{"id":3741,"date":"2026-10-01T23:33:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:33:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/portugal-norway-prediction-2026-10-04\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T23:06:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T21:06:56","slug":"portugal-norway-prediction-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/portugal-norway-prediction-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Portugal v Norway: Ronaldo has left the camp, Portugal arrive on nine from nine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cristiano Ronaldo left Portugal\u2019s camp in Copenhagen for Madrid, and the federation answered in one line: preparation for the Norway game continues with the 24 remaining players. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.publico.pt\/2026\/10\/01\/desporto\/noticia\/pressa-tirarme-casos-ronaldo-queiroz-paulo-bento-fernando-santos-2189945\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P\u00fablico<\/a> confirms what the dressing room already knew: Jorge Jesus had not planned him for Norway or for Denmark, and he did not play a minute at Ullevaal. The saga filled the front pages; it changes nothing about Sunday\u2019s fixture at the Drag\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p>Nothing, because the match still reads the same way: a team on nine points out of nine hosts a side that has just lost twice in a row, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpf.pt\/pt\/News\/Todas-as-not%C3%ADcias\/Not%C3%ADcia\/news\/58047\/contextid\/172\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in front of a sold-out Drag\u00e3o<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>A draw would be enough for Portugal\u2019s quarter-final place<\/h2>\n<p>The head coach said it on 30 September: three or four changes per game, because four matches in eleven days are not played by the same eleven. Rotation has not broken the attack: seven goals in three outings, a 1-0 over Wales, a 2-1 in Norway, a 4-2 in Denmark on Thursday. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.correiodamanhacanada.com\/liga-nacoes-portugal-treina-no-dragao-antes-do-duelo-com-a-noruega\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The final training session took place at the Drag\u00e3o on Saturday<\/a>, and a draw would be enough for Portugal to book a quarter-final place. The official teamsheet confirms the rotation: Palhinha holds the anchor role in the 4-1-3-2, Bruno Fernandes plays off Gon\u00e7alo Ramos, and Norway line up \u00d8degaard, Nusa and Schjelderup around Haaland.<\/p>\n<h3>What to watch on Sunday<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Portugal\u2019s attacking set pieces, which Jesus admits he has not worked on yet;<\/li>\n<li>The fitness of Concei\u00e7\u00e3o and Jo\u00e3o F\u00e9lix: one missed the 4-2 in Copenhagen, the other only did specific work on Friday; both start;<\/li>\n<li>The Norwegian goal: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtp.pt\/noticias\/desporto\/noruega-e-proximo-adversario-jorge-jesus-acarinhado-por-adeptos-no-porto_e1769193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Solbakken has confirmed Selvik will start<\/a>, a choice long in the making and unrelated to results; Nyland learned of it on television;<\/li>\n<li>Norway\u2019s central defence without Heggem, absent on Sunday;<\/li>\n<li>The referee, Italy\u2019s Maurizio Mariani.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Two goals conceded in each of the last three games<\/h2>\n<p>In Cardiff, Norway opened the scoring in the 11th minute with a move involving Berge, Bobb and \u00d8degaard, and led until the 38th. Then it broke: Daniel James before the break, Neco Williams just after it. Solbakken called his side pretty in the first half and too weak defensively, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fotball.no\/landslag\/norge-a-herrer\/2026\/disse-starter-mot-wales\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Norwegian federation\u2019s report<\/a> tells the same story. Three games, six goals conceded, two per match, no exception.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Side<\/th>\n<th>Opponent<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>at Denmark<\/td>\n<td>4-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>at Norway<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>Wales<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Norway<\/td>\n<td>at Wales<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Norway<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Norway<\/td>\n<td>Denmark<\/td>\n<td>3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Norway have scored in each of those three games; what gives way is the back line.<\/p>\n<h2>Since Thursday, the market has swung back to Portugal<\/h2>\n<p>I took Portugal to win at 1.88 with 10BET on Thursday evening, while the market still doubted the legs. The 4-2 in Copenhagen turned the move around: the best price is back down to 1.68 with Bwin ES this Saturday, from 1.80 at the opening, and the -0.75 handicap has come in from 2.025 to 1.75 with Bet365. At 1.68 the market gives Portugal nearly a 60 percent chance; at my price it gave barely 53.<\/p>\n<h2>My bet stands: Portugal to win, taken at 1.88<\/h2>\n<p>Portugal to win in 90 minutes, taken at 1.88 with 10BET, one unit, $100. I give them a 57 percent chance; the market now gives nearly 60 at 1.68. Thursday\u2019s price is gone, the bet stays. The -0.75 handicap would need a two-goal margin to pay in full; against a team that scores every time out, I prefer the straight win. The stake follows <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">the Kelly calculator<\/a>. This bet joins my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>. Portugal win: +$88.00; draw or Norway win: -$100.00.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>Fourth win in four, the quarters are sealed<\/h2>\n<p>Portugal 2, Norway 1. The draw that would have been enough was never needed, and Norway finished the window the way it started it: one goal scored, two conceded, the run now four matches long. My bet won: Portugal to win at 1.88 with 10BET, one unit, +$88. The price had swung to Portugal after the 4-2 in Copenhagen; Thursday\u2019s reading was enough.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Portugal 2-1 Norway: a fourth win in four and a place in the quarters; my bet on Portugal to win at 1.88 with 10BET pays +$88.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4860,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Portugal v Norway prediction: without Ronaldo at the Drag\u00e3o, I took Portugal to win at 1.88 with 10BET. Form, rotation and stake explained.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Portugal","ba_away_name":"Norway","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-04 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Est\u00e1dio do Drag\u00e3o","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528941","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,46],"class_list":["post-3741","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-nations-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Portugal v Norway: Ronaldo has left the camp, Portugal arrive on nine from nine &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Portugal v Norway prediction: without Ronaldo at the Drag\u00e3o, I took Portugal to win at 1.88 with 10BET. 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