{"id":10353,"date":"2026-10-19T20:52:02","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T18:52:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/racing-92-montpellier-au-mans-le-douzieme-recoit-le-septieme\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T19:11:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T17:11:46","slug":"racing-92-montpellier-pronostic-2026-10-24","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/racing-92-montpellier-pronostic-2026-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Racing 92 – Montpellier : au Mans, le douzi\u00e8me re\u00e7oit le septi\u00e8me"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le douzi\u00e8me du Top 14 re\u00e7oit le septi\u00e8me, mais pas chez lui : le Racing 92 accueille Montpellier au Mans, au Stade Marie-Marvingt. Au relev\u00e9 de la veille, le march\u00e9 a encore resserr\u00e9 vers le Racing : 1,83 chez Betway, 2,10 sur Montpellier. Je garde Montpellier, pris \u00e0 2,07 lundi chez Betano, mise minimale.<\/p>\n

Une r\u00e9ception sans maison<\/h2>\n

Douze ans apr\u00e8s un Racing-Ospreys 18-14 jou\u00e9 dans la m\u00eame ville, le club d\u00e9localise de nouveau au Mans<\/a>, billets d\u00e8s 12 \u20ac. Public sarthois, enceinte inconnue, aucune habitude de vestiaire : l’avantage du terrain, d\u00e9j\u00e0 mince pour une \u00e9quipe de la r\u00e9gion parisienne, fond presque \u00e0 z\u00e9ro. Avant la septi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e, le classement<\/a> donne le Racing 12e avec 10 points, Montpellier 7e avec 14 points et +41.<\/p>\n

Le Racing ne tient pas encore<\/h2>\n

La saison du Ciel et Blanc tient en un 64-5 conc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 Bordeaux d\u00e8s l’ouverture, un 31-48 \u00e0 la maison contre Lyon, puis un 55-25 contre l’USAP. Samedi, la Champions Cup a remis la t\u00eate sous l’eau : 33-25 \u00e0 Munster, z\u00e9ro point.<\/p>\n

Quatre d\u00e9faites en six journ\u00e9es, une de plus en Champions Cup :<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Adversaire<\/th>\nComp\u00e9tition<\/th>\nR\u00e9sultat<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles<\/td>\nTop 14, J1<\/td>\n64-5, d\u00e9faite<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lyon<\/td>\nTop 14, J2<\/td>\n31-48, d\u00e9faite<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USAP<\/td>\nTop 14, J5<\/td>\n55-25, victoire<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toulon<\/td>\nTop 14, J6<\/td>\n29-15, d\u00e9faite<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Munster<\/td>\nChampions Cup<\/td>\n33-25, d\u00e9faite<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

La premi\u00e8re ligne paie le prix le plus lourd : Gogichashvili et Tarrit manquent, Bamba s’est d\u00e9chir\u00e9 les ischio-jambiers \u00e0 Munster<\/a>, Hill est absent, et Kolingar, tomb\u00e9 en malaise le jour du match contre Perpignan, part pour de longs mois, comme Paul Costes apr\u00e8s son grave accident de la circulation. Collazo r\u00e9cup\u00e8re Spring et Tuisova, m\u00e9nag\u00e9s en Europe et attendus dans le XV. \u00ab On n’a plus d’excuses \u00bb : Maxime Baudonne r\u00e9sume le vestiaire<\/a> avant le Mans.<\/p>\n

Le MHR avance, l’infirmerie saigne<\/h2>\n

Montpellier, finaliste du dernier championnat, monte en puissance. Correction re\u00e7ue de Toulouse fin septembre, puis un 28-0 sur Toulon avec le bonus offensif, une d\u00e9faite \u00e0 Paris, et une victoire \u00e0 Bath<\/a> samedi en Champions Cup. Le MHR a pr\u00e9par\u00e9 ce rendez-vous comme un \u00e9v\u00e9nement \u00e0 part, \u00ab en mode 24 heures du Mans \u00bb, et vit d\u00e9j\u00e0 en d\u00e9localisation : sa pelouse d\u00e9grad\u00e9e, il re\u00e7oit \u00e0 la Mosson cette saison.<\/p>\n

La liste d’infirmerie s’est encore allong\u00e9e : Lenni Nouchi, forfait plusieurs semaines<\/a> apr\u00e8s la l\u00e9sion au quadriceps contract\u00e9e \u00e0 Bath, rejoint Japaridze, Haouas, Uelese, Erdocio, Chalureau, Gleeson, Audebert, Miotti, Cadot, Ngandebe, Delibes et Moustin. Price est laiss\u00e9 au repos, comme Verhaeghe. En septembre, Joan Caudullo refusait d\u00e9j\u00e0 un joker m\u00e9dical<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Le march\u00e9 serre vers le Racing<\/h2>\n

Le 1N2 dit l’\u00e9quilibre et bouge contre moi : ouvert \u00e0 1,93, le Racing est descendu \u00e0 1,83 ; Montpellier est pass\u00e9 de 1,95 \u00e0 2,10, au-dessus de la cote de mon devis. Le nul cote 20, le match garde presque 10 % de marge et deux maisons le cotent en entier. La casse h\u00e9raultaise semble d\u00e9j\u00e0 int\u00e9gr\u00e9e dans ces prix.<\/p>\n

Mon pari : Montpellier pris \u00e0 2,07, mise au plancher<\/h2>\n

Je donne 51 % \u00e0 Montpellier, nul exclu. Le fond reste montpelli\u00e9rain : septi\u00e8me avec +41 et deux succ\u00e8s de rang, dont Bath, face \u00e0 un douzi\u00e8me qui joue loin de chez lui. Mais le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9 les deux infirmeries, et la cote de mon devis, 2,07, vaut 2,10 aujourd’hui : l’avantage que je voyais fond au moment de le payer. Mise au plancher, 0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $. Montpellier gagne : 26,75 $. Le Racing gagne ou fait nul : perdu, les 25 $. Un rappel qui compte : en 1N2, un match nul perd la mise, il ne la rembourse pas.<\/p>\n

La mise vient du calculateur de Kelly<\/a>, et ce pari rejoint mon bilan public<\/a>, pertes comprises. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n

17-20 : le Racing plie encore, Montpellier confirme au Mans<\/h2>\n

Au Stade Marie-Marvingt, le douzi\u00e8me du championnat a encore c\u00e9d\u00e9, et Montpellier, septi\u00e8me avant la journ\u00e9e, a confirm\u00e9 son fond : 17-20, une victoire construite loin de chez lui, quelques jours apr\u00e8s le succ\u00e8s \u00e0 Bath. Le Racing comptait trois d\u00e9faites sur ses cinq derniers matchs avant celui-ci, il en ajoute une quatri\u00e8me : il court apr\u00e8s sa saison.<\/p>\n

Mon pari Montpellier, pris \u00e0 2,07 chez Betano, est gagn\u00e9 : 26,75 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s, port\u00e9s au bilan public. Le march\u00e9 avait fini par me rejoindre : la cote a ferm\u00e9 \u00e0 1,79, loin de ma prise de lundi, et la lecture \u00e0 51 % que je qualifiais de prudente para\u00eet maintenant large. La mise au plancher \u00e9tait le prix d’un pari sans filet, en 1N2 le nul perd la mise, et il paie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le Racing plie encore 17-20 au Mans : mon Montpellier pris \u00e0 2,07 chez Betano passe, 26,75 $ nets, la cote avait ferm\u00e9 \u00e0 1,79.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11910,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Racing 92 - Montpellier au Mans : malgr\u00e9 ses absents, le Racing passe \u00e0 1,83. 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