{"id":7249,"date":"2026-10-11T11:55:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T09:55:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/fils-van-de-zandschulp-one-past-meeting-on-clay-and-92-per-cent-of-deciders-go-filss-way\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T15:12:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T13:12:14","slug":"fils-van-de-zandschulp-prediction-2026-10-12","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/tennis\/atp\/fils-van-de-zandschulp-prediction-2026-10-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Fils – Van de Zandschulp: one past meeting on clay, and 92 per cent of deciders go Fils\u2019s way"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the second round, Arthur Fils beat Kotov, ranked 187th and through qualifying, 6-3 6-4 in 1 hour 16, under a closed roof<\/a>: \u201cThe conditions are very fast,\u201d he said on his way out. In the same tournament, Botic van de Zandschulp saw off Michelsen, the 31st seed, 6-4 6-4, after saving five break points out of five. On Monday the two meet for the second time in their careers, and the first on hard.<\/p>\n

One precedent, on clay<\/h2>\n

Their only previous match was played in Bordeaux in 2024, on clay: Fils won 6-2 4-6 6-1. On hard their record is blank. A clay memory predicts nothing about a quick hard court in Shanghai: I file it away and watch the surface of the day.<\/p>\n

Van de Zandschulp, fresh from a US Open quarter-final<\/h2>\n

The Dutchman, ranked 41st, is in his best stretch on hard. At the US Open he reached the quarter-finals, beating De Minaur, ranked 7th, and Bergs, before Zverev stopped him. Here he started with a turned-around match against M\u00e9rida, 1-6 6-3 6-4, then a clean win over Michelsen. This third round is already his best result in Shanghai: in four appearances he had never gone past the second round. The Dutch press talks about his best form on hard<\/a>; his season on the surface reads 18-11, 10-5 at Masters 1000 level.<\/p>\n

What holds me with him: he has given nothing away cheap here. Five break points saved out of five against Michelsen sketch a player who keeps hold of his service games in the hot moments. On quick courts, that is the awkward profile for a seed.<\/p>\n

Fils: one match in the legs, 92 per cent of deciders<\/h2>\n

Fils, 22 years old, ranked 11th and seeded 8th, took the first-round bye: 76 minutes of competition since arriving. His season describes a player settled at the top of draws, a champion in Cincinnati, a finalist in Madrid, Barcelona and Doha, a semi-finalist in Miami. The Kotov win was his 21st at Masters 1000 level this year; only Sinner has more, with 29. The recent setback dates from Tokyo, a quarter-final lost to Vacherot on 4 October. Back from a stress fracture in late 2025, he says he is at 100 per cent; no concern has been reported on either side before this match.<\/p>\n

Over twelve months he wins 92 per cent of his deciding sets, against 48 per cent for the Dutchman. If the match reaches a third set, that is the heaviest number in it. He targets Paris next, and \u201cif Turin happens, it will be the cherry on the cake,\u201d he sums up<\/a>; the round schedule<\/a> hands him an opponent worthy of that ambition. The draw has already punished big names: Djokovic went out in his opener, and Ben Shelton, the 4th seed, fell on Sunday to Arthur Gea, ranked 56th.<\/p>\n

The head-to-head in three lines:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\nFils<\/th>\nVan de Zandschulp<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
ATP ranking<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Deciding sets, last 12 months<\/td>\n92 per cent won<\/td>\n48 per cent won<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Best surface<\/td>\nHard (67 per cent)<\/td>\nIndoor hard (62 per cent)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Three details can bend the match:<\/p>\n