{"id":7656,"date":"2026-10-12T11:36:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:36:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/zalgiris-won-in-barcelona-fenerbahce-need-to-win-by-eight\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T22:14:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T20:14:41","slug":"fenerbahce-zalgiris-kaunas-prediction-2026-10-13","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/fenerbahce-zalgiris-kaunas-prediction-2026-10-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Zalgiris won in Barcelona; Fenerbahce need to win by eight"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Friday, Zalgiris Kaunas won 88-81 in Barcelona, closing the game on <a href=\"https:\/\/zalgiris.lt\/en\/naujienos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a small-ball five<\/a>. On Tuesday, the same team play in Istanbul, where Fenerbahce have lost one game in four EuroLeague rounds. The market has the Turks well clear; I have them clear too, by a slightly wider margin: I am taking the -7.5.<\/p>\n<h2>Fenerbahce roll on, except at Panathinaikos<\/h2>\n<p>Three wide wins and one slap: Virtus Bologna beaten 78-68, Bayern 100-76, Dubai 76-66, and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/euroleague\/game-center\/2026-27\/fenerbahce-%C4%B0stanbul-zalgiris-kaunas\/E2026\/46\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">74-92 defeat at Panathinaikos<\/a> on 8 October. Zalgiris win away from Kaunas: 83-77 at Crvena Zvezda to open the season, then 88-81 in Barcelona on Friday.<\/p>\n<p>The calendar gives Fenerbahce five days of rest and Zalgiris four, with Barcelona and Istanbul back to back. In a game that may come down to the last quarter, that extra day counts.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><\/th>\n<th>Fenerbahce<\/th>\n<th>Zalgiris Kaunas<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Record over four rounds<\/td>\n<td>3 wins, 1 loss<\/td>\n<td>wins at Crvena Zvezda and in Barcelona<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Points scored per game<\/td>\n<td>82.0<\/td>\n<td>85.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Top player (PIR)<\/td>\n<td>Wade Baldwin IV, 15.3<\/td>\n<td>Jonas Valanciunas, 20.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Last five meetings<\/td>\n<td>3 wins<\/td>\n<td>2 wins, one of them in Istanbul (92-82)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Zalgiris have already won in Istanbul, last season, and Tuesday is also a rematch of the 2025-26 playoff series Fenerbahce won, and a reunion: Tomas Masiulis, now the head coach in Kaunas, was Jasikevicius\u2019 assistant at Zalgiris, Barcelona and Istanbul.<\/p>\n<h2>Saben Lee is back, Williams-Goss still out<\/h2>\n<p>The Lithuanian backcourt was the worry; Monday\u2019s official injury report clarifies it:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Nigel Williams-Goss (hamstrings) is out for Tuesday, confirmed by the club: he stayed in Lithuania;<\/li>\n<li>Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu did not travel either, and has not been on a sheet since the season started;<\/li>\n<li>Saben Lee made his EuroLeague debut in round 4 after missing the first three: he is back, easing in day by day;<\/li>\n<li>\u00c1zuolas Tubelis rested a sore knee in the Lithuanian league this weekend and is expected available.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>On the Fenerbahce side, the club sent no medical report: no confirmed absence, and two question marks, Shane Larkin, who has not played a minute of EuroLeague this season, and Onuralp Bitim, left off the sheet in round 4.<\/p>\n<h2>At 2.00, the -7.5 is a coin flip<\/h2>\n<p>The straight win pays nothing: 1.33 with Betano on Monday, three wins in four for Fenerbahce, already shortened from the 1.363 opening price. The reference total stays at 162.5 points. On the spread, the -7.5 still trades at 2.00 with 888Sport: one chance in two that the Turks win by eight points or more, overtime included.<\/p>\n<h2>Fenerbahce -7.5, half a unit<\/h2>\n<p>I make this bet 52%; the market says 50%. The edge is thin, and the stake follows it: 0.5 units, $50, for a $50 profit if Fenerbahce win by eight or more. Monday\u2019s report changed the picture: I had both Lithuanian guards down as out, only one is missing, and Saben Lee has already played. I keep the bet, with my conviction a notch lower: Zalgiris have a first ball handler again, and a game settled by half-time, starters rotating through the fourth quarter, would shrink the margin. To size a stake against an edge this small, the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">Kelly calculator<\/a> does the maths; my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a> shows both outcomes. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>The third quarter, 28-13, settled it<\/h2>\n<p>99-80. At half-time the bet was still live: 50-43, seven points up, and the -7.5 asked for eight. The third quarter answered: 28-13, the lead out to 22, 78-56 before the fourth. Zalgiris won two of the four quarters, the second 29-23 and the last 24-21, and lost by nineteen.<\/p>\n<p>Fenerbahce scored 99, seventeen above their average across the first four rounds: Shields 17, Key 15, Clyburn 14. Carsen Edwards scored 20 for Zalgiris and Jonas Valanciunas took 10 rebounds. Saben Lee&#8217;s return, the one that cost me a notch of conviction on Monday, changed nothing.<\/p>\n<p>The bet has landed: half a unit on Fenerbahce -7.5 at 2.00 with 888Sport, $50 net. I made this outcome 52 percent, the market 50: the final margin of nineteen leaves eleven points spare over the eight required.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fenerbahce beat Zalgiris Kaunas 99-80 and covered the -7.5: my bet at 2.00 with 888Sport has landed, $50 net, and the third quarter settled it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":8255,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Saben Lee is back and Williams-Goss stays out: my Fenerbahce -7.5 prediction stays at 2.00 with 888Sport, with analysis and a half-unit stake.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Fenerbahce","ba_away_name":"Zalgiris Kaunas","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-13 17:45:00","ba_venue":"Ulker Spor ve Etkinlik Salonu","ba_match_key":"api-sports:basketball:508622","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[25,96],"class_list":["post-7656","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-basketball-en","ba_sport-euroleague-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Zalgiris won in Barcelona; 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