{"id":15480,"date":"2026-11-02T19:10:34","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T18:10:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/struff-vs-gea-the-favourite-has-not-finished-a-match-in-three-weeks\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T20:23:46","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T19:23:46","slug":"struff-gea-prediction-2026-11-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/tennis\/atp\/struff-gea-prediction-2026-11-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Struff vs Gea: the favourite has not finished a match in three weeks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Gea walked off the Shanghai court on 15 October, retired at 1-4 in the first set<\/a> against Davidovich Fokina. The pain had appeared at the morning warm-up; he located it in the psoas and called the stop necessary for the end of the season, unsure he would even make it onto the court<\/a>. On Tuesday he returns at the Rolex Paris Masters on a wild-card, and the market makes him favourite over Jan-Lennard Struff. That ranking is what I question.<\/p>\n

A full season, a stopped body<\/h2>\n

The Frenchman’s season justifies the odds: 48 wins against 18 losses, a title in Beijing at the end of September, 31-6 on hard courts. Ranked 44th on 2 November<\/a>, a career high, and playing at home. On paper the market is right.<\/p>\n

The calendar says something else: since that Shanghai quarter-final, Gea has not finished a single match, three weeks without a completed match. Somewhere in his legs the September rhythm exists; nobody knows where, and the pain started in the psoas, the muscle that flexes the hip and powers the serve’s leg drive as well as the first step on return.<\/p>\n

Struff: nine matches in twelve days<\/h2>\n

Struff arrives from the other end of the calendar: a final in Brussels on 25 October, then four matches in Basel through to the semi-final, 105 games played in seven days, Djokovic beaten 6-7 7-5 7-6 along the way, before losing 6-3 5-7 4-6 to Lehecka<\/a> on Saturday. Two days of rest, a short trip from Switzerland: the body is loaded, the hand is warm.<\/p>\n

In Paris as a special exempt, ranked 47th, he brings exactly what Gea lost: matches. His serve holds at 87.2% over ten matches; he plays tie-breaks and wins tight games, and has for a fortnight. Against him, Gea’s return, 31.3% of return games won this season, is on paper the better of the two: provided the hand survived the layoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Statistic (last ten matches)<\/th>\nStruff<\/th>\nGea<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Service games held<\/td>\n87.2%<\/td>\n78.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Return games won<\/td>\n20.1%<\/td>\n31.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tie-breaks played per set<\/td>\n0.28<\/td>\n0.34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average games per match<\/td>\n26.5<\/td>\n24.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Gea’s numbers predate the stop: they describe a player nobody has seen since.<\/p>\n

What to watch<\/h2>\n