{"id":3783,"date":"2026-10-01T23:47:44","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/greece-germany-prediction-2026-10-04\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T23:08:49","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T21:08:49","slug":"greece-germany-prediction-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/greece-germany-prediction-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Greece \u2013 Germany: a week after the 1-0 in Augsburg, Klopp keeps his second wave"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On 27 September in Augsburg, Kourbelis scored the game\u2019s only goal on 74 minutes and Greece won in Germany for the first time in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epo.gr\/en\/articles\/uefa-nations-league-historic-victories-greece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">eleven meetings<\/a>. Seven days later the two sides meet again in Thessaloniki, with three points between them in the group: Greece on 7, Germany on 4.<\/p>\n<h2>One late concession, nothing more<\/h2>\n<p>Greece come out of the October window unbeaten: two wins on the road, then Thursday\u2019s 2-2 at home to the Netherlands. That night, Ioannidis and Masouras had them two up before half-time; Van Dijk on 59 minutes and Reijnders on 89 pulled back a team that had defended for an hour. That late Dutch equaliser is the only point dropped all campaign. Tzolakis was decisive in Augsburg.<\/p>\n<p>The Greek attack reshuffles: Christos Tzolis, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ertnews.gr\/athlitismos\/nations-league-pelkas-anti-tzoli-stin-ethniki-enopsei-tou-agona-me-germania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">out with a muscle injury<\/a> against the Netherlands, has left the squad, and Dimitris Pelkas comes in as reinforcement. The official teamsheet settles it: Masouras does start in place of Tzolis, Pavlidis and Kourbelis both play on, and Karetsas stays on the bench. According to the Greek press, France\u2019s Cl\u00e9ment Turpin will take charge of the game.<\/p>\n<p>The three window fixtures, all in the Nations League:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Opponent<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Greece<\/td>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Netherlands (H)<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Greece<\/td>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Germany (A)<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Greece<\/td>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Serbia (A)<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Germany<\/td>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Serbia (H)<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Germany<\/td>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Greece (H)<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Germany<\/td>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Netherlands (A)<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Klopp keeps his second wave<\/h2>\n<p>Against Serbia, J\u00fcrgen Klopp made seventeen changes from the Greece game and fielded nine uncapped players, Urbig in goal and Wirtz with the armband. The 2-0 (Bischof, Wirtz) was his first win as Germany coach, at the third attempt. The same core covers the return: this second wave plays Serbia then Greece back to back. The German press talks of \u201cmaking amends\u201d after Augsburg; Klopp himself wants the \u201cquick revenge\u201d. In goal, the projections gave Finn Dahmen; the official sheet stays loyal to Urbig, and Wirtz starts again.<\/p>\n<p>When nine players are new to international football together, the missing automatisms cost you: in the pressing, who jumps to the ball-carrier and who guards the second ball gets decided on the run. Germany found answers against Serbia; Greece will ask a different question.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Nico Schlotterbeck, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fussballdaten.de\/news\/neben-schlotterbeck-dfb-neuling-serbien-spiel-gestrichen\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">out with ankle ligament damage<\/a>, misses the return in Thessaloniki;<\/li>\n<li>Serge Gnabry does not travel: Felix Keidel, cut after the Serbia game, has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gazzetta.gr\/football\/uefa-nations-league\/2574026\/germania-ektos-apostolis-o-gknampri-gia-ton-agona-kontra-stin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recalled in his place<\/a>, on Sky Sport Deutschland\u2019s information;<\/li>\n<li>Joshua Kimmich, no longer part of the squad.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>The market has moved to Germany<\/h2>\n<p>At writing, Germany were 2.10 with Betano; by Saturday they had gone to 1.91, under the even line. Greece have moved the other way: 4.10 with Bet365, from 3.70 on Thursday. The draw is 3.86 with 1xbet. The market has replayed Germany\u2019s 2-0 over Serbia and Greece\u2019s 89th-minute concession.<\/p>\n<p>My double chance has followed the opposite path: taken at 1.875 with Betway on Thursday, it now quotes 1.992 with 1xbet. Today\u2019s price pays the outcome better than the one I took.<\/p>\n<h2>My bet: Greece or draw at 1.875<\/h2>\n<p>The take stays Thursday\u2019s: 1.875 with Betway. Today\u2019s market gives that outcome barely a one-in-two chance (1.992); I make it 56%. Won if Greece win or draw: +$65.63 for a 0.75-unit stake. Lost if Germany win: \u2212$75.00. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<p>Where I see the edge: Greece beat this Germany side away a week ago, and Klopp fields another reshuffled eleven. Both attacks have lost a player since Thursday; a tighter game suits the outcome I am covering. The 0.75-unit stake follows the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a>; the edge is modest, and so is the stake. It will be settled in my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, win or lose.<\/p>\n<p>The scenario that wins the bet: Greece hold their low block and strike on the transition, as in Augsburg, while the German eleven look for their bearings. The one that loses it: the momentum from the 2-0 over Serbia takes hold from kick-off and the German pressing cuts off Greek build-up play.<\/p>\n<h2>The Greek block held, and the bet with it<\/h2>\n<p>Greece 0, Germany 0. The scenario played out as written: a closed low block, a German eleven still looking for bearings, a game locked to the end. Greece finish the window unbeaten and stay three points clear of a Germany that never scored in Thessaloniki. My bet won: Greece or draw at 1.875 with Betway, 0.75 units, +$65.63. The \u201cor draw\u201d did the work, not the win; Augsburg stays the prettier match.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Greece 0-0 Germany: the Greek block held, the window ends unbeaten; my bet on Greece or draw at 1.875 with Betway pays +$65.63.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4875,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Greece vs Germany prediction: after the 1-0 in Augsburg, I keep the double chance Greece or draw taken at 1.875 with Betway. Analysis, odds and stake.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Greece","ba_away_name":"Germany","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-04 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Toumba Stadium","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528939","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,46],"class_list":["post-3783","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-nations-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Greece \u2013 Germany: a week after the 1-0 in Augsburg, Klopp keeps his second wave &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Greece vs Germany prediction: after the 1-0 in Augsburg, I keep the double chance Greece or draw taken at 1.875 with Betway. 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