{"id":3061,"date":"2026-09-30T18:11:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:11:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/montpellier-are-favourites-at-the-mosson-against-a-toulon-side-that-has-beaten-them-five-times-in-a-row\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T00:06:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T22:06:13","slug":"montpellier-toulon-prediction-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/rugby\/top-14\/montpellier-toulon-prediction-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Montpellier are favourites at the Mosson, against a Toulon side that has beaten them five times in a row"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Sunday evening, Montpellier play at the Mosson. The Septeo Stadium pitch was ruled unplayable, \u201cpathogenic factors\u201d encouraged by the summer heatwaves, and the LNR and the metropolitan authority approved the relocation, the first in fifteen years. Montpellier will not play at home again until 31 October, against Castres. Meanwhile, the market has already made up its mind: Montpellier, and by a margin.<\/p>\n

Montpellier keep their finalist’s credit<\/h2>\n

Without their ground, the MHR keep their form: seventh in the Top 14, two wins, including a 50-13 handed to Perpignan. Runners-up in the last championship, beaten 20-28 by Toulouse in June, the club extended manager Joan Caudullo to 2029 in mid-September.<\/p>\n

After the 18-40 defeat at Toulouse, Caudullo accepted the scoreline and pointed to a physical dip between the 40th and the 70th minute. That is exactly when the benches come on, and Toulon’s bench is a serious one.<\/p>\n

And one man is back: Lenni Nouchi. A severe left ankle sprain in mid-July in Japan, two and a half months out, the operation avoided. On Friday Caudullo settled it: \u201cLenni will be in the group to face Toulon.\u201d<\/a> Most likely on the bench.<\/p>\n

Toulon lose everything by narrow margins<\/h2>\n

Three Toulon defeats, by one point, one point and two points: 26-27 at Bayonne, 20-21 against La Rochelle, 27-29 at Castres. No away win in two trips, but no thrashing either. Against Vannes, the RCT saved their first win 28-10 with a bench of five French internationals: Gros, Rebbadj, Ollivon, Serin, Fickou. The first half had been dire, about ten knock-ons and boos at half-time; Franck Az\u00e9ma calls his team \u201cin learning\u201d, prepared \u201cwith frustration and anger\u201d.<\/p>\n

And then there is history: Toulon have beaten Montpellier five times in a row, including 27-17 in Montpellier in September 2025.<\/p>\n

The fog has lifted: Toulon published a medical bulletin<\/a> on Friday, and it confirms nine of the ten names that had been circulating for days. The tenth, Tuicuvu, is not on it: the press probable XV has him starting, and nothing from the club rules him out.<\/p>\n