{"id":1191,"date":"2026-09-28T03:09:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:09:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/valencia-baskonia-prediction-2026-09-29\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T23:36:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T21:36:48","slug":"valencia-baskonia-prediction-2026-09-29","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/valencia-baskonia-prediction-2026-09-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Valencia Basket v Baskonia: Shorts can test a defence still under repair"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Sunday, iLERNA Lleida came and won at the Roig Arena in the Liga Endesa opener. On Tuesday, the same arena hosts Baskonia for Valencia&#8217;s first European home game. That defeat cools the handicap; my bet on the winner, placed on Sunday night, stands.<\/p>\n<h2>In Burgos, Baskonia won the game and lost the rebound<\/h2>\n<p>Baskonia edged Burgos 97-98, coming back from nine points down in the last three minutes. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elcorreo.com\/baskonia\/leccion-supervivencia-sangria-zona-20260927172442-nt.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">survival lesson<\/a> hides the number that says everything: 22 offensive rebounds conceded, against only 23 defensive rebounds taken. A team giving away that many second chances in the league will give them away in the EuroLeague too, and Olympiacos already cashed in.<\/p>\n<p>Paolo Galbiati left Burgos relieved, happy with Faried and Baugh, but he admits the squad still needs completing: only four academy players remain after Rafa Villar and Khalifa Diop left. Markus Howard has offered only a few brushstrokes since the official season began, and Sedekerskis arrives from 15 points against Olympiacos after a brief physical scare.<\/p>\n<h2>Valencia show two faces<\/h2>\n<p>The Lleida defeat comes two days before the European date, and it was the first at home this season. Xavi Albert&#8217;s group showed the other face in Istanbul: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valenciabasket.com\/victoria-en-el-debut-euroleague-en-un-thriller-en-turquia-94-96\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a 94-96 win decided at the death<\/a>, closed by TJ Shorts after six straight points from Nikola Miroti\u0107.<\/p>\n<p>Shorts finished with 26, Miroti\u0107 with 13 and Kam Taylor with 12, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/euroleague\/news\/valencia-launches-new-era-to-burst-besiktass-bubble\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">EuroLeague report<\/a>. Stopping Shorts alone will not be enough if the ball swings out clean, and that is exactly the test for a Baskonia defence in repair.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For Valencia, Gonzalo Corbal\u00e1n, Lucas Mar\u00ed and Yankuba Sima are doubtful; they did not travel to Istanbul.<\/li>\n<li>The round 1 doubts over Miroti\u0107, Rivero and Sako look cleared: Miroti\u0107 played against Lleida on Sunday.<\/li>\n<li>For Baskonia, Pedro Souza is a coach&#8217;s decision; no injured player is listed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The two European openers and the trip to Burgos:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Competition<\/th>\n<th>Fixture<\/th>\n<th>Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>EuroLeague round 1<\/td>\n<td>Baskonia v Olympiacos<\/td>\n<td>89-106<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Liga Endesa round 1<\/td>\n<td>Burgos v Baskonia<\/td>\n<td>97-98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EuroLeague round 1<\/td>\n<td>Be\u015fikta\u015f v Valencia<\/td>\n<td>94-96<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>At 1.31 I keep Valencia, and the market followed<\/h2>\n<p>Valencia to win at 1.31 with Betano, 1 unit ($100): my pick, recorded on Sunday night, and it stands. Since then the market has taken the same road: Valencia 1.28 with BetMGM on Monday, Baskonia drifting to 4.00 with Bet365, the spread up to \u22127 and the total to 182. At 1.31 the price asks for 76.3%; I make Valencia 78%. The Baskonia rebounding crisis comforts me, the Lleida defeat reminds me that favourites also lose at home: that is why the stake stays at 1 unit.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> puts that gap in context; the result will join my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, loss included. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>111-88: Valencia settled it in ten minutes<\/h2>\n<p>26-10 after the first quarter, 52-33 at the break: Valencia ran away early at the Roig Arena in front of 12,156 fans, with 13 threes from 27 against 6 for Baskonia. Armoni Brooks led the scoring (17 points, 4 of 7 from deep), TJ Shorts paired 12 points with 10 assists. Baskonia lost 17 balls to Valencia&#8217;s 11, and Tadas Sedekerskis&#8217;s 16 points changed nothing.<\/p>\n<p>My one-unit bet on Valencia, taken at 1.31 with Betano, has won: +$31. At that price the job was to win, and Valencia won by 23. The close, 1.28, had shortened the favourite further; the game itself was never close after the first quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Valencia crushed Baskonia 111-88 with 13 threes, and my bet on Valencia at 1.31 has won (+$31).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2298,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Valencia v Baskonia prediction: my 1.31 home pick with Betano stands. After the Lleida defeat I keep the winner and leave the handicap, 1 unit.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Valencia Basket","ba_away_name":"Baskonia","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-09-29 18:30:00","ba_venue":"Roig Arena","ba_match_key":"api-sports:basketball:508598","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[25,96],"class_list":["post-1191","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-basketball-en","ba_sport-euroleague-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Valencia Basket v Baskonia: Shorts can test a defence still under repair &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Valencia v Baskonia prediction: my 1.31 home pick with Betano stands. 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