{"id":11217,"date":"2026-10-22T20:57:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T18:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/marseille-v-le-havre-back-from-graz-om-meet-the-bottom-club\/"},"modified":"2026-10-25T20:11:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-25T19:11:15","slug":"marseille-le-havre-prediction-2026-10-25","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/marseille-le-havre-prediction-2026-10-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Marseille v Le Havre: back from Graz, OM meet the bottom club"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>OM lost 0-1 at Sturm Graz on Thursday, a third defeat in three Europa League games after the 1-4 at Besiktas and the 0-1 against Olympiakos. On Sunday at the V\u00e9lodrome they host Le Havre, 18th, 2 points, no wins. Two faces in one week: Bruno Genesio himself called it a start to the season that had been \u201ca bit strange\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/rmcsport.bfmtv.com\/football\/europa-league\/direct-om-suivez-la-conf-de-genesio-avant-le-match-de-ligue-europa-au-sturm-graz_LN-202610210790.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">before leaving for Austria<\/a>. This match keeps its slot: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footmarseille.com\/163157-om-le-havre-maintenu-un-autre-match-de-la-8e-journee-reporte\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">maintained at this stage<\/a>, while Toulouse &#8211; Troyes, same matchday, was pushed back by 24 hours.<\/p>\n<h2>Europe wears them down, the league lets them breathe<\/h2>\n<p>Since late September, OM have won both league trips, 2-0 at Troyes and 5-2 at Angers, and lost all three European matches. Genesio refused to label Graz a \u201clast-chance game\u201d and wants continuity with what the team showed at Angers. He travelled to Austria <a href=\"https:\/\/rmcsport.bfmtv.com\/football\/europa-league\/direct-sturm-graz-om-suivez-le-match-de-la-3e-journee-de-ligue-europa-en-live_LS-202610220445.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">with several youngsters<\/a>, including Antoine Valero, who could make his debut. Nothing says that changed eleven will start again on Sunday, three days after the trip back from Graz.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking on Saturday, Genesio described <a href=\"https:\/\/www.onzemondial.com\/ligue-1\/om-cest-un-probleme-collectif-genesio-diagnostique-la-crise-traversee-avant-le-havre-1004713\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a squad \u201cquestioning itself\u201d<\/a>, put OM among the teams \u201cwho have the points they deserve\u201d and Le Havre among those \u201cnot rewarded\u201d and \u201cnot where they should be\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2>Le Havre are playing for their survival, mentally first<\/h2>\n<p>HAC sit bottom, 2 points from seven games. Didier Digard set the scene before the Lille game in early October: \u201cThis table is a truth\u201d, he said, asking his squad to face it. Since then came the 1-3 defeat against Auxerre, then this trip to the V\u00e9lodrome, before hosting PSG. The fixture list gives them no breather.<\/p>\n<h2>Five duels, five Marseille wins<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Competition<\/th>\n<th>Fixture<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>10 May 2026<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre &#8211; Marseille<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>18 October 2025<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>Marseille &#8211; Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10 May 2025<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre &#8211; Marseille<\/td>\n<td>1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>5 January 2025<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>Marseille &#8211; Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>5-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>19 May 2024<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre &#8211; Marseille<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Across the last five meetings, Le Havre have taken nothing from OM, and the last two receptions at the V\u00e9lodrome finished 6-2 and then 5-1. Those scorelines belong to different squads; the trend works as a landmark.<\/p>\n<h2>H\u00f8jbjerg starts, Pemb\u00e9l\u00e9 still out<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>On the Marseille side, the official eleven: Abdelli, de Lange, Paix\u00e3o, Nnadi, H\u00f8jbjerg, Harit, Gouiri, Emerson, Egan-Riley, Aguerd and Weah. H\u00f8jbjerg, back in the group at Graz, starts; Cornelius (hip) and Koum (ill), who missed the trip, do not start either, and neither does Valero, the youngster from the trip to Austria.<\/li>\n<li>On the Le Havre side the six absentees are confirmed: Mpasi and Mambimbi (Achilles tendon), Jelert (thigh), Pemb\u00e9l\u00e9 (muscular), A. Toure and Zagadou (knee). The eleven: Gallon, Ebonog, Fofana, Mwanga, Ndiaye, Ouziad, Richardson, Samatta, Seko, Koffi Vinette and Touba.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>At 1.602, the market has already priced everything in<\/h2>\n<p>The main market has barely moved since I read it on Thursday: 1.602 for OM with 1xbet, 4.825 for the draw, 5.44 for Le Havre. At 1.602, it makes OM 62.4% to win. My estimate is also 62%, with 23% for the draw and 15% for Le Havre. I have no clear edge on this price: the fatigue of the return from Graz and the possible rotations hold my reading exactly where the market has set it. The line-ups change nothing to it. So I lean towards OM at the minimum stake, and I say so plainly.<\/p>\n<p>I took OM at 1.602 with 1xbet on Thursday, at the minimum stake of 0.25 units, $25: an OM win pays +$15.05, a draw or a Le Havre win costs -$25. The <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> sets this kind of amount against your own bankroll; the result will join my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>4-3: the bet lands, but the V\u00e9lodrome shook<\/h2>\n<p>OM won, and the league keeps breathing for them: after the 2-0 at Troyes and the 5-2 at Angers, a third straight Ligue 1 win. The score still tells the disorder: four goals scored, three conceded at home against the bottom side missing six players. Le Havre did not play this match like a team on two points; they leave the V\u00e9lodrome with three goals scored.<\/p>\n<p>Won: OM at 1.602, the minimum stake of 0.25 units, so +$15.05 on the public record. I had taken it with no clear edge on the price; the close came down to 1.500, and the market ended up believing harder than I did.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OM won 4-3 at the V\u00e9lodrome, a third straight Ligue 1 win, but three conceded against the bottom side. My OM bet at 1.602 is won: +$15.05 on the public record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12319,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Marseille vs Le Havre prediction: OM back from Graz host the bottom club. My tip: Marseille to win at 1.602 with 1xbet, minimum stake, no clear edge.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Marseille","ba_away_name":"Le Havre","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-25 16:15:00","ba_venue":"Orange V\u00e9lodrome","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1552796","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,51],"class_list":["post-11217","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-ligue-1-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Marseille v Le Havre: back from Graz, OM meet the bottom club &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Marseille vs Le Havre prediction: OM back from Graz host the bottom club. 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My tip: Marseille to win at 1.602 with 1xbet, minimum stake, no clear edge.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/marseille-le-havre-prediction-2026-10-25\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Marseille v Le Havre: back from Graz, OM meet the bottom club &#183; Bankroll Atlas","og_description":"Marseille vs Le Havre prediction: OM back from Graz host the bottom club. 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My tip: Marseille to win at 1.602 with 1xbet, minimum stake, no clear edge.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/marseille-le-havre-prediction-2026-10-25\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/marseille-le-havre-prediction-2026-10-25\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/marseille-le-havre-prediction-2026-10-25\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-marseille-le-havre-en-2143bfa7.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-marseille-le-havre-en-2143bfa7.webp","width":1200,"height":675,"caption":"Marseille \u2013 Le Havre \u00b7 Ligue 1 \u00b7 4-3"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/marseille-le-havre-prediction-2026-10-25\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Matchs","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Marseille v Le Havre: back from Graz, OM meet the bottom club"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","name":"Bankroll Atlas","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization","name":"Bankroll Atlas","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Bankroll Atlas"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/d9b64dcabe2a0b77c6f9299cba267225","name":"Lucas Morel","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aab4980f80eb24aef314b0f47e15318faf374e1ca9cd67794cec13f643c0feff?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aab4980f80eb24aef314b0f47e15318faf374e1ca9cd67794cec13f643c0feff?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aab4980f80eb24aef314b0f47e15318faf374e1ca9cd67794cec13f643c0feff?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Lucas Morel"},"description":"A former amateur player and youth coach, Lucas gradually turned his passion into tactical analysis. 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