{"id":8767,"date":"2026-10-15T11:41:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T09:41:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/crvena-zvezda-v-paris-the-1-35-favourite-plays-without-its-big-men\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T23:12:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T21:12:48","slug":"crvena-zvezda-paris-prediction-2026-10-16","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/crvena-zvezda-paris-prediction-2026-10-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Crvena Zvezda v Paris: the 1.37 favourite plays without its big men"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On Friday in the Belgrade Arena, Crvena Zvezda are priced at 1.37, Paris at 3.60. The detail that catches my eye sits in the favourite&#8217;s frontcourt: Motley (groin) is out, Izundu (ankle) is uncertain, and the bet I read is not in the winner, it is in the margin.<\/p>\n<h2>Three straight wins, without the big men<\/h2>\n<p>Zvezda&#8217;s season started badly, two opening defeats, before the turnaround: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aba-liga.com\/news\/55193\/el-crvena-zvezda-meridianbet-grab-first-euroleague-win-of-the-season\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">their first EuroLeague win against Efes<\/a> (77-72, Carter decisive, Moneke 18 points, Nwora 12), then 77-58 in Dubai. On Saturday the ABA league followed: 101-91 against Buducnost, at the cost of Ebuka Izundu&#8217;s ankle, <a href=\"https:\/\/srpske.rs\/en\/news\/sport\/2026\/10\/11\/red-star-beat-buducnost-101-91-izundu-injured\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">injured in the second quarter<\/a> and by then the main centre since Motley went down. On Tuesday the third straight EuroLeague win landed at ASVEL, 84-82, 18 points from Moneke, 19 from Gach. The centre rotation is still broken at both ends.<\/p>\n<p>The injury list, <a href=\"https:\/\/basketnews.com\/news-212393-euroleague-injury-report-updated.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">updated on 14 October<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Motley, groin: out at least until round 8;<\/li>\n<li>Ebuka Izundu, ankle: uncertain, he did not play on Tuesday;<\/li>\n<li>Djurisic, Davidovac and Baldwin: <a href=\"https:\/\/sportal.blic.rs\/prica\/crvena-zvezda-motli-povreda-evroliga-2026100311324599557\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">back in five-on-five, says the club<\/a>, the doubt is lifted;<\/li>\n<li>Miljenovic, ankle, and Medarevic: still uncertain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Coach Navarro&#8217;s answer fits one formula: small ball, Moneke and Ojeleye in the five, with two stated keys, rebounds and pace. One reservation: the double week, the trip back from Dubai and then Tuesday&#8217;s game at ASVEL, left traces of fatigue.<\/p>\n<h2>Paris are weakened but keep their finish<\/h2>\n<p>Paris lost 96-98 against ASVEL at Halle Georges Carpentier after a big win against Kaunas, and in the domestic league Hifi stole a game at the buzzer in Le Mans. Since then it has not picked up: another defeat, on Wednesday, against Virtus at the Carpentier, and a record of one win and four defeats in the EuroLeague. In the last documented meeting between the two clubs, Paris beat Zvezda 102-92 in late December at the Carpentier. This trip to Belgrade comes without Derek Willis (ankle, out for several weeks); Lamar Stevens is announced available (finger); Ntilikina and Maozinha remain uncertain; and Serbian media report Nadir Hifi hurt in his left ankle, on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sd.rs\/sport\/kosarka\/pred-dolazak-u-beograd-povredio-se-nadir-hifi-2026-10-12\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a single source<\/a> I cannot cross-check: his availability is unknown. I am not basing my bet on his status.<\/p>\n<h2>The market is tightening around Paris<\/h2>\n<p>Paris&#8217;s odds have gone from 4.27 at the opening to 3.60 while Zvezda drifted from 1.35 to 1.37; by Thursday afternoon&#8217;s reading the main line has moved to -7, the total to 172. An outsider shortened by the market while the context leans towards the favourite is information: something has moved since the opening, probably the local frontcourt injuries.<\/p>\n<h2>My bet: Paris +9.5<\/h2>\n<p>I take Paris +9.5 at 1.71 with Unibet, odds taken this Thursday. The market gives this bet 57%; I make it 60%. Three points of difference do not pay a full stake: it drops to the minimum, 0.25 units ($25). I say it plainly, the market has read this game well, I am betting small (18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose). To check that calculation yourself, the <a href=\"\/en\/tools\/kelly-calculator\/\">staking calculator<\/a> starts from a probability and a price.<\/p>\n<p>The outcomes, plainly: Paris win or lose by nine points or fewer, the bet wins (+$17.75); they lose by ten or more, the bet loses (-$25). Overtime included.<\/p>\n<p>Why the 9.5 line rather than the main one: two extra points of cushion, at 1.71 when taken, the short line pricing 1.92 by Thursday. Two points that cover the small-ball scenario, a pace game where the margin settles inside the bracket. Without big men on the boards, I struggle to see Zvezda building a double-digit lead, even at home; the mirror risk exists, a small-ball five whose threes fall can also win by a wide margin. The minimum stake says so. The result will go on my <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/record\/\">public record<\/a>, as always.<\/p>\n<h2>Zvezda win by nine; the line wanted nine and a half<\/h2>\n<p>Crvena Zvezda won 90-81 at the Belgrade Arena, the small-ball script I described: without big men the pace stayed high and the gap never opened. Nine points of margin in the end, not one more. Zvezda climb to 4-2 in the EuroLeague, a fourth straight win; Paris drop to 1-5.<\/p>\n<p>The pick wins by half a point: Paris +9.5 at 1.71 with Unibet returns $17.75 on the $25 stake. I wrote it before tip-off, the market had this game right; the minimum stake was the right measure of so thin an edge. The win goes to the record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crvena Zvezda beat Paris 90-81: nine points of margin, the line wanted nine and a half. My Paris +9.5 at 1.71 wins by half a point, +$17.75.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9409,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Zvezda are 1.37 favourites despite losing their big men; Paris travel weakened but keep their nerve. My prediction: Paris +9.5 at 1.71 with Unibet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Crvena Zvezda","ba_away_name":"Paris Basketball","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-16 18:00:00","ba_venue":"Beogradska arena","ba_match_key":"api-sports:basketball:508638","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[25,96],"class_list":["post-8767","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-basketball-en","ba_sport-euroleague-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crvena Zvezda v Paris: the 1.37 favourite plays without its big men &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Zvezda are 1.37 favourites despite losing their big men; Paris travel weakened but keep their nerve. My prediction: Paris +9.5 at 1.71 with Unibet.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/crvena-zvezda-paris-prediction-2026-10-16\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crvena Zvezda v Paris: the 1.37 favourite plays without its big men &#183; Bankroll Atlas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Zvezda are 1.37 favourites despite losing their big men; Paris travel weakened but keep their nerve. 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For six years she has analysed rotations, pace and individual match-ups to prepare her predictions. Her favourite courts are the NBA and the EuroLeague.\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/en\\\/authors\\\/sarah-delcourt\\\/\",\"knowsAbout\":[\"Basketball\",\"NBA and EuroLeague\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Crvena Zvezda v Paris: the 1.37 favourite plays without its big men &#183; Bankroll Atlas","description":"Zvezda are 1.37 favourites despite losing their big men; Paris travel weakened but keep their nerve. 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My prediction: Paris +9.5 at 1.71 with Unibet.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/crvena-zvezda-paris-prediction-2026-10-16\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/crvena-zvezda-paris-prediction-2026-10-16\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/crvena-zvezda-paris-prediction-2026-10-16\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-crvena-zvezda-paris-basketball-en-8e1c7963.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/carte-crvena-zvezda-paris-basketball-en-8e1c7963.webp","width":1200,"height":675,"caption":"Crvena Zvezda \u2013 Paris Basketball \u00b7 EuroLeague \u00b7 90-81"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/basketball\/euroleague\/crvena-zvezda-paris-prediction-2026-10-16\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Matchs","item":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/matches\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Crvena Zvezda v Paris: the 1.37 favourite plays without its big men"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","name":"Bankroll Atlas","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#organization","name":"Bankroll Atlas","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Bankroll Atlas"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/a52ee5edc7737ea4704a1cebf10394c8","name":"Sarah Delcourt","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/73d0e55235c16090e214b35415fe3b6cccc6e978e4e350604d78fb3042c591d9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/73d0e55235c16090e214b35415fe3b6cccc6e978e4e350604d78fb3042c591d9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/73d0e55235c16090e214b35415fe3b6cccc6e978e4e350604d78fb3042c591d9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Sarah Delcourt"},"description":"A former point guard in a regional league, Sarah never lost her taste for reading the game and its numbers. 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