{"id":2663,"date":"2026-09-30T12:09:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T10:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/germany-serbia-prediction-2026-10-01\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T23:15:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:15:17","slug":"germany-serbia-prediction-2026-10-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/germany-serbia-prediction-2026-10-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany vs Serbia: two goals of margin for a team that has never played together"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>J\u00fcrgen Klopp took Jonas Urbig to the press conference on Wednesday. For <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kicker.de\/klares-indiz-fuer-startelf-einsatz-urbig-neben-klopp-auf-dem-podium-1257011\/artikel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">kicker<\/a>, the signal reads plainly: the young Bayern goalkeeper makes his senior debut against Serbia on Thursday. Around him, the 25-man squad carries nine players without a single cap, and a team that has to be introduced almost player by player.<\/p>\n<h2>A squad turned over, a run to stop<\/h2>\n<p>Germany called up 44 players across their two September gatherings; 25 stayed on for Munich, including six kept from the first group (Dahmen, Schlotterbeck, Treu, Engelhardt, Cont\u00e9, Gnabry) and two recalled as reinforcements, Wirtz and Burkardt. The expected debutants run from El Mala to Keidel. Plenty of new faces for a game Germany play on one point, third in the group.<\/p>\n<p>Wednesday morning brought another blow: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bild.de\/sport\/fussball\/schock-um-schlotterbeck-dfb-star-muss-training-abbrechen-6abce79053ba19e8dfe5743d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Schlotterbeck limped out of training<\/a>, turning his right ankle in a ball-carrying drill, no contact involved, and went straight for an MRI scan. The scan verdict never came out; the team sheet did: Schlotterbeck does not start, Anton and Thiaw form the axis together, and Urbig makes his debut as expected, with Wirtz, Woltemade and Gnabry all starting. He had only just returned from a left-ankle injury picked up at the World Cup.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Jamal Musiala (Germany): left the group before the Netherlands game, not recovered (<a href=\"https:\/\/nationalmannschaft.net\/nations-league-deutschland-serbien-muenchen-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">nationalmannschaft.net<\/a>).<\/li>\n<li>Kai Havertz (Germany): hamstring injury against the Netherlands.<\/li>\n<li>Brajan Gruda (Germany): oblique strain.<\/li>\n<li>Du\u0161an Vlahovi\u0107 (Serbia): out for all four fixtures of the window, announced on 22 September (<a href=\"https:\/\/mondo.rs\/Sport\/Fudbal\/a2285242\/dusan-vlahovic-ne-igra-za-srbiju.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mondo<\/a>).<\/li>\n<li>Nikola Milenkovi\u0107 (Serbia): injured.<\/li>\n<li>Strahinja Pavlovi\u0107 (Serbia): muscular scare against the Netherlands, return hoped for on 4 October.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Kimmich and ter Stegen are not part of this second group. Klopp is the first Germany coach since Helmut Sch\u00f6n not to win either of his first two matches; after the draw in the Netherlands and the defeat by Greece, a third game without a win would be a negative record nobody has seen (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abendzeitung-muenchen.de\/sport\/fussball\/serbien-spiel-in-muenchen-klopp-droht-ein-negativrekord-art-1162250\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Abendzeitung M\u00fcnchen<\/a>).<\/p>\n<h2>Serbia without centre-backs, without their fans<\/h2>\n<p>Serbia arrive pointless, with five defeats in their last six games and at least two goals conceded in five of them. Paunovi\u0107 has three centre-halves left, Babi\u0107, Erakovi\u0107 and Simi\u0107, and Gudelj has joined the group; Mimovi\u0107 comes up from the U21s, goalkeeper Rosi\u0107 has been called up, and Bukinac, Milo\u0161evi\u0107 and Nikoli\u0107 have been released. The official eleven pairs Erakovi\u0107 with Gudelj at the back, keeps Babi\u0107 in and leaves Simi\u0107 out; Tadi\u0107 and Jovi\u0107 start. Tadi\u0107, 37, has come out of international retirement, Jovi\u0107 is scoring for AEK, and Paunovi\u0107 promises a fresh start while the Serbian press writes about a crisis.<\/p>\n<p>No organised Serbia fans will travel either: UEFA has banned ticket sales for two away trips after the incidents around an Albanian flag in late 2024, 90,000 euros of fines included.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>Opponent<\/th>\n<th>Competition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Germany<\/td>\n<td>Greece (home)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Germany<\/td>\n<td>Netherlands (away)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Serbia<\/td>\n<td>Netherlands (home)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Serbia<\/td>\n<td>Greece (home)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The head-to-head fits in one line: 1-1 in a friendly in March 2019, and a Serbian 1-0 at the 2010 World Cup.<\/p>\n<h2>The winner is priced, the margin is not<\/h2>\n<p>Germany have come in from 1.32 to 1.25 over the week, Serbia have drifted from 10.50 to 13.0 with 1xbet at Wednesday&#8217;s reading. The margin has barely moved: the main line, Germany -1.75, still sits at 1.825, and Serbia +1.75 holds at 2.025 with Bet365.<\/p>\n<h2>Serbia +1.75: the bet wins even with a one-goal defeat<\/h2>\n<p>The line splits the stake, half on +1.5, half on +2. Serbia win, draw or lose by one: the bet lands, $25.63 profit on a $25 stake. Lose by two: half the stake comes back. Three or more: all lost. I make that cover 52%, the market prices it at 47.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Two goals of margin for a German group that has never played together and has not won in four games, even against a patched-up Serbian defence, look rich to me. The stake stays at the minimum, 0.25 units ($25): the edge, once my probability is blended with the market&#8217;s, is very thin, and only one firm quotes the line. The <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> breaks stakes down into units, and this pick goes on my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>Klopp gets his first win: 2-0<\/h2>\n<p>Germany win 2-0 and the coach escapes the record: three games, a draw, a defeat, a win. They move to four points, behind Greece (7) and the Netherlands (5) in Group B. Serbia stay on zero points from three matches and conceded twice again.<\/p>\n<p>My bet, Serbia +1.75 at 2.025 with Bet365, loses half: Germany won by exactly two goals, so the half of the stake on +1.5 is lost and the half on +2 is refunded. $25 staked, $12.50 down. I made the cover 52% against the market&#8217;s 47.4%: the two-goal margin, precisely the gap I called rich, settled it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Germany win 2-0, Klopp&#8217;s first victory: my Serbia +1.75 at 2.025 with Bet365 loses half, beaten by exactly the two-goal margin, $12.50 down on $25.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3649,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Germany vs Serbia, Nations League: my prediction Serbia +1.75 at 2.025. A rebuilt Germany side against a Serbia missing their centre-backs.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Germany","ba_away_name":"Serbia","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-01 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Allianz Arena","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528917","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,46],"class_list":["post-2663","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-nations-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Germany vs Serbia: two goals of margin for a team that has never played together &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Germany vs Serbia, Nations League: my prediction Serbia +1.75 at 2.025. 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