{"id":349,"date":"2026-09-26T14:27:53","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:27:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/implied-probability-calculator\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T14:46:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:46:02","slug":"implied-probability-calculator","status":"publish","type":"ba_tool","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/tools\/implied-probability-calculator\/","title":{"rendered":"Implied probability and margin calculator"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What this calculator does<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Decimal odds are a price. Their inverse gives the probability the bookmaker assigns to the outcome. Add those probabilities across every outcome in a market and the total goes above 100%. That excess is the margin: the price you pay to bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The calculator does the maths for you, strips the margin out and gives the <em>fair odds<\/em> of each outcome, the price you would see with no commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to use it<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list ba-steps\">\n<li><strong>Choose the format.<\/strong> Decimal (1.90), fractional (10\/11) or American (\u2212110).<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Enter every outcome.<\/strong> Two prices for a market without a draw (tennis, over\/under), three for a 1X2.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Read the result.<\/strong> The margin appears at the top, then the implied probability, the no-margin probability and the fair odds of each outcome.<\/li>\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The formula<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Implied probability = 1 \/ odds.<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Margin = sum of implied probabilities \u2212 100%.<\/li>\n\n\n<li>No-margin probability = implied probability \/ sum of probabilities.<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Fair odds = 1 \/ no-margin probability.<\/li>\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Worked example<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tennis match is priced at 1.90 for each player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Player<\/th><th>Odds<\/th><th>Implied probability<\/th><th>No margin<\/th><th>Fair odds<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Player 1<\/td><td>1.90<\/td><td>52.63%<\/td><td>50%<\/td><td>2.00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Player 2<\/td><td>1.90<\/td><td>52.63%<\/td><td>50%<\/td><td>2.00<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The total is 105.26%, a margin of 5.26%. Without commission, each player would be priced at 2.00: that gap is what the bookmaker keeps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Limits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The calculator spreads the margin in proportion to each outcome. In practice, bookmakers often load more margin onto outsiders than favourites, so the fair price is an estimate, not the truth. It is still the best basis for comparing two bookmakers or judging whether a price is worth taking.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Convert odds into probabilities, measure the bookmaker\u2019s margin and find the fair price of each outcome.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":1,"template":"","meta":{"ba_tool_widget":"implied","ba_tool_family":"odds","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-349","ba_tool","type-ba_tool","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Implied Probability &amp; Bookmaker Margin Calculator<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Turn odds into implied probabilities, measure the bookmaker margin (overround) and get the fair odds without it. Match result, two-way and totals. 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