{"id":6445,"date":"2026-10-09T11:40:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T09:40:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/five-straight-defeats-and-marseille-are-still-favourites-at-troyes\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T10:19:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T08:19:53","slug":"troyes-marseille-prediction-2026-10-11","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/troyes-marseille-prediction-2026-10-11\/","title":{"rendered":"Five straight defeats and Marseille are still favourites at Troyes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sixteenth hosts seventeenth in Ligue 1, and the visitors are the favourites. On Marseille’s squad depth, fair enough. In the reality of the moment, it is up for debate: five straight defeats, the last against Paris Saint-Germain (1-2) in late September, and a starting eleven to rebuild at the Stade de l’Aube on Sunday. The market has not let go of OM. I have.<\/p>\n

Five defeats, and still favourites<\/h2>\n

Marseille have lost five in a row across competitions: Monaco, Paris FC and Rennes in Ligue 1, Be\u015fikta\u015f in the Europa League (1-4), then Paris Saint-Germain (1-2). Three points from five rounds, seventeenth. Sports.fr reports real worry in the club’s entourage<\/a> ahead of this trip. On Friday, Bruno Genesio called it an \u201cemergency\u201d<\/a>: four straight Ligue 1 defeats to stop, and eight matches to play in under a month. On Saturday he insisted he was \u201cnot worn out\u201d<\/a>, \u201creassured\u201d by the break’s exchange with president St\u00e9phane Richard. Troyes do not profit from the chaos either: four points, one win (2-1 at Lorient), and a goal difference of -7.<\/p>\n

The market holds its line: 1.93 for OM with Betano on Friday, Troyes and the draw at 4.04 with 1xbet on Saturday. At that price, a Marseille win is rated a little better than even money, barely.<\/p>\n

Weah suspended, H\u00f8jbjerg out: the right flank gets rebuilt<\/h2>\n

Marseille’s team list reads like a post-break infirmary. H\u00f8jbjerg has a thigh lesion<\/a>, picked up with Denmark, and should be out for around two weeks: he misses Troyes. Weah is suspended<\/a> after his red card against Paris Saint-Germain. Cornelius is out for several months<\/a> (hip). Among the returns, Genesio says he can count on Gouiri, Abdelli and Harit, perhaps even on Kondogbia, back with the group; Nnadi is fit. Me\u00eft\u00e9 turned an ankle on Wednesday but should make the squad, and Egan-Riley remains a doubt (ankle).<\/p>\n

In the probable elevens, Bezahaf or U. Garcia covers for Weah, and the front line stays Maupay – Moumbagna: Gouiri does not appear in it yet. The right lane and the first midfield relay change on the same weekend. For Troyes, that is where to press: a new relay, a build-up still being bedded in, and the home block can pick its moment.<\/p>\n

Troyes defend too badly to aim for the win<\/h2>\n

The 2-6 against Strasbourg at the Stade de l’Aube sums up Troyes’ problem: points taken at Lorient, then 0-2 at Lille, 0-2 at Angers, and that 2-6 in front of their own fans. On the injury list, Titi and Boura are out, Boura for several weeks (hip); Gozzi and Ifnaoui, back in training, are ruled out by part of the press and kept until the last minute by the rest; Kone stays doubtful, and Phliponeau returns to the group. Ouzenadji, announced as injured, still starts in the press elevens.<\/p>\n

And history does not help: across the last five meetings, Troyes have taken a single point off Marseille, a 1-1 in 2022; the other four ended in defeats, including a 2-3 at home in 2018. A Troyes win is a bet on something that has not happened in the last five meetings.<\/p>\n

The recent form of both teams, friendly included:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nOpponent<\/th>\nCompetition<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
02\/10<\/td>\nTroyes<\/td>\nDijon (A)<\/td>\nFriendly<\/td>\n2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19\/09<\/td>\nTroyes<\/td>\nAngers (A)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n0-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13\/09<\/td>\nTroyes<\/td>\nLille (A)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n0-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
06\/09<\/td>\nTroyes<\/td>\nStrasbourg (H)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n2-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29\/08<\/td>\nTroyes<\/td>\nLorient (A)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20\/09<\/td>\nMarseille<\/td>\nParis SG (H)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17\/09<\/td>\nMarseille<\/td>\nBe\u015fikta\u015f (A)<\/td>\nEuropa League<\/td>\n1-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11\/09<\/td>\nMarseille<\/td>\nRennes (A)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
06\/09<\/td>\nMarseille<\/td>\nParis FC (H)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30\/08<\/td>\nMarseille<\/td>\nMonaco (A)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n0-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

My bet: Troyes or draw at 1.978<\/h2>\n

I take the double chance Troyes or draw with 1xbet: Troyes win or draw, the bet wins; OM win, it loses. At 1.978, the market puts that scenario at about even money; I make it 56%. The stake goes to 1.25 units, that is $125, for a net gain of $122.25 if Troyes take at least a point.<\/p>\n

Two caveats: the doubtful players on both sides can still change by Sunday, and the talent in the Marseille squad is real. A nominal favourite with five straight defeats and a rebuilt flank: that is the gap I am playing. The stake is worked out with the Kelly calculator<\/a> and the result goes into the public record<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n

Harit breaks it open, Marseille breathe: the double chance falls<\/h2>\n

Final score: Troyes 0-2 Marseille<\/a>. The score held for fifty minutes, then Harit broke the evening open with a volley at the back post from an Emerson cross. Abdelli sealed it in stoppage time (90+8), from a penalty won by the pressing of Moumbagna on a mix-up between a Troyes defender and their keeper. A first Marseille win since 21 August: OM climb out of the red zone, thirteenth on six points; Troyes slip to seventeenth, four points. The rebuilt flank I wanted to see under pressure held its evening: first professional starts for Bezahaf and Kamissoko, the latter going off with cramp on 73 minutes.<\/p>\n

The bet loses: Troyes or draw, the double chance at 1.978 with 1xbet, 1.25 units, $125 gone. I was playing a nominal favourite on five straight defeats and a rebuilt eleven; the eleven answered, Harit did too, and Troyes never weighed enough to take a point from it. The market put the scenario at about one chance in two, and it read the state of this OM better than I did. The loss goes to the public record, as always.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Harit and Abdelli win it for Marseille at Troyes (0-2), a first win since 21 August: the Troyes or draw double chance, 1.25 units, falls, $125 lost.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7499,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Troyes vs Marseille (Ligue 1): my prediction on the double chance Troyes or draw at 1.978, against an OM side on five straight defeats.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Troyes","ba_away_name":"Marseille","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-11 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stade de 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