{"id":15429,"date":"2026-11-02T18:41:50","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T17:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rublev-vs-etcheverry-the-favourite-who-keeps-losing\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T20:06:07","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T19:06:07","slug":"rublev-etcheverry-prediction-2026-11-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/tennis\/atp\/rublev-etcheverry-prediction-2026-11-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Rublev vs Etcheverry: the favourite who keeps losing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Andrey Rublev sat down in front of the Paris press with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.welovetennis.fr\/atp\/atp-rolex-paris-masters\/rublev-sur-le-tirage-au-sort-dans-mon-cas-tout-peut-arriver-quand-je-suis-en-forme-je-peux-battre-nimporte-qui\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">his own scouting report<\/a>: \u201cwhen I am not in shape, I can lose to anyone.\u201d The Russian, ranked 23rd, arrives on four straight defeats and a favourite&#8217;s price, 1.44 at Betway. Between what he says about himself and what the market says about him, I take the narrow bet: a set taken by Tom\u00e1s Mart\u00edn Etcheverry. The official order of play gives this match the opening slot on Court 2, Tuesday at 11:00.<\/p>\n<h2>Four defeats, and still this expensive<\/h2>\n<p>The run: Tommy Paul in Vienna (5-7 2-6), Mannarino in Almaty (4-6 6-3 3-6), Sakamoto in Shanghai (4-6 4-6), De Minaur in the Beijing quarter-finals (6-1 2-6 3-6). A month without a win, from 4 to 27 October. The serve still holds, 81.9 % of service games won over his last ten matches; it is the results that have gone. In Paris, Rublev defends the 100 points of last year&#8217;s quarter-final, his last Masters of the season, with Turin already out of reach.<\/p>\n<h2>Etcheverry loses too, but he plays<\/h2>\n<p>The Argentine, ranked 31st, carries six straight singles defeats, going back to the US Open for his last win. Two differences with Rublev: on Monday he won a doubles match with Francisco Cer\u00fandolo (6-4 1-6 10-3 against Polmans and Zielinski), a match in the legs the day before the singles; and his numbers hold up, 79.6 % of service games won, a break in five return games. The base of his game has not gone, the results have.<\/p>\n<p>The head-to-head is level: Etcheverry won in Halle in 2025, on grass, Rublev in Montreal in 2024, on hard. Indoors on hard, no precedent.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Player<\/th>\n<th>Tournament<\/th>\n<th>Opponent<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/10<\/td>\n<td>Rublev<\/td>\n<td>Vienna, R32<\/td>\n<td>Paul<\/td>\n<td>5-7 2-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>26\/10<\/td>\n<td>Etcheverry<\/td>\n<td>Vienna, R32<\/td>\n<td>Berrettini<\/td>\n<td>3-6 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>21\/10<\/td>\n<td>Rublev<\/td>\n<td>Almaty, R16<\/td>\n<td>Mannarino<\/td>\n<td>4-6 6-3 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>21\/10<\/td>\n<td>Etcheverry<\/td>\n<td>Almaty, R32<\/td>\n<td>Bellucci<\/td>\n<td>6-7 6-2 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10\/10<\/td>\n<td>Etcheverry<\/td>\n<td>Shanghai, R64<\/td>\n<td>Svrcina<\/td>\n<td>3-6 6-3 5-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>09\/10<\/td>\n<td>Rublev<\/td>\n<td>Shanghai, R64<\/td>\n<td>Sakamoto<\/td>\n<td>4-6 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/10<\/td>\n<td>Rublev<\/td>\n<td>Beijing, QF<\/td>\n<td>De Minaur<\/td>\n<td>6-1 2-6 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>03\/10<\/td>\n<td>Rublev<\/td>\n<td>Beijing, R16<\/td>\n<td>Safiullin<\/td>\n<td>6-2 3-6 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Etcheverry<\/td>\n<td>Tokyo, R32<\/td>\n<td>Tsitsipas<\/td>\n<td>6-4 3-6 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>25\/09<\/td>\n<td>Etcheverry<\/td>\n<td>Hangzhou, R16<\/td>\n<td>Jacquet<\/td>\n<td>2-6 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Ten matches between the two men in that table, one win: Rublev over Safiullin, on 3 October. The rest are defeats, and the market still prices Rublev at 1.44.<\/p>\n<h2>What the price says, and where I push back<\/h2>\n<p>At 1.44, the market makes Rublev a strong favourite, roughly two chances in three. I see him less comfortable than that: his run is that of a player who rarely wins easily. Over his last ten matches, he has won in straight sets only twice. Taking a set off this Rublev is a bet on the form of the day, not on an upset.<\/p>\n<p>My bet: Etcheverry +1.5 sets, at 1.73 at Unibet. It wins as soon as the Argentine takes a set, including in a 2-1 defeat: +$18.25 on a $25 stake. It loses if Rublev wins 2-0, -$25. A retirement or a walkover refunds the stake. I put the chance of Etcheverry taking at least one set at 62 %, where the price implies 54 %. At J-1 the line still holds at 1.73 at Unibet, and nothing on the physical side moves my numbers.<\/p>\n<p>Why not the Etcheverry win: at 3.20 at Bet365 it pays a scenario his run does not support. Why not bigger: the gap stays thin after caution, and the stake drops to 0.25 units, $25, the smallest the site allows. That is what the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> says: small edge, small stake. The bet will sit in the <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a> whatever happens. The winner plays <a href=\"https:\/\/www.perfect-tennis.com\/paris-masters-draw-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">De Minaur in the second round<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four straight defeats for Rublev, six for Etcheverry: the market still believes in the Russian at 1.44. I am staking 0.25 units on Etcheverry taking a set.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15430,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Rublev has lost for a month, Etcheverry since the US Open. My Paris Masters prediction: 0.25 units on a set for Etcheverry at 1.73.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"A. Rublev","ba_away_name":"T. M. Etcheverry","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-03 09:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12176035","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[126,30],"class_list":["post-15429","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp-en","ba_sport-tennis-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rublev vs Etcheverry: the favourite who keeps losing &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rublev has lost for a month, Etcheverry since the US Open. 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Etcheverry \u00b7 ATP \u00b7 Tuesday 3 November \u00b7 9.00am"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/tennis\/atp\/rublev-etcheverry-prediction-2026-11-03\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Matchs","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Rublev vs Etcheverry: the favourite who keeps losing"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","name":"Bankroll Atlas","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization","name":"Bankroll Atlas","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Bankroll Atlas"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/eeba001190b5038c62eb5eb2619bffa4","name":"Camille Vasseur","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2a6a4c9871cb4ce48a1abd2cef3960c89ba52978ef7c420e82f723998107a448?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2a6a4c9871cb4ce48a1abd2cef3960c89ba52978ef7c420e82f723998107a448?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2a6a4c9871cb4ce48a1abd2cef3960c89ba52978ef7c420e82f723998107a448?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Camille Vasseur"},"description":"Camille played amateur tournaments before helping to run a tennis club. 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