{"id":10318,"date":"2026-10-19T20:38:35","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T18:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/aviron-bayonnais-lyon-invaincus-a-jean-dauger-deux-fois-dun-souffle\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T19:11:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T17:11:07","slug":"aviron-bayonnais-lyon-pronostic-2026-10-24","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/aviron-bayonnais-lyon-pronostic-2026-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Aviron Bayonnais – Lyon : invaincus \u00e0 Jean-Dauger, deux fois d’un souffle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le troisi\u00e8me ligne Rodrigo Bruni est forfait et l’ailier Mateo Carreras reste incertain : \u00e0 la veille du match, Sud Ouest annonce pourtant un XV bayonnais \u00ab type ou presque \u00bb<\/a>. Cinqui\u00e8me contre huiti\u00e8me \u00e0 Jean-Dauger<\/a>, devant un public qui n’a pas encore vu son \u00e9quipe perdre \u00e0 la maison. Le vainqueur se paie 1,26 chez Betano ; mon pari reste l’\u00e9cart : Lyon +10,5, \u00e0 1,83 chez 1xbet.<\/p>\n

Jean-Dauger tient, mais deux fois d’un souffle<\/h2>\n

Trois r\u00e9ceptions, trois victoires : Toulon (27-26), Clermont (46-24), Stade Fran\u00e7ais (35-32). Le Clermont est le seul grand \u00e9cart, les deux autres se sont jou\u00e9s \u00e0 un point et \u00e0 trois. Contre le LOU, l’Aviron a gagn\u00e9 quatre des cinq derniers Top 14<\/a>, dont un 49-38 ; le seul succ\u00e8s lyonnais date du 16 mai, 42-35 \u00e0 Gerland. Dehors, le profil se renverse : 70-28 \u00e0 Pau, puis 45-34 \u00e0 Toulouse au tour pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Solide \u00e0 Jean-Dauger, Bayonne gagne rarement large.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Match<\/th>\nComp\u00e9tition<\/th>\nR\u00e9sultat<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Aviron Bayonnais – Toulon<\/td>\nTop 14, J1<\/td>\n27-26, victoire<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aviron Bayonnais – Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\nTop 14, J5<\/td>\n35-32, victoire<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stade Toulousain – Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\nTop 14, J6<\/td>\n45-34, d\u00e9faite bayonnaise<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stade Fran\u00e7ais – Lyon<\/td>\nTop 14, J4<\/td>\n31-10, d\u00e9faite lyonnaise<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles – Lyon<\/td>\nTop 14, J5<\/td>\n51-28, d\u00e9faite lyonnaise<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lyon – La Rochelle<\/td>\nTop 14, J6<\/td>\n16-28, d\u00e9faite lyonnaise<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lyon – Sharks<\/td>\nChallenge Cup<\/td>\n33-40, d\u00e9faite lyonnaise<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Quatre revers, cinq essais : le LOU joue sous pression<\/h2>\n

Les deux \u00e9quipes ont ouvert leur coupe le week-end dernier, pas dans le m\u00eame \u00e9tat d’esprit. Bayonne a battu les Cheetahs 29-27<\/a> avec une \u00e9quipe remani\u00e9e. Le LOU a perdu 33-40 contre les Sharks<\/a> \u00e0 Gerland : men\u00e9 12-0, puis 14-19 \u00e0 la pause, il \u00e9tait revenu \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9 avant l’essai sud-africain dans le temps additionnel. Cinq essais marqu\u00e9s, six encaiss\u00e9s : du jeu, pas de r\u00e9sultat.<\/p>\n

Karim Ghezal le dit sans d\u00e9tour : son club est \u00ab entr\u00e9 en zone de turbulences \u00bb et aborde Jean-Dauger \u00ab sous pression \u00bb<\/a>. Quatre revers cons\u00e9cutifs, dont trois en Top 14, une huiti\u00e8me place \u00e0 14 points, trois derri\u00e8re son h\u00f4te : un succ\u00e8s lyonnais ferait passer le LOU devant l’Aviron au classement. Le LOU a jou\u00e9 sa coupe samedi, l’Aviron dimanche : une semaine pleine c\u00f4t\u00e9 lyonnais, deux matchs en six jours c\u00f4t\u00e9 basque.<\/p>\n

Sans Bruni, le XV type tient quand m\u00eame<\/h2>\n

Derri\u00e8re ce forfait et l’incertitude Carreras, la composition probable donn\u00e9e par Sud Ouest aligne Segonds \u00e0 l’ouverture, Coly \u00e0 la m\u00eal\u00e9e, et le talonneur Geraci titulaire face au club qu’il a quitt\u00e9 cet \u00e9t\u00e9, Tambwe en r\u00e9serve si Carreras renonce. Une seule source, trois jours avant le coup d’envoi, aucune composition officielle : la lecture reste prudente jusqu’\u00e0 la feuille de match.<\/p>\n

Lyon +10,5 \u00e0 1,83 : mise minimale, cotes immobiles<\/h2>\n

\u00c0 1,26 sur le vainqueur, je passe. Sur la ligne de 10,5 points, rien n’a boug\u00e9 depuis lundi : 1,85 chez Unibet sur Lyon +10,5, 1,90 de l’autre c\u00f4t\u00e9 chez 1xbet. Bruni, Carreras, la d\u00e9faite contre les Sharks : rien de tout \u00e7a n’a d\u00e9plac\u00e9 un prix. Je reste au m\u00eame endroit : je donne 57 % de chances au LOU de rester dans les dix points, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la cote en promet 51. Les deux bords sont cot\u00e9s serr\u00e9 et mon avantage fond au devis : mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $, pour un gain de 20,83 $.<\/p>\n

Lyon gagne, fait nul ou perd de dix points au plus : gagn\u00e9. Bayonne gagne par onze points ou plus : perdu. La mise sort du calculateur de Kelly<\/a>, au plancher, et le pari rejoint mon bilan public<\/a>, pertes comprises. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n

27-31 : Lyon renverse Jean-Dauger par Masi \u00e0 quatre minutes de la fin<\/h2>\n

Bayonne menait 21-12 \u00e0 la pause et Segonds portait l’\u00e9cart \u00e0 douze points \u00e0 la reprise, puis le LOU a tout renvers\u00e9 : Gabin Lorre et Baptiste Couilloud sont pass\u00e9s, Segonds rendait encore l’avantage aux Basques sur p\u00e9nalit\u00e9 \u00e0 la 75e, et Iosefo Masi aplatissait l’essai d\u00e9cisif une minute plus tard, servi par Jiuta Wainiqolo sur un d\u00e9gagement trop court. Cinq essais lyonnais, et trois d\u00e9faites de suite en championnat effac\u00e9es en une soir\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Mon Lyon +10,5 a gagn\u00e9 sans toucher la marge : le LOU s’impose, 20,83 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s, port\u00e9s au bilan public. Je cherchais un Lyon dans les dix points, il a gagn\u00e9 le match : le fonds de forme lyonnais que je lisais \u00e0 57 % s’est r\u00e9veill\u00e9 au bon moment. La ligne n’a quasiment pas boug\u00e9 de la semaine, la mise au plancher reste le prix juste de ce pari.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Men\u00e9 de douze points, le LOU renverse Bayonne 27-31 : mon Lyon +10,5 pris \u00e0 1,83 passe sans utiliser la marge, 20,83 $ nets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11900,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Bayonne perd Bruni pour recevoir un Lyon \u00e0 quatre revers : mon pronostic Top 14 reste sur Lyon +10,5 \u00e0 1,83 chez 1xbet, mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Aviron Bayonnais","ba_away_name":"Lyon","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-24 14:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54126","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"psj92bo8rej","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Lyon 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