{"id":2768,"date":"2026-09-30T14:45:47","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T12:45:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/belgium-turkey-prediction-2026-10-02\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T23:11:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T21:11:28","slug":"belgium-turkey-prediction-2026-10-02","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/belgium-turkey-prediction-2026-10-02\/","title":{"rendered":"Belgium &#8211; Turkey: Montella under &#8220;istifa&#8221; chants, Belgium at 1.50"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Monday night in Bursa, as soon as Italy scored their third, the stand started chanting &#8220;istifa&#8221;, resignation, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gzt.com\/spor\/italya-ilk-yaridan-farki-arttirdi-tribunlerden-montella-ve-tffye-iftifa-sesleri-yukseldi-4265091\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">aimed at head coach Montella<\/a> and federation president Hac\u0131osmano\u011flu, who left his seat before the end of the 1-4. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.milligazete.com.tr\/montella-yarinki-belcika-macindan-sonra-ne-yapacak-italyan-teknik-direktor-istifa-sorularina-ne-dedi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Asked about resigning<\/a>, Montella brushed the question aside: he believes in the work done. On Friday, the same T\u00fcrkiye turn up at the Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Li\u00e8ge with zero points.<\/p>\n<p>Belgium come out of a nearly clean window: a 2-0 win in Italy, a 0-1 home defeat against France. The market prices them at 1.55; I read the game the same way, and that is the whole problem with this bet.<\/p>\n<h2>A group already split in two<\/h2>\n<p>After two rounds, the group has broken in two: France pull away, T\u00fcrkiye fall behind.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>Points<\/th>\n<th>Goal difference<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>France<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>+2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Belgium<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>+1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Italy<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>+1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u00fcrkiye<\/td>\n<td>0<\/td>\n<td>&#8722;4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye have lost both games at home, 0-1 against France and 1-4 against Italy, and sit behind an Italian side they had just watched win on their own pitch.<\/p>\n<h2>A Turkish midfield in pieces<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Hakan \u00c7alhano\u011flu: a strain in the right inner thigh, off the squad list, announced by Inter.<\/li>\n<li>Kenan Y\u0131ld\u0131z: injured, off the list.<\/li>\n<li>Orkun K\u00f6k\u00e7\u00fc: withdrawn from the list by the Turkish federation and treated at his club, a sore toe.<\/li>\n<li>Emirhan Top\u00e7u: pain, absent from the 29 September session; Mert M\u00fcld\u00fcr (knee) and R\u0131dvan Y\u0131lmaz (groin) are also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sabah.com.tr\/spor\/futbol\/2026\/09\/29\/a-milli-futbol-takiminda-belcika-mesaisi-2-eksikle-basladi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported injured<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A relay midfielder is the player who wins the ball back and restarts play through the middle. Without \u00c7alhano\u011flu or K\u00f6k\u00e7\u00fc, Turkish build-up will go long, and the second balls will drop to a settled Belgian defence. I think that hole in midfield will weigh heavier on Friday than the 1-4 in Bursa. On Thursday the federation <a href=\"https:\/\/halktv.com.tr\/spor\/son-dakika-montella-kararini-verdi-tff-2-ismi-resmen-acikladi-1058706h\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">padded the squad with two U21 players<\/a>, Emirhan \u0130lkhan and Yusuf Ak\u00e7i\u00e7ek: two days before kick-off, the sign of a thin squad. On Friday that rebuilt midfield has a face: Y\u00fcksek and Elmaz start in the middle, G\u00fcler behind Y\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n<h2>What van Bommel has already built<\/h2>\n<p>Appointed on 15 August and tied to Euro 2028, Mark van Bommel <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bruxellestoday.be\/sport\/football\/selection-diables-rouges-italie-france-turquie.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">called up 28 players on 18 September<\/a>: without Courtois (withdrawn), Witsel or Sels (international retirements), Meunier, Saelemaekers or Doku (injured). Amadou Onana, cruciate ligament, stays out of the group, and Trossard, nursing a heel, does not start.<\/p>\n<p>Thursday&#8217;s debate sits in midfield: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesoir.be\/774172\/article\/2026-10-01\/quel-milieu-pour-les-diables-rouges-steven-defour-tranche-lavia-est-un-cran-au\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Steven Defour picks Rom\u00e9o Lavia<\/a> over Raskin. Van Bommel did not follow him: in the official line-up, Vanaken starts alongside Tielemans through the middle, Lukebakio replaces Moreira on a wing, and De Bruyne starts at ten behind De Ketelaere, with Godts in the front three.<\/p>\n<h2>Sclessin sold out<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesoir.be\/774098\/article\/2026-09-30\/sclessin-est-sold-out-pour-les-diables-rouges-le-match-face-la-turquie-se-jouera\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sclessin is full<\/a>, and the Belgian federation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesoir.be\/774113\/article\/2026-09-30\/les-diables-rouges-ont-influence-le-choix-dun-retour-au-standard-pour-affronter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">chose this return to Li\u00e8ge<\/a>: the Red Devils have delivered two exhibitions there, 9-0 against Gibraltar in 2017, 7-0 against Liechtenstein in 2025. Belgium must win to keep second place, and the ground leans their way.<\/p>\n<h2>Belgium at 1.55: the balance of power is already priced in<\/h2>\n<p>Belgium were priced at 1.50 when the bet was taken; they have drifted out to 1.55 at Betano on Thursday, while T\u00fcrkiye shortened from 6.20 to 5.60. At 1.55, the market gives Belgium slightly less than two chances in three; I still make it 67 %.<\/p>\n<p>My probability and the market&#8217;s matched at the take: the stake fell to the minimum, 0.25 units, or $25. Belgium win, the bet pays $12.50; a draw or a Turkish win, it loses $25. The method follows quarter <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly<\/a>, and this bet with no net value still joins my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, because that is where we measure whether my reading beats the market&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<p>The winning scenario: Belgium settle into their block and De Bruyne finds the gaps between rebuilt Turkish lines. The losing scenario: T\u00fcrkiye, sat in a low block, hold the draw that would relaunch them in this group.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>De Bruyne opened, Belgium never let go<\/h2>\n<p>Belgium won 3-0 at Sclessin. De Bruyne opened the scoring early in the first half, and the Belgian block closed the game the way I wrote it: Turkey never reopened it. The rebuilt midfield I saw in trouble spent the evening chasing the ball.<\/p>\n<p>The bet lands: Belgium to win, taken at 1.50 with Betano, minimum stake of 0.25 units, +$12.50. No edge at the price, so the gain matches the stake; the reading of the game was right.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Belgium beat Turkey 3-0 in Sclessin, De Bruyne opened the scoring: my win bet, taken at 1.50, pays $12.50.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4062,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Belgium vs Turkey prediction: the Red Devils won 3-0 in Sclessin, De Bruyne opened. My win bet at 1.50 lands, +$12.50.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Belgium","ba_away_name":"Turkey","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-02 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stade Maurice Dufrasne","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528925","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,46],"class_list":["post-2768","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-nations-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Belgium &#8211; Turkey: Montella under &#8220;istifa&#8221; chants, Belgium at 1.50 &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Belgium vs Turkey prediction: the Red Devils won 3-0 in Sclessin, De Bruyne opened. 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My win bet at 1.50 lands, +$12.50.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/belgium-turkey-prediction-2026-10-02\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Belgium &#8211; Turkey: Montella under &#8220;istifa&#8221; chants, Belgium at 1.50 &#183; Bankroll Atlas","og_description":"Belgium vs Turkey prediction: the Red Devils won 3-0 in Sclessin, De Bruyne opened. 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