{"id":12866,"date":"2026-10-27T23:39:31","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T22:39:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/fritz-vs-hijikata-the-turin-chase-starts-with-a-lucky-loser\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T23:39:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T22:39:40","slug":"fritz-hijikata-prediction-2026-10-28","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/tennis\/atp\/fritz-hijikata-prediction-2026-10-28\/","title":{"rendered":"Fritz vs Hijikata: the Turin chase starts with a lucky loser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Sunday in Lyon Taylor Fritz <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/news\/fritz-musetti-lyon-2026-final-sunday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lost the final<\/a> 6-3, 6-4 to Lorenzo Musetti. On Wednesday in Basel he is back on court, first round, against Rinky Hijikata, a lucky loser from qualifying. It is also his 29th birthday.<\/p>\n<h2>An opponent who came in at the last minute<\/h2>\n<p>Hijikata lost his final qualifying match to Yannick Hanfmann on Sunday, and he only entered the draw when Stefanos Tsitsipas, Fritz&#8217;s scheduled opponent, withdrew with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetennisgazette.com\/opinion\/taylor-fritzs-chances-of-success-at-the-basel-open-increase-before-hes-even-played-a-match\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">right shoulder injury<\/a>. Basel lost Tsitsipas, Bublik and Davidovich Fokina within a few hours, and the sixth seed&#8217;s path opened accordingly. Fritz leads their only meeting, 6-3, 6-3 in Delray Beach in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>The lucky loser arrives out of form: a first-round exit in Almaty on 20 October, another in Shanghai on the 7th. His season stays decent, 34 wins in 63 matches, but the bottom of the Basel draw is exactly where his level sits right now.<\/p>\n<h2>The Lyon week still weighs<\/h2>\n<p>Four matches in seven days for Fritz in Lyon, including <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/news\/fritz-herbert-cobolli-wawrinka-lyon-2026-thursday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a spectacular fall against Herbert<\/a> that he called the hardest of his career, with no visible consequence afterwards. The knee? He has carried tendinitis since the spring, the one that bothered him at Wimbledon, and nothing new has come out of Basel. The motivation is written down instead: 12th in the race to Turin, Fritz is playing for his ATP Finals ticket, on a fast indoor court built for his serve: 82.2% of service games held over his last ten matches, and <a href=\"https:\/\/rg.org\/news\/tennis\/swiss-indoors-basel-2026-shelton-djokovic-fritz-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the best ace rate of the field<\/a> this season.<\/p>\n<p>Their recent matches:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Player<\/th>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Tournament<\/th>\n<th>Opponent<\/th>\n<th>Result<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>T. Fritz<\/td>\n<td>25\/10<\/td>\n<td>Lyon, final<\/td>\n<td>L. Musetti<\/td>\n<td>L<\/td>\n<td>3-6 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T. Fritz<\/td>\n<td>24\/10<\/td>\n<td>Lyon, semi-final<\/td>\n<td>T. Paul<\/td>\n<td>W<\/td>\n<td>6-3 7-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T. Fritz<\/td>\n<td>23\/10<\/td>\n<td>Lyon, QF<\/td>\n<td>D. Altmaier<\/td>\n<td>W<\/td>\n<td>7-6 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T. Fritz<\/td>\n<td>22\/10<\/td>\n<td>Lyon, last 16<\/td>\n<td>P. Herbert<\/td>\n<td>W<\/td>\n<td>6-2 7-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T. Fritz<\/td>\n<td>12\/10<\/td>\n<td>Shanghai, second round<\/td>\n<td>S. Tsitsipas<\/td>\n<td>L<\/td>\n<td>6-3 5-7 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R. Hijikata<\/td>\n<td>25\/10<\/td>\n<td>Basel, qualifying final<\/td>\n<td>Y. Hanfmann<\/td>\n<td>L<\/td>\n<td>4-6 6-1 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R. Hijikata<\/td>\n<td>24\/10<\/td>\n<td>Basel, qualifying<\/td>\n<td>M. Kecmanovic<\/td>\n<td>W<\/td>\n<td>7-6 6-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R. Hijikata<\/td>\n<td>20\/10<\/td>\n<td>Almaty, first round<\/td>\n<td>T. Atmane<\/td>\n<td>L<\/td>\n<td>6-7 2-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R. Hijikata<\/td>\n<td>07\/10<\/td>\n<td>Shanghai, first round<\/td>\n<td>R. Safiullin<\/td>\n<td>L<\/td>\n<td>5-7 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Why I am not betting<\/h2>\n<p>On Tuesday evening Fritz trades at 1.12 with BetMGM, Hijikata 7.00 with Bet365. The winner is priced out of reach, which leaves the margin lines: the 21.5-game total barely leans, and the 4.5-game handicap offers 1.85 on the Australian. That was the only plausible angle, giving him four and a half games in a match where Fritz manages his return two days after a Sunday final. I made it 58%; with my confidence trimmed, my number falls back onto the 54% the price already shows. No gap, no bet.<\/p>\n<p>No bet on the Basel opener. The <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">staking method<\/a> does not force itself, and my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a> gains nothing from an invented bet; the market has weighed this match well. If you bet anyway: 18+, only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two days after his Lyon final, Fritz opens his Basel campaign against a lucky loser, on his 29th birthday. At 1.12, and even Hijikata +4.5 games at 1.85 offers no gap: no bet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12867,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Fritz vs Hijikata prediction (Basel): after his Lyon final, Fritz chases Turin against a lucky loser. At 1.12 there is no gap to take, so no bet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"T. Fritz","ba_away_name":"R. Hijikata","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-28 17:00:00","ba_venue":"Basel","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12174305","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[126,30],"class_list":["post-12866","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp-en","ba_sport-tennis-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fritz vs Hijikata: the Turin chase starts with a lucky loser &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fritz vs Hijikata prediction (Basel): after his Lyon final, Fritz chases Turin against a lucky loser. 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