{"id":2783,"date":"2026-09-30T15:03:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T13:03:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/france-vs-italy-prediction-2026-10-02\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T23:11:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T21:11:36","slug":"france-vs-italy-prediction-2026-10-02","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/france-vs-italy-prediction-2026-10-02\/","title":{"rendered":"France vs Italy: Zidane&#8217;s first night at the Stade de France, an Italy starting over"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Stade de France will be full on Friday night, around 80,000 spectators with every ticket gone, for Zidane&#8217;s first home game as France head coach in Saint-Denis. &#8220;It is important to win for the coach&#8217;s first match at the Stade de France&#8221;, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ouest-france.fr\/sport\/football\/equipe-de-france\/france-italie-manu-kone-cest-important-de-gagner-pour-la-premiere-du-coach-au-stade-de-france-548f265e-bca6-11f1-8ea4-97dc4d7cca62\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Manu Kon\u00e9 said on Wednesday at Clairefontaine<\/a>. France arrive top of the group with six points, Italy third with three.<\/p>\n<h2>Two 1-0 wins and a clean sheet<\/h2>\n<p>France opened their Nations League campaign with two away games, two 1-0 wins, in T\u00fcrkiye and then Belgium, and no goal conceded. The machine is simple: score once, then shut the game down. The summer told a different story, a World Cup ended by a 0-2 against Spain and then a 4-6 against England; since September, Zidane has taken this team from the other end.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>Opponent<\/th>\n<th>Competition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>28\/09<\/td>\n<td>France<\/td>\n<td>Belgium (a)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>25\/09<\/td>\n<td>France<\/td>\n<td>T\u00fcrkiye (a)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>18\/07<\/td>\n<td>France<\/td>\n<td>England (h)<\/td>\n<td>World Cup<\/td>\n<td>4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14\/07<\/td>\n<td>France<\/td>\n<td>Spain (h)<\/td>\n<td>World Cup<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>09\/07<\/td>\n<td>France<\/td>\n<td>Morocco (h)<\/td>\n<td>World Cup<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>28\/09<\/td>\n<td>Italy<\/td>\n<td>T\u00fcrkiye (a)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>4-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>25\/09<\/td>\n<td>Italy<\/td>\n<td>Belgium (h)<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>31\/03<\/td>\n<td>Italy<\/td>\n<td>Bosnia and Herzegovina (a)<\/td>\n<td>WC qualifiers<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Without Mbapp\u00e9, where do two goals come from?<\/h2>\n<p>Kylian Mbapp\u00e9, hurt in his left knee in T\u00fcrkiye on 25 September, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.franceinfo.fr\/sports\/foot\/kylian-mbappe\/kylian-mbappe-blesse-au-genou-gauche-et-forfait-pour-les-trois-prochains-matchs-de-l-equipe-de-france-en-ligue-des-nations_8210321.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gave up on the three matches of this window<\/a> and flew back to Madrid, with no replacement called up. Friday&#8217;s question is simple: without Mbapp\u00e9, where does France find its goals?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>On the French side, Saliba, Tchouam\u00e9ni (coach&#8217;s choice), Za\u00efre-Emery and Mateta are also missing; Konat\u00e9 twisted his right knee in training, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.topmercato.com\/2144225-pronostic-france-vs-italie-02-10-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Leny Yoro, called up for the first time<\/a>, takes his place.<\/li>\n<li>On the Italian side, Raspadori <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gazzetta.it\/en\/football\/national-team\/29-09-2026\/italy-injured-raspadori-leaves-coverciano-camp-no-replacement-called-up.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">left Coverciano on Wednesday<\/a>, a thigh injury picked up in Bursa, with no replacement called up; Meret, Spinazzola, Cambiaso, Cristante, Locatelli and Zaniolo are out, and Samuele Ricci was called up to cover Cristante.<\/li>\n<li>The official line-ups have settled it: Maignan keeps his goal, Olise and Demb\u00e9l\u00e9 are there as projected, Truffert comes in alongside Kalulu, Jacquet and Upamecano, and Dou\u00e9 completes the front three. The midfield is the surprise: Rabiot flanked by Cherki and da Cunha, with Kon\u00e9 not starting. Across, Mancini lines up Tonali between Frattesi and Fagioli, and sends Kean and the two Espositos up front.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>A fresh Italy under pressure<\/h2>\n<p>Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium in Rome on 25 September, then won 4-1 in Bursa. For this trip, Mancini had left ten players at Coverciano, Barella and Gianluca Mancini among them, to bring them fresh to Paris; the rest of the squad recovered in the pool on the night of the 28th. On Thursday the coach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.calciocasteddu.it\/2026\/10\/01\/italia-mancini-sceglie-i-23-per-la-francia-romano-resta-fuori\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">settled his list of 23<\/a>: nine players stay at Coverciano, including Alessandro Romano (Cagliari), cut from the delegation.<\/p>\n<p>Under the whistles heard in Rome, Mancini waved away the comparison with the past: &#8220;Non abbiamo pi\u00f9 i Totti, Del Piero e Baggio, ma ci serve tempo&#8221;. A team asking for time, a coach already under fire after two rounds: I see Italy coming to hold the line. Their last trip to France still ended well, a 3-1 in September 2024, and France answered with the same score in Italy in November.<\/p>\n<h2>At 1.666, France under 2.5 goals<\/h2>\n<p>France are heavy favourites: 1.46 at Bwin ES on Thursday, down from 1.50 at the open. Taking a French win at that price means buying a conviction the whole market already shares.<\/p>\n<p>I prefer a bet that wins with France without demanding a festival from them: France&#8217;s team total goals, under 2.5, taken at 1.666 at Bet365. Back-to-back 1-0 wins, Mbapp\u00e9 in Madrid, an Italy that will come to hold: I give France a 65 % chance of scoring two goals at most, where the odds promised 60. The official line-ups do not overturn that reading: this brand-new midfield, I see it closing the game down rather than opening it up. The bet lands if Les Bleus score 0, 1 or 2 goals, whatever the scoreline; it falls from three French goals.<\/p>\n<p>Since the take, the market has warmed to goals: both teams to score has gone from 1.89 at the open to 1.65, and France under 2.5 goals trades at 1.65 at Unibet on Thursday. A signal against me, and I own it: my reading rests on two 1-0 wins and a rebuilt Italy. Stake: 0.75 units ($75), potential profit $49.95. To follow the same <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">staking method<\/a>, everything runs through the calculator, and every result joins the <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>One French goal, one Italian answer<\/h2>\n<p>Olise opened in the 55th minute, Bastoni replied about ten minutes later, and France dominated without ever forcing a second: 1-1, Zidane&#8217;s first game at the Stade de France without a win. Les Bleus still top the group on seven points.<\/p>\n<p>My bet wins: France under 2.5 team goals, taken at 1.666 with Bet365, lands on that single goal, 0.75 units, +$49.95. Two 1-0s away, a 1-1 at home: without Mbapp\u00e9, this team still scores around one goal, and that is exactly the ceiling I was looking for.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>France vs Italy: 1-1, Olise then Bastoni. My bet, France under 2.5 goals, wins: +$49.95 on 0.75 units.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4067,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"France vs Italy prediction: 1-1, Olise then Bastoni, no home win for Zidane at the Stade de France. My bet, France under 2.5 goals, wins.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"France","ba_away_name":"Italy","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-02 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stade de France","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528924","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,46],"class_list":["post-2783","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-nations-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>France vs Italy: Zidane&#8217;s first night at the Stade de France, an Italy starting over &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"France vs Italy prediction: 1-1, Olise then Bastoni, no home win for Zidane at the Stade de France. 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For eight years he has built his predictions around line-ups, team form and the fixture schedule. He follows Ligue 1 and the European competitions most closely.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/authors\\\/lucas-morel\\\/\",\"knowsAbout\":[\"Football\",\"Ligue 1 and European competitions\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"France vs Italy: Zidane&#8217;s first night at the Stade de France, an Italy starting over &#183; Bankroll Atlas","description":"France vs Italy prediction: 1-1, Olise then Bastoni, no home win for Zidane at the Stade de France. My bet, France under 2.5 goals, wins.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/france-vs-italy-prediction-2026-10-02\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"France vs Italy: Zidane&#8217;s first night at the Stade de France, an Italy starting over &#183; Bankroll Atlas","og_description":"France vs Italy prediction: 1-1, Olise then Bastoni, no home win for Zidane at the Stade de France. 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