the last five meetings, Palace have won twice at home, including the 2-1 last April; Newcastle answered with a 2-0 in January.<\/p>\n<h2>What the treatment tables change<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>On Palace\u2019s side, only Riad (knee) and Tomiyasu (calf) are definite absentees.<\/li>\n<li>Henderson (foot) returned to full training on Monday, Timber missed Thursday\u2019s game with an unspecified problem, and Larsen came off injured at Besiktas: three doubts, not three absentees.<\/li>\n<li>Mateta is back: he started on Thursday, his first start since the opening weekend.<\/li>\n<li>Newcastle travel without Jaouen (muscle, per the club\u2019s sheet) and Livramento (knee); <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newcastleunited.com\/en\/news\/matthias-jaissles-team-news-update-elanga-and-ramsey-latest-ahead-of-palace-trip\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jaissle hopes to have Elanga (knee) in the squad<\/a>, and Ramsey (thigh) has been back on the pitch this week after four matches out.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This picture is less kind to Newcastle than I wrote on Thursday: the players I had down as out at Palace are doubts, and Mateta is back. The freshness argument still stands.<\/p>\n<h2>At 2.425, the market has read the calendar<\/h2>\n<p>Newcastle\u2019s price has moved from 2.57 to 2.425 with 1xbet since the market opened, while Palace have stayed flat at 3.02; it has kept sliding, the best price on the market dropping to 2.385 on Friday. The market has done its maths: the Turkish trip on one side, eight days of rest on the other. At 2.425, it gives Newcastle just over four chances in ten, 41.2%. I make it 43% Newcastle, 30% Palace, 27% draw: a real but modest gap, and it shrinks as the price falls.<\/p>\n<p>I took Newcastle at 2.425 with 1xbet on Thursday, at the minimum stake: 0.25 units, $25, for a potential gain of $35.63 if Newcastle win, -$25 on a draw or a Palace win. To scale such a stake to your own bankroll, the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> does the work; the result of this bet will join my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>2-0: the fresh legs did the talking<\/h2>\n<p>I leaned on freshness, and it showed in the score: Newcastle last played on 17 October, Palace came back from Turkey on Thursday, and the 2-0 at Selhurst Park fits that imbalance of legs. Palace keep conceding: 19 goals in eight league games, two more for a defence that was already the division&#8217;s leakiest before kick-off.<\/p>\n<p>Won: Newcastle at 2.425, the minimum stake of 0.25 units, so +$35.62 on the bankroll. The price had slid from 2.57 to 2.425 since the open; the market had read this match well, and I followed it closely, at a reduced stake.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Newcastle won 2-0 at Selhurst Park, and my bet taken at 2.425 is won: minimum stake, +$35.62.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12166,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: Palace come off a Thursday 2-2 in Turkey with three days\u2019 rest; Newcastle are fresh. My prediction: Newcastle to win at 2.425.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Crystal Palace","ba_away_name":"Newcastle","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-25 14:00:00","ba_venue":"Selhurst Park","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1557441","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,71],"class_list":["post-11183","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-premier-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crystal Palace v Newcastle: the league\u2019s worst defence hosts a fresher, wobbling visitor &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: Palace come off a Thursday 2-2 in Turkey with three days\u2019 rest; Newcastle are fresh. 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For eight years he has built his predictions around line-ups, team form and the fixture schedule. He follows Ligue 1 and the European competitions most closely.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/authors\\\/lucas-morel\\\/\",\"knowsAbout\":[\"Football\",\"Ligue 1 and European competitions\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Crystal Palace v Newcastle: the league\u2019s worst defence hosts a fresher, wobbling visitor &#183; Bankroll Atlas","description":"Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: Palace come off a Thursday 2-2 in Turkey with three days\u2019 rest; Newcastle are fresh. 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My prediction: Newcastle to win at 2.425.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/premier-league\/crystal-palace-newcastle-prediction-2026-10-25\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/premier-league\/crystal-palace-newcastle-prediction-2026-10-25\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/premier-league\/crystal-palace-newcastle-prediction-2026-10-25\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-crystal-palace-newcastle-en-9b535d6c.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-crystal-palace-newcastle-en-9b535d6c.webp","width":1200,"height":675,"caption":"Crystal Palace \u2013 Newcastle \u00b7 Premier League \u00b7 0-2"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/premier-league\/crystal-palace-newcastle-prediction-2026-10-25\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Matchs","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Crystal Palace v Newcastle: the league\u2019s worst defence hosts a fresher, wobbling visitor"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","name":"Bankroll Atlas","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization","name":"Bankroll Atlas","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Bankroll Atlas"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/d9b64dcabe2a0b77c6f9299cba267225","name":"Lucas Morel","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aab4980f80eb24aef314b0f47e15318faf374e1ca9cd67794cec13f643c0feff?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aab4980f80eb24aef314b0f47e15318faf374e1ca9cd67794cec13f643c0feff?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aab4980f80eb24aef314b0f47e15318faf374e1ca9cd67794cec13f643c0feff?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Lucas Morel"},"description":"A former amateur player and youth coach, Lucas gradually turned his passion into tactical analysis. 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He follows Ligue 1 and the European competitions most closely.","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/authors\/lucas-morel\/","knowsAbout":["Football","Ligue 1 and European competitions"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ba_match\/11183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ba_match"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/ba_match"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ba_match\/11183\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12252,"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ba_match\/11183\/revisions\/12252"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"ba_sport","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ba_sport?post=11183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}