{"id":4643,"date":"2026-10-04T11:33:01","date_gmt":"2026-10-04T09:33:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/croatia-vs-spain-prediction-2026-10-06\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T23:19:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T21:19:57","slug":"croatia-vs-spain-prediction-2026-10-06","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/nations-league\/croatia-vs-spain-prediction-2026-10-06\/","title":{"rendered":"Croatia vs Spain: can a broken Croatia keep the world champions within one goal?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Luka Modri\u0107 needed twenty years to meet this feeling. \u201cFor the first time in twenty years, I feel shame\u201d, <a href=\"https:\/\/hns.team\/vijesti\/31822\/modric-ne-treba-traziti-krivce-u-ovome-trebamo-biti-zajedno\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said the Croatia captain<\/a> after the 7-0 against England in Rijeka, the heaviest defeat in the country&#8217;s history. Three days later, world champions Spain arrive at Poljud. Slaven Bili\u0107 promises a real, manly match to make up for it. The fixture list could hardly have picked a worse opponent for redemption.<\/p>\n<h2>Croatia at the bottom, with three days to get up<\/h2>\n<p>Three points from three games: the 2-1 won in Prague, then 1-4 in Seville and 0-7 at home to England, four goals down by half-time. Bili\u0107 publicly apologised for forgetting to put his hand on his heart during the anthem, one more row a proud country did not need. Modri\u0107 refuses to look for scapegoats and asks his team to stay together.<\/p>\n<p>In Monday&#8217;s press conference, Bili\u0107 said he could see a few small weaknesses in Spain&#8217;s game, the ones England exposed; the official teamsheet confirms the expected names: Modri\u0107 and Kova\u010di\u0107 start, Gvardiol lines up in defence, Peri\u0161i\u0107 on the wing and Matanovi\u0107 alone up front. The treatment room keeps filling: Martin Erli\u0107, injured, and Josip Juranovi\u0107, ill, are out. The words are in place; the schedule is not: three days of recovery against a side that has rotated for ten days.<\/p>\n<h2>Spain rotate, and that is where the game opens<\/h2>\n<p>Nine points from nine, and <a href=\"https:\/\/rtvc.es\/a-espana-le-vale-empate-ante-croacia-para-cuartos-final-liga-naciones-4-octobre-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a draw would be enough<\/a> to reach the quarter-finals. Luis de la Fuente has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtve.es\/deportes\/20260928\/luis-de-la-fuente-rueda-prensa-espana-croacia-directo-cronica\/17243840.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">confirmed rotations<\/a> while keeping the team&#8217;s structure: four games in ten days have to be managed. His squad <a href=\"https:\/\/gol.dnevnik.hr\/clanak\/rubrika\/nogomet\/veliki-problemi-za-spanjolce-pred-dolazak-na-poljud-zbog-ozljeda-im-otpala-cak-cetvorica-igraca---1005394.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has thinned<\/a> during the window:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Eric Garc\u00eda, knee injured in the warm-up at Wembley;<\/li>\n<li>Grimaldo and Nico Williams, hamstring;<\/li>\n<li>Ferran Torres, left ankle, replaced by Carlos Esp\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Pedro Porro had already dropped out of the list before the camp. The teamsheet has settled it: Ferm\u00edn L\u00f3pez, tipped for a first competitive start, stays out of the XI; Baena and Pubill start, and the spine does not move: Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Oyarzabal all in the first eleven. A patched Spain remains the Spain of Seville, the one leading 4-1.<\/p>\n<h2>Two Croatian holds in five meetings<\/h2>\n<p>The last five meetings split into two beatings and two matches Croatia got points from:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Competition<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>29\/09\/2026<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>Spain \u2013 Croatia<\/td>\n<td>4-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>15\/06\/2024<\/td>\n<td>Euro<\/td>\n<td>Spain \u2013 Croatia<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>18\/06\/2023<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>Croatia \u2013 Spain<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>28\/06\/2021<\/td>\n<td>Euro<\/td>\n<td>Croatia \u2013 Spain<\/td>\n<td>3-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>15\/11\/2018<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>Croatia \u2013 Spain<\/td>\n<td>3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Twice, Croatia held or beat Spain in front of their own crowd; in the other three, they conceded at least three goals.<\/p>\n<h2>What the price says<\/h2>\n<p>On Sunday Spain traded at 1.44 with 10BET; by Monday they had shortened to 1.29 with Betano. Croatia have drifted the other way, from 9.00 to 9.7 with 1xbet. In twenty-four hours the market has leaned further towards Spain. On the winner, the price looks right to me. My bet is elsewhere.<\/p>\n<h2>My bet: Croatia +1.5 at 2.00<\/h2>\n<p>I took Croatia +1.5 at 2.00 with Bet365 on Sunday, 0.75 units ($75); the price has since drifted to 2.075 with the same bookmaker, and my bet stays at 2.00. The losing scenario is one Croatia lived twice in eight days: 1-4 in Seville, 0-7 in Rijeka. The winning one: a team camped in front of its own crowd against a Spain that a draw suits. I still make Croatia +1.5 54%; the market is down to 46.0%.<\/p>\n<p>In plain terms: Croatia win, draw or lose by one goal, and the bet pays $75. They collapse by two goals or more, as in Seville, and it is down. The stake follows my <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">staking rule<\/a>; the bet joins my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>Poljud on its feet, then the Merino double<\/h2>\n<p>Croatia lost 1-2 in Split, but for a full half it looked like redemption. Peri\u0161i\u0107 headed them in front on 17 minutes, onto a rebound from Unai Sim\u00f3n; 1-0 at the break, Poljud standing. Merino, on for Baena at half-time, equalised on 61 and won the game on 88, two left-footed finishes. Peri\u0161i\u0107 went off on a second yellow on 79, and Spain head for the quarter-finals on four wins from four.<\/p>\n<p>My bet was against the collapse: Croatia winning, drawing or losing by one. They lost by one, exactly, and the +1.5 at 2.00 with Bet365 pays $75. I expected a team camped in front of its own crowd against a Spain happy with a draw; Spain had 72% of the ball, but the margin stayed where the bet needed it. The redemption lasted an hour; the second Croatian goal never came.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Croatia led at half-time, then Merino flipped it (1-2). My Croatia +1.5 at 2.00 won: a one-goal defeat, exactly the scenario (+$75).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5510,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Croatia vs Spain prediction: after the record 0-7, I back Croatia +1.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Team news, odds and betting tips for the tie in Split.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Croatia","ba_away_name":"Spain","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-06 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stadion Poljud","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528952","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,46],"class_list":["post-4643","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-nations-league-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Croatia vs Spain: can a broken Croatia keep the world champions within one goal? &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Croatia vs Spain prediction: after the record 0-7, I back Croatia +1.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. 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