{"id":12917,"date":"2026-10-27T23:53:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T22:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/le-havre-vs-psg-five-straight-wins-four-absentees-villarreal-on-tuesday\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T23:53:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T22:53:51","slug":"le-havre-paris-saint-germain-prediction-2026-10-30","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/le-havre-paris-saint-germain-prediction-2026-10-30\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Havre vs PSG: five straight wins, four absentees, Villarreal on Tuesday"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At the Stade Oc\u00e9ane on Friday, Ligue 1 opens its ninth round with the most lopsided fixture on the card: the Parisian leaders, 17 points and five straight wins in all competitions, away to the bottom club from Le Havre, 2 points and no league win yet. The market is not hiding anything: 1.26 with 1xbet as of this Tuesday, more than three chances in four. The interesting question is the margin.<\/p>\n<h2>Five wins, four absentees, Villarreal on Tuesday<\/h2>\n<p>Paris have just beaten Lyon 2-0 (Mayulu, Godts), after a 4-2 over Barcelona and a 4-2 win at Manchester City in the Champions League: 14 goals scored, 6 conceded over the run. But the treatment room has <a href=\"https:\/\/news.footeo.com\/2026\/10\/20\/psg-les-premieres-nouvelles-des-blesses-kvaratskhelia-dembele-et-marquinhos-15368\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">filled up in three weeks<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Nuno Mendes, left thigh, injured at Strasbourg on 17 October;<\/li>\n<li>Marquinhos, a muscle problem, went off against Barcelona;<\/li>\n<li>Ousmane Demb\u00e9l\u00e9, hamstring, gone after 20 minutes of that same game;<\/li>\n<li>Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, knee, out for a long stretch.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>With <a href=\"https:\/\/billetterie.psg.fr\/fr\/calendrier-des-matchs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Villarreal away on Tuesday<\/a> in the Champions League and then Troyes, Paris will play every three or four days, and Luis Enrique will rotate. No XI has been announced three days out: the probable line-ups doing the rounds are guesswork. What is known: even rotated, this squad has won its last five.<\/p>\n<h2>A Le Havre side that scores and leaks<\/h2>\n<p>The HAC are still without a league win: two draws, six defeats. But this team scores: three goals at the V\u00e9lodrome on Sunday (4-3), after a 1-3 at home to Auxerre. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.paris-normandie.fr\/id754990\/article\/2026-10-25\/football-ligue-1-dabord-ridicule-le-hac-finalement-fait-trembler-lom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The local paper ran the headline &#8220;ridiculous at first&#8221;<\/a> after Marseille, the banners from the kop made themselves heard, and Didier Digard is chasing a reaction against a fixture list he has called &#8220;terrible&#8221;. A team that has conceded 14 goals in five and scored 11 produces open matches, even lost ones. The market expects the same: its main goals line sits at 3.5.<\/p>\n<p>Four absentees on the home side: Mpasi-Nzau and Mambimbi, both Achilles tendons, Jelert, thigh, Pemb\u00e9l\u00e9, groin. Nothing is settled there either; things will become clearer on Thursday.<\/p>\n<h2>The head-to-head leaves nothing to the HAC<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Home<\/th>\n<th>Away<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>28 February 2026<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>22 November 2025<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>19 April 2025<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>16 August 2024<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>1-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27 April 2024<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>3-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Across the last eight meetings, Le Havre have won none of them, one draw included. The last one at the Oc\u00e9ane was decided by a single goal, Barcola&#8217;s, back in February.<\/p>\n<h2>The bet: PSG -1.5, and no edge to be found<\/h2>\n<p>There is nothing left to take on the outright win at 1.26. The line that interests me is PSG -1.5 at 1.71 with 1xbet, tightening from the 1.75 of the opening price. On that line, the market makes Paris a two-goal winner barely more often than once in two (57.9 %). I make it 57 %. My reading and the market&#8217;s almost meet, so there is no clear edge, and the stake is minimal.<\/p>\n<p>0.25 units, $25: won, if Paris win by two goals or more, it pays $17.65; lost, on a one-goal win, a draw or a defeat, it costs $25. The scenario that wins it: Paris ahead at the break and the HAC forced to open up late. The one that loses it: a rotated Paris winning by the odd goal, like in February. The stake comes from the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">stake calculator<\/a>; the pick will be tracked on the <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Parisian leaders travel to the bottom club on Friday night, with four key players in the treatment room. I take PSG -1.5 at 1.71, with no real edge on the market: minimal stake.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12920,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Le Havre vs PSG, Ligue 1 round 9: analysis, injuries and prediction. I take PSG -1.5 at 1.71, with no real edge: minimal stake.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Le Havre","ba_away_name":"Paris Saint-Germain","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-30 18:00:00","ba_venue":"Stade Oc\u00e9ane","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1552801","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,51],"class_list":["post-12917","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-ligue-1-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le Havre vs PSG: five straight wins, four absentees, Villarreal on Tuesday &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le Havre vs PSG, Ligue 1 round 9: analysis, injuries and prediction. 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