{"id":3038,"date":"2026-09-30T18:08:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:08:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/two-defeats-and-thirteen-absentees-and-la-rochelle-are-still-1-20-against-clermont\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:10:52","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T17:10:52","slug":"la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Two defeats and thirteen absentees, and La Rochelle are still 1.19 against Clermont"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Same record of two wins and two defeats each, and the table upside down: Clermont sixth, La Rochelle eleventh. At Deflandre on Saturday, La Rochelle are still the ones priced at 1.19 on Friday with Betano, a price that has hardened all week from an opening 1.25; it stood at 1.20 when I wrote these lines. Clermont have not won a match outside the Michelin: two trips, two defeats. The market has backed the venue. It looks to me like a heavy price on a team that has just lost twice in a row.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont publish their injuries, La Rochelle let the lists run<\/h2>\n<p>Four days before the match, La Rochelle opened a training session to the public at Deflandre. What stands out is the list beside it: Latu suspended, and twelve injured men announced, from Danty to Skelton by way of Moerat and Bourgarit.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Latu, suspended;<\/li>\n<li>Danty, Skelton, Kriel, Moerat, Berjon, Lagivala, Moala, Tuifua, Fraissenon, Bourgarit, Seuteni and Loustalot, injured;<\/li>\n<li>every one of these absences circulates without a club bulletin.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Clermont are more transparent: Kremer banned for four weeks, Ojovan, Tolofua, Ratuva and Muarua in the infirmary, AJ Lam easing back in. The club said so itself in its medical update of 25 September, before hosting Castres. On Friday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lamontagne.fr\/clermont-ferrand-63000\/sports\/asm-clermont-un-cadre-du-paquet-d-avants-forfait-pour-le-deplacement-a-la-rochelle_15056796\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La Montagne ran a headline about a forward-pack stalwart ruled out of the trip<\/a>, without naming him; Clermont have confirmed nothing.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/feuille-de-match\/2026-2027\/j5\/11851-la-rochelle-clermont\/compositions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">official lineups<\/a> are still not out on the eve of the match; Jonathan Gasnier will referee, and the club has announced a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.staderochelais.com\/actualites\/news\/au-complet-pour-clermont-le-point-sur-les-anim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sold-out Deflandre<\/a> for Clermont&#8217;s visit.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont score four tries a match, but only at the Michelin<\/h2>\n<p>On the pitch, Clermont are the more prolific side: 26 points and four tries per match, against 20 points and two tries for La Rochelle. But both Clermont away trips ended in defeat, by four points at Lyon and by twenty-two at Bayonne. The Michelin weighs: nine points out of ten taken at home, none away.<\/p>\n<p>La Rochelle live the opposite: they beat Toulouse (30-27) and won at Toulon (21-20), then collapsed, 10-20 against Racing 92 at home and 17-39 in Pau on Saturday, a hammering.<\/p>\n<p>Two La Rochelle men hold the boat up: Tixeront, the best ball-thief in the Top 14 with eight turnovers won, and Darricarr\u00e8re. In a match where La Rochelle stay favourites, they will decide the breakdown.<\/p>\n<p>The first four rounds, side by side:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Round<\/th>\n<th>Stade Rochelais<\/th>\n<th>Clermont<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>R1<\/td>\n<td>30-27 winners over Toulouse<\/td>\n<td>beaten 36-40 at Lyon<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R2<\/td>\n<td>21-20 winners at Toulon<\/td>\n<td>25-16 winners over Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R3<\/td>\n<td>beaten 10-20 by Racing 92<\/td>\n<td>beaten 24-46 at Bayonne<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R4<\/td>\n<td>beaten 17-39 at Pau<\/td>\n<td>20-6 winners over Castres<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>At 20 points a match, you do not win by twelve<\/h2>\n<p>Recent head-to-heads have been decisive: Clermont 32-27 last January, La Rochelle 34-16 in September 2025, Clermont 33-19 in March, La Rochelle 20-15 in December 2024. Twice out of four, the margin went past eleven points. That is the real debate of this bet: La Rochelle, averaging 20 points, need 33 to cover a bonus-point win. A team that has just shipped 39 in Pau, with a full treatment room, is not heading for that festival.<\/p>\n<p>The main line sits at 11.5 points: Clermont +11.5 at 1.85 with Unibet, and a La Rochelle price that has hardened, from 2.00 at the opening to 1.90 on Friday with 1xbet. The market sees a tight scoreline in a match controlled by La Rochelle. So do I, and I take the protection.<\/p>\n<h2>My bet: Clermont with an eleven-and-a-half-point start<\/h2>\n<p>I am taking Clermont +11.5 points at 1.85 with Unibet. It lands if Clermont win, draw or lose by eleven points or fewer; it falls if they lose by twelve or more. I make it 58% likely, where the market implies barely more than one in two. The edge is real but thin, and the stake says so: 0.25 units, $25, for a potential gain of $21.25. To redo the maths, the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> gives the same stake.<\/p>\n<p>Win or lose, this bet goes on my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>Deflandre left no protection at all<\/h2>\n<p>La Rochelle beat Clermont 38-13. Twenty-five points in it: the eleven-and-a-half-point cushion never held. I expected a controlled match on a 1.19 favourite; Deflandre saw something else.<\/p>\n<p>I wrote that at 20 points a game La Rochelle would stay in a tight match: they scored 38, with the treatment room as full as announced. Clermont stay winless outside the Michelin. Clermont +11.5 at 1.85 with Unibet is lost: $25 of minimum stake, and the La Rochelle handicap hardening since the opening had seen this match before I did.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Rochelle beat Clermont 38-13, by twenty-five points: my bet on Clermont +11.5 at 1.85 is lost, $25 minimum stake.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4399,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"La Rochelle v Clermont prediction: same records, thirteen home absentees. Tip: Clermont +11.5 points at 1.85 with Unibet, stake and analysis.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"La Rochelle","ba_away_name":"Clermont","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-03 14:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54111","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[40,101],"class_list":["post-3038","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby-en","ba_sport-top-14-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Two defeats and thirteen absentees, and La Rochelle are still 1.19 against Clermont &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Rochelle v Clermont prediction: same records, thirteen home absentees. 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Tip: Clermont +11.5 points at 1.85 with Unibet, stake and analysis.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Two defeats and thirteen absentees, and La Rochelle are still 1.19 against Clermont &#183; Bankroll Atlas","og_description":"La Rochelle v Clermont prediction: same records, thirteen home absentees. Tip: Clermont +11.5 points at 1.85 with Unibet, stake and analysis.","og_url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/","og_site_name":"Bankroll Atlas","article_modified_time":"2026-10-03T17:10:52+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/themes\/bankroll-atlas\/assets\/icons\/og-default.png","type":"","width":"","height":""},{"width":1200,"height":675,"url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-la-rochelle-clermont-en-34f532ce.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/"},"author":{"name":"Thomas Lacombe","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dfb8d78827a13db7597f7b9903824c8b"},"headline":"Two defeats and thirteen absentees, and La Rochelle are still 1.19 against Clermont","datePublished":"2026-09-30T16:08:29+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-03T17:10:52+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/"},"wordCount":759,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-la-rochelle-clermont-en-34f532ce.webp","inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/","name":"Two defeats and thirteen absentees, and La Rochelle are still 1.19 against Clermont &#183; Bankroll Atlas","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-clermont-prediction-2026-10-03\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-la-rochelle-clermont-en-34f532ce.webp","datePublished":"2026-09-30T16:08:29+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-03T17:10:52+00:00","description":"La Rochelle v Clermont prediction: same records, thirteen home absentees. 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