{"id":3000,"date":"2026-09-30T17:42:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T15:42:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:09:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T17:09:55","slug":"bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Four rounds, three wins, thirteen points: Bayonne sit fourth and host Stade Fran\u00e7ais at Jean Dauger on Saturday, with Vincent Blasco Baque refereeing. Paris have not won away yet. The real bet is the handicap.<\/p>\n<h2>Coly back at scrum-half, Tuilagi keeps the captaincy<\/h2>\n<p>Injured in round one against Toulon (hamstring), Coly returns: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sudouest.fr\/sport\/rugby\/aviron-bayonnais\/aviron-bayonnais-leo-coly-de-retour-comme-titulaire-manu-tuilagi-capitaine-face-au-stade-francais-30848848.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sud Ouest<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ici.fr\/nouvelle-aquitaine\/pyrenees-atlantiques-64\/bayonne\/aviron-bayonnais-leo-coly-de-retour-contre-le-stade-francais-la-compo-probable-4496104\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ICI publish the same probable XV<\/a>, the Coly-Segonds half-back pairing, Tuilagi as captain and Fischer back in the back row. The <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/feuille-de-match\/2026-2027\/j5\/11847-bayonne-paris\/compositions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">official lineups<\/a> are still not out, so I read that team as a probable one, not a confirmed one.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tilloles, a left thigh concern on Tuesday, is expected on the bench;<\/li>\n<li>Jantjies did fly back from South Africa, after a cancelled flight and a Paris stopover, but only came to greet the squad in civilian clothes: no first minutes announced, he is not on the probable bench;<\/li>\n<li>the injury list is unchanged: Orab\u00e9 serving his suspension, Leota (knee) out for two to three weeks, Castillon, Iturria, Cormenier and Alainu&#8217;uese still sidelined;<\/li>\n<li>Iturria, Cormenier and Alainu&#8217;uese are hoped back for the Cheetahs on 18 October, Erbinartegaray (concussion) should return to training on Monday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>A Paris side that does not travel<\/h2>\n<p>Eighth on nine points, Stade Fran\u00e7ais beat Perpignan and Lyon at home and lost at Clermont and Bordeaux. Twenty-one points scored per match, thirty for Bayonne. The club still remembers the 35-34 conceded at Jean Dauger on 27 December: Hirigoyen, Delbouis and Kockott call it revenge.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.minutesports.fr\/2026\/09\/29\/stade-francais-paul-gustard-a-tranche-pour-son-avenir\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul Gustard, extended to 2029<\/a>, is without Monin, Koffi, Briatte (shoulder, not before November), Alo-Emile (\u201cnot ready yet\u201d), McLean, Dakuwaqa, Abadie, Lodjro and Duguivalu. The Macalou file stays unclear: retirement announced then denied, a heavy operation reported, nothing confirmed by the club. He does not play on Saturday.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Team<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Opponent<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Venue<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Toulon<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<td>27-26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Clermont<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<td>46-24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Pau<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<td>28-70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Racing 92<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<td>20-17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<td>28-26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Lyon<\/td>\n<td>Home<\/td>\n<td>31-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Clermont<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<td>16-25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Bordeaux B\u00e8gles<\/td>\n<td>Away<\/td>\n<td>10-40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Bayonne minus 7.5 at 1.90<\/h2>\n<p>The winner looks settled: 1.34 with Betano on Friday for Bayonne, shortened from the opening 1.38. Nothing to take at that price. I move to the main handicap, Bayonne \u22127.5 at 1.90 with 1xbet, a line that has not moved; Paris +7.5 has come in instead, from 1.91 to 1.85. Two of Bayonne&#8217;s three wins came by a point and by three: the market knows it, and so do I. I give Bayonne clearing eight points a 51% chance; the price implies 53. No edge: minimum stake, 0.25 units ($25), at a quarter <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly<\/a>. Bayonne win by eight or more: +$22.50. By seven or fewer, a draw, or a Paris win: \u2212$25.<\/p>\n<p>This pick joins my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, whatever the outcome. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>Three points again<\/h2>\n<p>Bayonne beat Stade Fran\u00e7ais 35-32. A three-point margin, like the win at Racing 92 the week before: the scenario the market knew came back, and it is what sank the bet. The Bayonne win was readable from afar; the eight-point margin never was.<\/p>\n<p>Bayonne \u22127.5 at 1.90 with 1xbet is lost: $25 of minimum stake. I wrote that this line gave me no edge; the stake matched that read, and the final score agrees with it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bayonne beat Stade Fran\u00e7ais 35-32, by three points: my bet on Bayonne \u22127.5 at 1.90 is lost, $25 minimum stake.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4404,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Bayonne vs Stade Fran\u00e7ais prediction and Top 14 odds at Jean Dauger. I take Bayonne \u22127.5 points at 1.90 with 1xbet, minimum stake on Saturday.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Aviron Bayonnais","ba_away_name":"Stade Fran\u00e7ais Paris","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-03 14:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54109","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[40,101],"class_list":["post-3000","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby-en","ba_sport-top-14-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bayonne vs Stade Fran\u00e7ais prediction and Top 14 odds at Jean Dauger. I take Bayonne \u22127.5 points at 1.90 with 1xbet, minimum stake on Saturday.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet &#183; Bankroll Atlas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bayonne vs Stade Fran\u00e7ais prediction and Top 14 odds at Jean Dauger. I take Bayonne \u22127.5 points at 1.90 with 1xbet, minimum stake on Saturday.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Bankroll Atlas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-03T17:09:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/themes\/bankroll-atlas\/assets\/icons\/og-default.png\" \/><meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Thomas Lacombe\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/dfb8d78827a13db7597f7b9903824c8b\"},\"headline\":\"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-30T15:42:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-03T17:09:55+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":554,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/\",\"name\":\"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet &#183; Bankroll Atlas\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/matches\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-30T15:42:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-03T17:09:55+00:00\",\"description\":\"Bayonne vs Stade Fran\u00e7ais prediction and Top 14 odds at Jean Dauger. 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For twelve years he has analysed set pieces, discipline and tactical choices to build his predictions. He follows the Top 14, the European cups and international rugby union most closely.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/authors\\\/thomas-lacombe\\\/\",\"knowsAbout\":[\"Rugby\",\"Top 14, European cups and international rugby union\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet &#183; Bankroll Atlas","description":"Bayonne vs Stade Fran\u00e7ais prediction and Top 14 odds at Jean Dauger. I take Bayonne \u22127.5 points at 1.90 with 1xbet, minimum stake on Saturday.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet &#183; Bankroll Atlas","og_description":"Bayonne vs Stade Fran\u00e7ais prediction and Top 14 odds at Jean Dauger. I take Bayonne \u22127.5 points at 1.90 with 1xbet, minimum stake on Saturday.","og_url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/","og_site_name":"Bankroll Atlas","article_modified_time":"2026-10-03T17:09:55+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/themes\/bankroll-atlas\/assets\/icons\/og-default.png","type":"","width":"","height":""},{"width":1200,"height":675,"url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/"},"author":{"name":"Thomas Lacombe","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dfb8d78827a13db7597f7b9903824c8b"},"headline":"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet","datePublished":"2026-09-30T15:42:03+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-03T17:09:55+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/"},"wordCount":554,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp","inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/","name":"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet &#183; Bankroll Atlas","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp","datePublished":"2026-09-30T15:42:03+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-03T17:09:55+00:00","description":"Bayonne vs Stade Fran\u00e7ais prediction and Top 14 odds at Jean Dauger. I take Bayonne \u22127.5 points at 1.90 with 1xbet, minimum stake on Saturday.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-en-b7c4ba4c.webp","width":1200,"height":675,"caption":"Aviron Bayonnais \u2013 Stade Fran\u00e7ais Paris \u00b7 Top 14 \u00b7 35-32"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/bayonne-stade-francais-prediction-2026-10-03\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Matchs","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Bayonne at home to a Stade Fran\u00e7ais side without an away win: the handicap is the bet"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","name":"Bankroll Atlas","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization","name":"Bankroll Atlas","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Bankroll Atlas"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dfb8d78827a13db7597f7b9903824c8b","name":"Thomas Lacombe","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1d13f866bb6e0061897d347813b613cffe68e8c3e6edd0669e0082b37c99a140?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1d13f866bb6e0061897d347813b613cffe68e8c3e6edd0669e0082b37c99a140?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1d13f866bb6e0061897d347813b613cffe68e8c3e6edd0669e0082b37c99a140?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Thomas Lacombe"},"description":"A former amateur scrum-half, Thomas stayed involved in rugby by coaching a youth side. 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