{"id":10298,"date":"2026-10-19T20:36:51","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T18:36:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/stade-toulousain-usa-perpignan-trente-et-un-deplacements-sans-gagner-vingt-quatre-points-et-demi-a-tenir\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T19:10:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T17:10:46","slug":"stade-toulousain-usa-perpignan-pronostic-2026-10-24","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/stade-toulousain-usa-perpignan-pronostic-2026-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Stade Toulousain &#8211; USA Perpignan : trente-et-un d\u00e9placements sans gagner, vingt-quatre points et demi \u00e0 tenir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le leader du Top 14 re\u00e7oit le neuvi\u00e8me, et le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 rendu son verdict : 1,03 pour Toulouse, 14 pour l&#8217;USAP. Samedi \u00e0 Ernest-Wallon, tout se joue sur l&#8217;\u00e9cart, et il tient en une ligne : Perpignan +24,5, \u00e0 1,83 chez 1xbet. De mon banc de demi de m\u00eal\u00e9e, ce match se lit par l&#8217;infirmerie toulousaine et par les malaises catalans loin d&#8217;Aim\u00e9-Giral.<\/p>\n<h2>Toulouse gagne, mais sort de deux soir\u00e9es \u00e0 l&#8217;usure<\/h2>\n<p>Les chiffres du <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/classement\/2026-2027\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leader<\/a> parlent seuls : 24 points apr\u00e8s six journ\u00e9es, une seule d\u00e9faite, 30-27 \u00e0 La Rochelle d\u00e8s la premi\u00e8re, un bonus d\u00e9croch\u00e9 contre Bayonne (45-34). Dimanche, la Champions Cup a repris avec un <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stadetoulousain.fr\/match\/101504-stade-toulousainexeter-chiefs-j1-icc-saison-2627\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">43-40 contre Exeter<\/a> : sept essais toulousains, six anglais, un match ouvert jusqu&#8217;au bout. Gagner comme \u00e7a use un effectif.<\/p>\n<h2>L&#8217;infirmerie d&#8217;Ernest-Wallon est pleine<\/h2>\n<p>Elle l&#8217;est depuis septembre : <a href=\"https:\/\/lopinion.com\/articles\/actualite\/35652_stade-toulousain-20-blesses-incroyable-hecatombe-castres\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fin septembre, Poitrenaud comptait 22 bless\u00e9s<\/a>, et la presse toulousaine parle toujours de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quinzemondial.com\/stade-toulousain\/stade-toulousain-pres-dune-equipe-entiere-absente-face-a-lusap-829070\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pr\u00e8s d&#8217;un XV complet d&#8217;absents<\/a>. Cette semaine, la liste bouge dans les deux sens.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Meafou, op\u00e9r\u00e9 du genou, Verg\u00e9 au genou, Flament \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9paule, Willis au genou, Barassi \u00e0 la cheville, Delpy, Hawkes (Achille) et \u00c9p\u00e9e au pied, tous de longue dur\u00e9e ;<\/li>\n<li>Neti a re\u00e7u un rouge contre Exeter (plaquage haut, 16e minute) : au minimum absent samedi, la commission de discipline n&#8217;a pas tranch\u00e9 ;<\/li>\n<li>Chocobares (commotion) et Menoncello (\u00e9paule gauche) ne devraient pas \u00eatre disponibles face \u00e0 l&#8217;USAP ;<\/li>\n<li>Dans l&#8217;autre sens, Mauvaka est l\u00e0, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quinzemondial.com\/top-14\/stade-toulousain-des-absents-de-longue-date-pourraient-rejouer-face-a-lusap-829205\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kinghorn, Mallez et Castro-Ferreira postulent au retour<\/a>, Jelonch devrait encha\u00eener apr\u00e8s ses premi\u00e8res minutes contre Exeter, Roumat peut-\u00eatre ; Marchand (cuisse) reste aux soins.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Loin d&#8217;Aim\u00e9-Giral, l&#8217;USAP se disloque<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 Aim\u00e9-Giral, l&#8217;USAP est invaincue : Castres, Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles (38-25) et Vannes (21-12) y sont tomb\u00e9s. Dehors, rien : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lindependant.fr\/2026\/10\/03\/top-14-ca-a-meme-termine-par-une-roulade-dans-len-but-a-la-fin-comment-lusap-lourdement-battue-par-le-racing-92-a-encore-sombre-loin-de-ses-bases-13582140.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">31 d\u00e9placements de suite sans victoire<\/a>, et les derniers sont lourds, 50-13 \u00e0 Montpellier, 55-25 au Racing, huit essais encaiss\u00e9s \u00e0 Cr\u00e9teil. Labit l&#8217;a dit apr\u00e8s Cr\u00e9teil : son \u00e9quipe \u00ab connaissait la menace mais n&#8217;a pas trouv\u00e9 les r\u00e9ponses \u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Vendredi dernier, l&#8217;USAP s&#8217;est inclin\u00e9e \u00e0 Newport en Challenge Cup, en craquant en fin de match : hors Top 14, la s\u00e9rie de 31 y reste donc celle du championnat. Labit avait chang\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lindependant.fr\/2026\/10\/15\/rugby-challenge-cup-jake-mcintyre-et-posolo-tuilagi-de-retour-sevu-reece-en-13-andro-dvali-en-troisieme-ligne-la-composition-de-lusap-pour-le-13602182.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">quatorze joueurs sur quinze<\/a> au pays de Galles : les titulaires catalans arrivent frais \u00e0 Ernest-Wallon, Posolo Tuilagi (main) est r\u00e9tabli, et aucune blessure nouvelle n&#8217;est signal\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Je regarde le grattage : sans Meafou, Toulouse perd un de ses meilleurs gratteurs, et l&#8217;USAP joue direct, au sol, \u00e0 la p\u00e9naltouche. Un match qui se ferme finit souvent \u00e0 vingt points, pas \u00e0 trente.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>R\u00e9sultat<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>La Rochelle &#8211; Stade Toulousain<\/td>\n<td>Top 14, J1<\/td>\n<td>30-27, d\u00e9faite toulousaine<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Toulousain &#8211; Bayonne<\/td>\n<td>Top 14, J6<\/td>\n<td>45-34, victoire avec bonus<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Toulousain &#8211; Exeter<\/td>\n<td>Champions Cup, 18\/10<\/td>\n<td>43-40, victoire<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Montpellier &#8211; USA Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>Top 14<\/td>\n<td>50-13, d\u00e9faite catalane<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Racing 92 &#8211; USA Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>Top 14, 03\/10<\/td>\n<td>55-25, d\u00e9faite catalane<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>USA Perpignan &#8211; Vannes<\/td>\n<td>Top 14, J6<\/td>\n<td>21-12, victoire<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>USAP +24,5 \u00e0 1,83 : mise minimale<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 1,03, le vainqueur ne s&#8217;ach\u00e8te pas. Sur la ligne de 24,5 points, le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match : \u00e0 1,83, il donne \u00e0 l&#8217;USAP un peu plus d&#8217;une chance sur deux (51,1 %) de rester dans la marge. Je penche \u00e0 55 % : Toulouse sort de deux soir\u00e9es \u00e0 l&#8217;usure, son banc est d\u00e9cim\u00e9, et un leader g\u00e8re son calendrier europ\u00e9en. Mon \u00e9cart avec le march\u00e9 est trop mince pour appeler une vraie mise : 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $, pour un gain de 20,83 $.<\/p>\n<p>Perpignan gagne, fait nul ou perd de 24 points au plus : gagn\u00e9. Toulouse gagne par 25 points ou plus : perdu. La mise vient du <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a>, au minimum, et ce pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, pertes comprises. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>38-33 : l&#8217;USAP limite Toulouse \u00e0 cinq points, sa meilleure sortie de la saison<\/h2>\n<p>Toulouse gagne et l&#8217;USAP s&#8217;incline de cinq longueurs, avec 33 points marqu\u00e9s \u00e0 Ernest-Wallon : apr\u00e8s le 50-13 encaiss\u00e9 \u00e0 Montpellier et le 55-25 du Racing, c&#8217;est son meilleur d\u00e9placement de la saison. La s\u00e9rie loin d&#8217;Aim\u00e9-Giral passe \u00e0 trente-deux d\u00e9faites, mais le contenu a chang\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Mon Perpignan +24,5 n&#8217;a pas eu \u00e0 s&#8217;inqui\u00e9ter : cinq points d&#8217;\u00e9cart pour vingt-quatre et demi de marge, 20,83 $ gagn\u00e9s pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s, port\u00e9s au bilan public. Le march\u00e9 avait bien lu ce match : la ligne, prise \u00e0 1,83, a referm\u00e9 \u00e0 1,91, et mon l\u00e9ger avantage de lecture ne valait pas une vraie mise. La mise minimale paie petit, mais elle paie juste.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Toulouse gagne 38-33, l&#8217;USAP tient sa meilleure sortie \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur de la saison : mon Perpignan +24,5 pris \u00e0 1,83 passe, 20,83 $ nets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11895,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Leader du Top 14 contre une USAP \u00e0 31 d\u00e9faites de suite en d\u00e9placement : mon pronostic Top 14 sur le handicap USA Perpignan +24,5 \u00e0 1,83 chez 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Stade Toulousain","ba_away_name":"USA Perpignan","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-24 14:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54124","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"paqfluyz6uj","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"USA Perpignan +24,5","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":24.5,"odds":1.833,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":20.83,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-19 18:37:07","settled_at":"2026-10-24 16:30:08","probability":0.55,"p_market":0.5112,"p_used":0.5306,"edge":-0.0274,"market_margin":0.0769,"market_books":2,"closing_odds":1.909,"p_close":0.5,"clv":-0.0835,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-10298","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stade Toulousain &#8211; 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