{"id":359,"date":"2026-09-26T14:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/variance-simulator\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T14:46:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:46:04","slug":"variance-simulator","status":"publish","type":"ba_tool","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/en\/tools\/variance-simulator\/","title":{"rendered":"Variance simulator"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What this simulator does<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even with a real edge, a run of bets can go badly for a long time. The simulator plays hundreds of runs with your settings and shows what luck can do to your bankroll: the range of outcomes, the temporary losses and the risk of losing everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to use it<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list ba-steps\">\n<li><strong>Describe your typical bets.<\/strong> Average odds and estimated probability of winning.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Set the bankroll and the stake in units.<\/strong> Everything is expressed in units, as in our records.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Choose the length.<\/strong> The number of bets per run and the number of runs simulated.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Run it again.<\/strong> Each simulation draws new random results.<\/li>\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What the results show<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Risk of ruin<\/strong>: the share of runs in which the bankroll can no longer cover a stake.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Median final bankroll<\/strong>: half the runs finish above it, half below.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Median drawdown<\/strong>: the largest drop from a peak in a typical run.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>5th\u201395th percentile interval<\/strong>: the range in which 90% of runs finish.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Chart<\/strong>: 40 random runs, the median in green, losing runs in red.<\/li>\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Worked example<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Odds of 2.00, a 52% chance of winning, a 100 u bankroll, 1 u per bet, 500 bets. The expected value is 500 \u00d7 (2.00 \u00d7 0.52 \u2212 1) = +20 u, so 120 u on average at the end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the standard deviation over 500 bets is about 22 u. Around 90% of runs therefore finish between +20 \u2212 37 u and +20 + 37 u: a meaningful share lose money despite a real edge. That is exactly what the simulator makes visible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Limits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The model assumes a fixed probability, independent bets and a constant stake. Reality is messier: your estimate can be wrong and odds move. This is a simulation, not a forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Simulate hundreds of betting runs to see what luck can do to your bankroll: drawdown, risk of ruin, range of results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":3,"template":"","meta":{"ba_tool_widget":"variance","ba_tool_family":"risk","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-359","ba_tool","type-ba_tool","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Betting Variance Simulator: Losing Streaks &amp; Drawdown<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Simulate thousands of seasons to see the variance of a strategy: losing streaks, maximum drawdown and risk of ruin for your odds, hit rate and stake.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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