{"id":8676,"date":"2026-10-14T23:53:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T21:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/strasbourg-stripped-bare-up-front-psg-at-1-46-i-play-the-goal-count\/"},"modified":"2026-10-17T20:12:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-17T18:12:37","slug":"strasbourg-paris-saint-germain-prediction-2026-10-17","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/football\/ligue-1\/strasbourg-paris-saint-germain-prediction-2026-10-17\/","title":{"rendered":"Strasbourg stripped bare up front, PSG at 1.45: I play the goal count"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The official line-ups have answered the question running around Strasbourg: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lalsace.fr\/sport\/rcsa-racing-club-strasbourg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the local Alsatian press<\/a> had Doukour&#233; and Godo close to a return, and neither of them starts. On Saturday the Racing host PSG at the Meinau, three days after the Parisian 4-2 at Manchester. At 1.47 the market has already settled the winner; my search is elsewhere: how many goals this match will produce.<\/p>\n<h2>A Racing side out of solutions up front<\/h2>\n<p>Eleventh on seven points, one point above the relegation play-off place, Strasbourg come out of back-to-back defeats, at Nice (1-2) and at Paris FC (1-2). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.topmercato.com\/2146081-strasbourg-ce-nest-pas-une-excuse-le-rcsa-plombe-par-son-mercato-dete-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Oliveira refuses to hide behind the youth<\/a> of the youngest squad in Ligue 1, with its five Chelsea signings: the fact remains that the attack is flat. One goal per match over the last three outings, and the team sheet confirms it: Panichelli (knee) looks towards December, Nanasi stays out, Godo and Doukour&#233; do not start; Oliveira sets up in a 4-3-3 with Bald&#233;, Harder and Reyna up front.<\/p>\n<h2>Paris won at Manchester, and rotate<\/h2>\n<p>Sixth on eleven points, PSG <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.co.uk\/football\/match\/_\/gameId\/401915407\/paris-saint-germain-manchester-city\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">won 4-2 at Manchester<\/a> on Wednesday, after a 3-1 against Le Mans in which the team was already heavily rotated. Demb&#233;l&#233; and Nuno Mendes, <a href=\"https:\/\/frenchfootballweekly.com\/2026\/10\/10\/psg-the-group-to-challenge-le-mans-with-four-absent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rested against Le Mans<\/a> to prepare the European trip, do not start either: Safonov takes the goal, with Ferran Torres, Kvaratskhelia and Akliouche in the eleven; Mayulu (groin) and Longoni are out. Luis Enrique keeps repeating he wants to climb the table: rotation will not mean easing off.<\/p>\n<p>The last five matches of each side:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>Opponent<\/th>\n<th>Competition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>11\/10<\/td>\n<td>Strasbourg<\/td>\n<td>Nice (A)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>19\/09<\/td>\n<td>Strasbourg<\/td>\n<td>Paris FC (A)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>12\/09<\/td>\n<td>Strasbourg<\/td>\n<td>Monaco (H)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>06\/09<\/td>\n<td>Strasbourg<\/td>\n<td>Troyes (A)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>29\/08<\/td>\n<td>Strasbourg<\/td>\n<td>Lens (H)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14\/10<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Manchester City (A)<\/td>\n<td>Champions League<\/td>\n<td>4-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10\/10<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Le Mans (H)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>3-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20\/09<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Marseille (A)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>13\/09<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Brest (A)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>09\/09<\/td>\n<td>PSG<\/td>\n<td>Slovan Bratislava (H)<\/td>\n<td>Champions League<\/td>\n<td>6-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>What decides the total<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Racing&#8217;s finishing: one goal per match over the last three outings, and nothing on the team sheet to turn it around.<\/li>\n<li>Parisian rotation: three days after Manchester, Luis Enrique has rotated as heavily as against Le Mans.<\/li>\n<li>History: both teams have scored in 78 % of the eighteen meetings, and the 3-3 of October 2025 is a reminder that the Meinau can heat up.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The match I picture: PSG have the ball, a young Strasbourg block drops back and stays tight, and chances thin out because Racing have nobody left to convert them. Under 3.5 goals lives off that attacking poverty, not off a defensive feat.<\/p>\n<h2>The price of the match and of the total<\/h2>\n<p>PSG trade at 1.47 on Saturday, hours before kick-off: roughly two chances in three for the market. The main total is still set at 3.5 goals: over is 1.93 with Bet365, under 1.95 with Betway, against 2.00 at the opening. The market is drifting towards the under.<\/p>\n<h2>My bet: under 3.5 goals at 2.00<\/h2>\n<p>I take under 3.5 goals in regular time at 2.00 with Bet365. Zero, one, two or three goals: $25 on top of a $25 stake; four goals or more: $25 lost. An outright PSG win would pay only 1.47, too short for a team three days off a European trip: I prefer the total. The official line-ups point the same way. Once blended with the market&#8217;s probability, my edge disappears: 0.25 units, the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">minimum stake<\/a>, and this <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">prediction is in the public record<\/a>. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.<\/p>\n<h2>One goal too many, off the Paris bench<\/h2>\n<p>Strasbourg went down 1-3 at the Meinau: Reyna opened on 17 minutes and Racing led for an hour against a reshuffled PSG still searching for a scorer. Zabarnyi levelled on 77 from a Demb&#233;l&#233; pass, Demb&#233;l&#233; himself put Paris in front on 85, and Dou&#233;, another substitute, closed it at 90+2. PSG go provisionally top of Ligue 1, level with Monaco on 14 points ahead of Sunday&#8217;s trip to Lorient; Strasbourg stay eleventh on seven points, a third straight defeat. The full account is at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.franceinfo.fr\/sports\/foot\/ligue-1\/a-nouveau-sauve-par-ses-remplacants-le-psg-renverse-strasbourg-et-prend-provisoirement-les-commandes-de-la-ligue-1_8241889.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">franceinfo<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>My bet lived to the end of regular time: three goals at the 90th minute, still alive, and the fourth, in stoppage time, took it down. The Strasbourg half of my read held: one goal for Racing, nothing added in the hour they led. All three PSG goals went through substitutes, from Demb&#233;l&#233;&#8217;s pass for Zabarnyi to Dou&#233;&#8217;s finish: the bench did what the reshuffled eleven could not manage on its own.<\/p>\n<p>The pick is lost: under 3.5 goals at 2.00 with Bet365, the minimum $25 stake gone. By kick-off the under was already down to 1.95. A $25 loss on the public record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PSG came from behind to win 1-3 at the Meinau and go provisionally top of Ligue 1: my under 3.5 goals at 2.00 with Bet365 is lost, $25 to the public record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9728,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Strasbourg vs PSG prediction (17 Oct): Racing without Godo and Doukour\u00e9, a rotated PSG after Manchester. Under 3.5 goals at 2.00 with Bet365.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Strasbourg","ba_away_name":"Paris Saint-Germain","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-17 15:15:00","ba_venue":"Stade de la Meinau","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1552790","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[20,51],"class_list":["post-8676","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football-en","ba_sport-ligue-1-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strasbourg stripped bare up front, PSG at 1.45: I play the goal count &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Strasbourg vs PSG prediction (17 Oct): Racing without Godo and Doukour\u00e9, a rotated PSG after Manchester. 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