{"id":13498,"date":"2026-10-28T18:41:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T17:41:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/jodar-chases-turin-vacherot-chases-his-tokyo-level-no-bet-at-1-34\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T20:02:58","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T19:02:58","slug":"vacherot-jodar-prediction-2026-10-29","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/tennis\/atp\/vacherot-jodar-prediction-2026-10-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Jodar chases Turin, Vacherot chases his Tokyo level: no bet at 1.34"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Valentin Vacherot beat Navone 6-3 7-6(4) in Basel on Monday in 1 hour 59; Rafael Jodar, the third seed, put away Tabilo 6-4 6-2 on Tuesday in 1 hour 25. The two have never met. The order of play is out: this last-16 opens the Center Court on Thursday, on a quick indoor court that <a href=\"https:\/\/as.com\/tenis\/mas_tenis\/jodar-da-otro-paso-hacia-las-atp-finals-y-el-top-10-f202610-n\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suits the servers and Jodar&#8217;s game<\/a>. The tournament stayed on schedule on Wednesday: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/scores\/current\/basel\/328\/daily-schedule\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Borges knocked out Ruud<\/a> on that same court, no match postponed.<\/p>\n<h2>Jodar plays for Turin, and it shows<\/h2>\n<p>The Spaniard comes off a Shanghai final, lost 6-1 6-7 4-6 to Davidovich Fokina, with Ruud and Medvedev dismissed along the way. He holds the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nittoatpfinals.com\/en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ninth and last qualifying spot in the Race to Turin<\/a>, De Minaur right behind, 74 matches on his season&#8217;s clock. On current form, he is the man of the draw.<\/p>\n<h2>Vacherot holds his serve<\/h2>\n<p>Beaten in the Lyon second round by Van Assche last week, the Monegasque answered better on Monday. His season was broken up by a stress fracture in his foot and bone edema: a missed grass swing, a missed Wimbledon, a withdrawal before his second round at Roland-Garros. 14th on 5 October after a Tokyo semi-final, he now sits 32nd, with a Shanghai title to defend, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennis.com\/news\/articles\/valentin-vacherot-wins-shanghai-cousins-final-monaco-first-atp-singles-champion\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">won in 2025 out of qualifying<\/a>, the first ATP title for a Monegasque player.<\/p>\n<p>Over his last ten matches Vacherot wins 81.8% of his service games and plays almost a tie-break every three sets; Jodar holds his own at 82.2%. The matchup has a logical shape: Jodar&#8217;s return, 31.5% of opponents&#8217; service games broken, against a Monegasque serve that holds. Vacherot breaks 20.5% himself. Big serve against big return, sets decided on details.<\/p>\n<h2>Why I am not betting<\/h2>\n<p>At 1.34 with Unibet, a price barely off its opening, the market gives Jodar a touch over seven chances in ten. Vacherot has drifted from 3.75 to 3.55 with Betano since the opening: the market has only reinforced the same reading. My view is the same, and at that price there is nothing to take. The games line at 22.5 tempted me for a moment: two serves that hold, a quick indoor court, a Vacherot able to nick a set. But my edge on that line rests on two or three games of estimation, not enough to pay for. I pass.<\/p>\n<p>Passing is part of the job: a forced bet weighs on the <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a> without proving anything, and the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">staking calculator<\/a> takes the wish to bet without an edge back to zero. If Vacherot holds serve for two hours against Jodar&#8217;s return, I will have learned something for the rest of the tournament, without paying for the ticket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rafael Jodar defends the last qualifying spot for Turin; Valentin Vacherot rebuilds a season broken by his foot. The Monegasque&#8217;s serve compares well, but at 1.34 the market has read it all: I pass.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":13501,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Vacherot-Jodar prediction (Basel ATP 500): Jodar&#8217;s return against Vacherot&#8217;s serve, ninth in the Race to Turin. No value at 1.34: no bet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Valentin Vacherot","ba_away_name":"Rafael Jodar","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-29 09:00:00","ba_venue":"Basel","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12174967","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[126,30],"class_list":["post-13498","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp-en","ba_sport-tennis-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jodar chases Turin, Vacherot chases his Tokyo level: no bet at 1.34 &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Vacherot-Jodar prediction (Basel ATP 500): Jodar&#8217;s return against Vacherot&#8217;s serve, ninth in the Race to Turin. 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