{"id":355,"date":"2026-09-26T14:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/calculadora-kelly\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T14:46:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:46:03","slug":"calculadora-kelly","status":"publish","type":"ba_tool","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/es\/herramientas\/calculadora-kelly\/","title":{"rendered":"Calculadora de Kelly y apuesta en unidades"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Para qu\u00e9 sirve esta calculadora<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El criterio de Kelly indica qu\u00e9 parte del bankroll apostar para hacerlo crecer lo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido posible a largo plazo, siempre que tu estimaci\u00f3n de probabilidad sea correcta. Pone una cifra a una intuici\u00f3n: cuanto mayor es la ventaja, mayor puede ser la apuesta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">C\u00f3mo usarla<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list ba-steps\">\n<li><strong>Introduce la cuota.<\/strong> En el formato que prefieras.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Da tu estimaci\u00f3n.<\/strong> La probabilidad, en porcentaje, que atribuyes al resultado.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Indica tu bankroll y tu unidad.<\/strong> Para obtener la apuesta en importe y en unidades.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Elige una fracci\u00f3n.<\/strong> \u00bc de Kelly por defecto, el ajuste m\u00e1s prudente.<\/li>\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La f\u00f3rmula<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fracci\u00f3n de Kelly = (cuota \u00d7 probabilidad \u2212 1) \/ (cuota \u2212 1).<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Apuesta = bankroll \u00d7 fracci\u00f3n de Kelly \u00d7 fracci\u00f3n elegida.<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Apuesta en unidades = apuesta \/ valor de la unidad.<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Ventaja estimada = cuota \u00d7 probabilidad \u2212 1; umbral de rentabilidad = 1 \/ cuota.<\/li>\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ejemplo con cifras<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cuota de 2,00, probabilidad estimada del 55 %, bankroll de 1.000, unidad de 10, \u00bc de Kelly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>Paso<\/th><th>C\u00e1lculo<\/th><th>Resultado<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ventaja estimada<\/td><td>2,00 \u00d7 0,55 \u2212 1<\/td><td>+10 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kelly completo<\/td><td>(2,00 \u00d7 0,55 \u2212 1) \/ (2,00 \u2212 1)<\/td><td>10 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00bc de Kelly<\/td><td>10 % \u00d7 0,25<\/td><td>2,5 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Apuesta<\/td><td>1.000 \u00d7 2,5 %<\/td><td>25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>En unidades<\/td><td>25 \/ 10<\/td><td>2,5 u<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Por qu\u00e9 una fracci\u00f3n de Kelly<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Kelly completo supone una estimaci\u00f3n exacta. Basta con sobrestimar una probabilidad unos pocos puntos para apostar demasiado. Apostar \u00bc o \u00bd de Kelly reduce mucho las oscilaciones del bankroll a cambio de un crecimiento apenas menor: es el compromiso que eligen la mayor\u00eda de los apostadores met\u00f3dicos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si tu estimaci\u00f3n no supera el umbral de rentabilidad, la apuesta recomendada es cero. La calculadora no busca una apuesta donde no hay ventaja.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Los l\u00edmites<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El resultado vale lo que vale tu estimaci\u00f3n. Con varias apuestas jugadas a la vez, o relacionadas entre s\u00ed, la f\u00f3rmula simple sobrestima la apuesta: reduce la fracci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dimensiona tu apuesta a partir de la cuota, tu estimaci\u00f3n de probabilidad y tu bankroll, con una fracci\u00f3n de Kelly prudente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":2,"template":"","meta":{"ba_tool_widget":"kelly","ba_tool_family":"stake","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-355","ba_tool","type-ba_tool","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Calculadora del criterio de Kelly: stake \u00f3ptimo \u00b7 Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Calcula el stake \u00f3ptimo con el criterio de Kelly: probabilidad estimada, cuota, fracci\u00f3n de Kelly y apuesta en unidades de tu bankroll. 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