{"id":11401,"date":"2026-10-23T11:35:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T09:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/vannes-are-favourites-at-1-73-without-a-win-ill-take-clermont-2-5\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T17:08:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T15:08:40","slug":"vannes-clermont-prediction-2026-10-24","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/vannes-clermont-prediction-2026-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Vannes are favourites at 1.73 without a win: I&#8217;ll take Clermont +2.5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Six matches, no win, one point. Vannes prop up the Top 14, France&#8217;s top division, and the market still makes them favourites at La Rabine on Saturday: 1.73 with Betway on Friday, against 2.22 with 1xbet for a Clermont side that won the last two meetings between the clubs. When a promoted team without a single victory starts as favourite, I read the game twice before touching it.<\/p>\n<h2>A favourite that has won nothing yet<\/h2>\n<p>Vannes are no ordinary bottom club. Five of their six defeats have come by fewer than ten points. The newcomers have conceded only 56 penalties in six rounds, the best tally in the league, win 88% of their lineouts and 89% of their one-on-one tackles. They also play more rugby than anyone else, around 39 minutes of effective playing time per match. Spitzer put it plainly in his press conference: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asm-rugby.com\/actus\/2026-10-22-16-02-50-avis-de-tempete-sur-la-rabine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;all we lacked was one try per match&#8221;<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The starters from round six against Perpignan skipped the European trip to Harlequins: they arrive fresh, in front of their own crowd. Captain Gorrissen is asking for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quinzemondial.com\/top-14\/vannes-il-nous-manque-5-a-10-le-constat-lucide-de-gorrissen-avant-clermont-829231\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;5 or 10% more effort&#8221;<\/a>. Given the week Clermont are having, he can believe it.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont travel with a sickbay full of forwards<\/h2>\n<p>Clermont arrive on a three-match losing run: 25 points adrift of La Rochelle, a one-point loss to UBB, then 25 more against Leinster in the Champions Cup. Eleventh in the <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/classement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Top 14 table<\/a>, three points off sixth place, with an infirmary stacked with forwards. Urios is the first to sound the warning: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/22\/top-14-classement-confiance-jeu-pourquoi-clermont-joue-une-grande-partie-de-sa-saison-a-vannes-13613373.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;we must prepare for a very difficult match&#8221;<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tolofua, Ratuva, Muarua and Veschambre are out for many more weeks, Sowakula too: the whole sick list is in the pack.<\/li>\n<li>Marcos Kremer has served his suspension and is available in Vannes.<\/li>\n<li>Rob Leota, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asm-rugby.com\/actus\/2026-10-22-10-01-39-rob-leota-jusqu-au-31-janvier-2027\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">signed as an extra player until 31 January<\/a>, is still awaiting his registration.<\/li>\n<li>Vannes lose Sione Mafileo (foot), and medical joker Toomaga-Allen will not be qualified.<\/li>\n<li>Storm Austin sweeps the Breton coast the day before: gusts are likely at La Rabine on Saturday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Two clubs playing their season on the same match, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asm-rugby.com\/actus\/2026-10-21-17-30-19-pres-de-700-supporters-de-l-asm-a-vannes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nearly 700 Clermont supporters are expected<\/a> at La Rabine, and wind on top. This smells like a game settled by a whisker, and that is exactly what I want to back.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont +2.5 at 1.85: the tight-game bet<\/h2>\n<p>I am not looking for an outright winner. Vannes have won nothing, Clermont have stopped winning, and Vannes&#8217; first victory already has its price. The handicap lets me back a tight game without naming who wins it: Clermont +2.5 at 1.85 with 1xbet on Friday.<\/p>\n<p>The bet wins if Clermont win, draw or lose by two points or fewer; on a $25 stake, the profit is $21.25. It loses if Vannes win by three points or more. At 1.85, the market gives the line just over an even chance; I make it 57%. Only three bookmakers quote the line, and they take a generous cut.<\/p>\n<p>The price on a Vannes win has shortened again this week, from 1.75 to 1.73 with Betway; the handicap line has not moved. The market leans a little more towards Vannes. Nothing disproves my reading.<\/p>\n<p>Minimum stake, then: 0.25 units. The market has read this match well; I keep my reading without inflating the stake. To size your own, the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">staking calculator<\/a> does the work, and this bet goes on the <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a> as it is. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>27-26: Vannes overturn Clermont in the closing stages<\/h2>\n<p>Clermont led 23-6 on 46 minutes, with tries from Jauneau and Dzmanashvili and the rest from the boot of Plummer. Vannes then ran in three tries in twenty minutes: Sanerivi (56th), Iashagashvili (66th) and captain Gorrissen (79th), all converted by Bouthier. 27-26, a first win of the season for the promoted side, a fourth straight defeat for Clermont.<\/p>\n<p>My Clermont +2.5 lands by a single point: $21.25 net on a $25 stake, on the public record. That was the tight-margin bet written on Friday, and it got there by the wildest road. The price closed at 1.80: the market had the winner right, and the minimum stake was the right price.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vannes overturn Clermont 27-26 in the closing stages for a first win of the season: my Clermont +2.5 at 1.85 lands, $21.25 net on the public record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11853,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Vannes vs Clermont prediction: the winless bottom club of the French Top 14 is the market favourite. The bet: Clermont +2.5 at 1.85 with 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Vannes","ba_away_name":"Clermont","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-24 12:30:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54123","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[40,101],"class_list":["post-11401","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby-en","ba_sport-top-14-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Vannes are favourites at 1.73 without a win: I&#8217;ll take Clermont +2.5 &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Vannes vs Clermont prediction: the winless bottom club of the French Top 14 is the market favourite. 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