{"id":12714,"date":"2026-10-27T22:34:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T21:34:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rakhimova-vs-alexandrova-at-1-34-the-market-has-already-called-it\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T23:03:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T22:03:23","slug":"rakhimova-alexandrova-prediction-2026-10-28","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/tennis\/wta\/rakhimova-alexandrova-prediction-2026-10-28\/","title":{"rendered":"Rakhimova vs Alexandrova: at 1.34, the market has already called it"},"content":{"rendered":"

The strangest last sixteen in the Tokyo draw will indeed open Wednesday on Center Court, from 10.30 am local time: the order of play published on Tuesday evening<\/a> confirms it. Kamilla Rakhimova, ranked 67th, plays her first match of the week without having contested a single round of the main draw. Beaten on Sunday in the final round of qualifying by Aliaksandra Sasnovich, she was reprieved as a lucky loser<\/a> after the withdrawals of Belinda Bencic<\/a> (right ankle) and Maja Chwalinska (left thigh), the fourth and second seeds. Bencic’s bye fell to her, so this last sixteen is her opening match.<\/p>\n

A rested lucky loser against a favourite already in rhythm<\/h2>\n

The entry cuts both ways. Rakhimova has not played since Sunday: two full days of rest, fresh legs. She still walks into a WTA 500<\/a> last sixteen with no match rhythm, on courts where she only played qualifying. Across the net, Ekaterina Alexandrova, ranked 33rd, saw off Ann Li 6-4 6-4 in Tuesday’s first round: less freshness, but a win in her legs and a serve already in working order.<\/p>\n

Their last two weeks tell the same story:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nPlayer<\/th>\nRound<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
27\/10<\/td>\nE. Alexandrova<\/td>\n1st round, Tokyo<\/td>\n6-4 6-4 vs A. Li<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25\/10<\/td>\nK. Rakhimova<\/td>\nQualifying, Tokyo<\/td>\n4-6 4-6 vs A. Sasnovich<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24\/10<\/td>\nK. Rakhimova<\/td>\nQualifying, Tokyo<\/td>\n7-5 6-1 vs S. Tsujioka<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23\/10<\/td>\nE. Alexandrova<\/td>\nQuarter-final, Ningbo<\/td>\n6-4 2-6 1-6 vs L. Fernandez<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19\/10<\/td>\nK. Rakhimova<\/td>\n1st round, Ningbo<\/td>\n4-6 4-6 vs M. Bouzkova<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Alexandrova’s serve against Rakhimova’s return<\/h2>\n

Alexandrova wins her matches on serve: 69.5% of service games won this season, and a controlled first round against Ann Li. The rest is thinner: 29.8% of return games won, five tie-breaks won against nine lost over twelve months. If the match tightens, that record weighs.<\/p>\n

Rakhimova is the opposite profile: 43.9% of return games won across her last ten matches, against 62.2% on serve. That appetite in the return game is the real threat to the favourite, with one caveat: those ten matches include qualifying against much lower-ranked players, which flatters the average.<\/p>\n