{"id":10699,"date":"2026-10-21T14:42:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T12:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/brest-nice-deux-defenses-decimees-un-leger-avantage-breton\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T23:15:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T21:15:36","slug":"brest-nice-pronostic-2026-10-23","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-1\/brest-nice-pronostic-2026-10-23\/","title":{"rendered":"Brest &#8211; Nice : deux d\u00e9fenses d\u00e9cim\u00e9es, un l\u00e9ger avantage breton"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cinq buts contre Angers, un nul arrach\u00e9 \u00e0 Lille : depuis deux semaines, le Stade Brestois joue devant. Nice, elle, revient de Lyon avec une d\u00e9faite 1-2 et le sentiment d&#8217;un match gagnable laiss\u00e9 filer. Vendredi au Francis-Le-Bl\u00e9, la huiti\u00e8me journ\u00e9e oppose le dixi\u00e8me (9 points) au treizi\u00e8me (8 points), avec la m\u00eame question des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s : comment tenir une d\u00e9fense quand l&#8217;infirmerie y a pris ses quartiers ?<\/p>\n<h2>Deux infirmeries qui se ressemblent<\/h2>\n<p>Les absents compteront autant que les titulaires. \u00c0 Brest d&#8217;abord :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Brendan Chardonnet (mollet) n&#8217;a pas rejou\u00e9 d&#8217;une seconde cette saison, et Julien Lachuer n&#8217;attend son retour <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foot-national.com\/actus\/on-ne-peut-aller-plus-vite-que-la-musique-absence-prolongee-a-brest-pour-brendan-chardonnet-toujours-blesse-958744\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">qu&#8217;apr\u00e8s la tr\u00eave de novembre<\/a> ;<\/li>\n<li>Rapha\u00ebl Le Guen, op\u00e9r\u00e9 d&#8217;une fracture du p\u00e9ron\u00e9, est absent jusqu&#8217;en 2027 ;<\/li>\n<li>Giovani Versini, touch\u00e9 au mollet avec les Espoirs d\u00e9but octobre, ne d\u00e9bute pas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Nice d\u00e9barque avec la m\u00eame valise : Laurent Abergel et Mo\u00efse Bombito manquent toujours, Antoine Mendy, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ogcnissa.com\/articles-18562-mendy-victime-d-une-rupture-des-ligaments-croises\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">victime d&#8217;une rupture des crois\u00e9s<\/a>, sera absent plusieurs mois. Morgan Sanson, op\u00e9r\u00e9 durant l&#8217;intersaison, manque de rythme ; Ali Abdi tra\u00eene sa g\u00eane au quadriceps et ne d\u00e9bute pas.<\/p>\n<p>Les compositions officielles sont tomb\u00e9es, et elles confirment le tableau : c\u00f4t\u00e9 brestois, Ajorque m\u00e8ne la ligne du 4-2-3-1, avec Mama Bald\u00e9 et Doumbia dans son dos ; c\u00f4t\u00e9 ni\u00e7ois, Wahi est en pointe du 3-4-2-1, Amoura et Hein un cran derri\u00e8re, Clauss et Nkounkou en pistons, et une d\u00e9fense \u00e0 trois recompos\u00e9e, o\u00f9 Seidu, Ndayishimiye et Abdelmonem h\u00e9ritent d&#8217;Ajorque. Deux d\u00e9fenses bricol\u00e9es, un match ouvert.<\/p>\n<h2>Ce que la forme dit, ce que l&#8217;histoire rappelle<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>\u00c9quipe<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>17\/10<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 Lille<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10\/10<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>Angers<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>5-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>03\/10<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>Monza<\/td>\n<td>Amical<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20\/09<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 Auxerre<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>13\/09<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>Paris SG<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>18\/10<\/td>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 Lyon<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>11\/10<\/td>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>Strasbourg<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20\/09<\/td>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>Lille<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>12\/09<\/td>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 Auxerre<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>05\/09<\/td>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>Le Mans<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>La dynamique est brestoise, les confrontations ne le sont pas : sur <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footmercato.net\/live\/3122314981163286615-brest-vs-nice\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vingt matchs<\/a>, Nice compte huit victoires, huit nuls et quatre d\u00e9faites, dont un 6-0 inflig\u00e9 \u00e0 Brest en mai 2025. Le Bl\u00e9 raconte autre chose : 4-1 pour Brest en septembre 2025, 2-2 en f\u00e9vrier dernier. Ce match se joue sur un fil.<\/p>\n<h2>2,31 : le march\u00e9 h\u00e9site<\/h2>\n<p>La cote est fig\u00e9e \u00e0 la veille du match : 2,31 chez 1xbet au relev\u00e9 de jeudi matin, un cheveu sous l&#8217;ouverture. Le nul reste \u00e0 3,60, la victoire ni\u00e7oise \u00e0 3,37, presque son prix d&#8217;ouverture. Le prix dit favori modeste, et il ne varie plus depuis le week-end : l&#8217;infirmerie brestoise est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans le compte. Difficile de le contredire : les deux \u00e9quipes marquent, les deux encaissent, et Chardonnet p\u00e8se c\u00f4t\u00e9 brestois autant que Bombito p\u00e8se c\u00f4t\u00e9 ni\u00e7ois.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Brest gagnant, en petite mise<\/h2>\n<p>Je donne 45 % \u00e0 Brest, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la cote en promet 43. L&#8217;\u00e9cart est l\u00e0, il est \u00e9troit : c&#8217;est la d\u00e9fense ni\u00e7oise, la plus touch\u00e9e, qui me fait pencher. Je prends la victoire du Stade Brestois \u00e0 2,31 chez 1xbet. Si Brest gagne, 25 $ mis\u00e9s rapportent 32,80 $ nets ; sur un nul ou une victoire de Nice, les 25 $ sont perdus.<\/p>\n<p>La mise est fix\u00e9e par le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de mise<\/a> : 0,25 unit\u00e9, le plancher. Le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match, je le suis \u00e0 petite voix. Ce pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>1-2 : Nice renverse le Bl\u00e9 et prend ses premiers points \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur<\/h2>\n<p>Ludovic Ajorque avait ouvert le match sur une boulette de Yehvann Diouf (15e), et la logique de forme tenait la soir\u00e9e. Nice a tout renvers\u00e9 : Sofiane Diop a fait basculer le match en toute fin, et dans le temps additionnel Diouf a repouss\u00e9 le penalty de l&#8217;\u00e9galisation de Kenny Lala, qui restait sur onze r\u00e9ussites d&#8217;affil\u00e9e. Premiers points du Gym loin de Nice, apr\u00e8s trois d\u00e9placements \u00e0 vide : le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footmercato.net\/a7630916798653710953-ligue-1-au-mental-logc-nice-renverse-brest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">r\u00e9cit complet<\/a> est chez Footmercato.<\/p>\n<p>Mon pari est perdu : la victoire du Stade Brestois \u00e0 2,31 chez 1xbet n&#8217;a pas eu lieu, les 25 $ de la mise minimale passent en pertes au bilan public. La cote l&#8217;avait senti avant moi : prise \u00e0 2,31, elle a ferm\u00e9 \u00e0 2,41, le march\u00e9 glissait vers Nice depuis une semaine. C&#8217;\u00e9tait la d\u00e9fense ni\u00e7oise la plus d\u00e9cim\u00e9e que je tenais pour condamn\u00e9e ; elle n&#8217;a pris qu&#8217;un but, et le mental ni\u00e7ois a fait le reste.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nice renverse le Bl\u00e9 1-2 et prend ses premiers points \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur : ma victoire du Stade Brestois \u00e0 2,31 chez 1xbet est perdue, 25 $ en pertes au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11641,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Brest - Nice (Ligue 1, 23\/10) : victoire de Brest \u00e0 2,31 chez 1xbet, mise minimale de 0,25 unit\u00e9. Mes raisons : deux d\u00e9fenses d\u00e9cim\u00e9es.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Stade Brestois 29","ba_away_name":"Nice","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-23 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stade Francis-Le-Bl\u00e9","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1552794","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"p9jalhh1zva","author_id":4,"market":"R\u00e9sultat du match (1N2)","selection":"Victoire du Stade Brestois 29","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"ml","selection_key":"home","line":null,"odds":2.312,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":32.8,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"lost","recorded_at":"2026-10-21 12:42:30","settled_at":"2026-10-23 20:45:04","probability":0.45,"p_market":0.4253,"p_used":0.4377,"edge":0.0118,"market_margin":0.0638,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":2.414,"p_close":0.406,"clv":-0.0613,"stake_rule":"min"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,50],"class_list":["post-10699","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-1"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brest &#8211; Nice : deux d\u00e9fenses d\u00e9cim\u00e9es, un l\u00e9ger avantage breton &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Brest - Nice (Ligue 1, 23\/10) : victoire de Brest \u00e0 2,31 chez 1xbet, mise minimale de 0,25 unit\u00e9. 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