{"id":10733,"date":"2026-10-21T14:44:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T12:44:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/la-rochelle-union-bordeaux-begles-la-dynamique-maritime-est-deja-dans-la-cote\/"},"modified":"2026-10-26T00:07:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-25T23:07:59","slug":"la-rochelle-bordeaux-begles-pronostic-2026-10-25","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-bordeaux-begles-pronostic-2026-10-25\/","title":{"rendered":"La Rochelle – Union Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles : la dynamique maritime est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans la cote"},"content":{"rendered":"

Samedi soir, le Stade Rochelais n’a laiss\u00e9 aucune marge aux Lions de Johannesburg (31-14). La veille, l’UBB s’\u00e9tait arrach\u00e9 un 36-36 spectaculaire \u00e0 Gloucester. Dimanche \u00e0 Marcel-Deflandre, les deux se retrouvent s\u00e9par\u00e9s par un point : l’Union 3e avec 19 points, le Stade Rochelais 4e avec 18, derri\u00e8re Toulouse (24) et Pau (22). \u00c0 la veille du match, les bless\u00e9s bordelais se comptent, les rochelais ne se nomment pas.<\/p>\n

Deux semaines d’Europe pour un point d’\u00e9cart<\/h2>\n

Le championnat a d\u00e9j\u00e0 puni les esprits dispers\u00e9s. Avant sa victoire \u00e0 Lyon (16-28), La Rochelle avait encaiss\u00e9 deux mandales : 39-17 \u00e0 Pau, puis 10-20 \u00e0 Deflandre contre le Racing. L’UBB a gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 Clermont (22-23) apr\u00e8s une d\u00e9faite \u00e0 Perpignan (38-25). Sorties d’Europe, les rotations de Ronan O’Gara et de Yannick Bru restent la premi\u00e8re affaire du dimanche, et la feuille de match de la LNR<\/a> n’affiche toujours aucune composition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Quand<\/th>\nMatch<\/th>\nComp\u00e9tition<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
17\/10<\/td>\nLa Rochelle – Lions<\/td>\nChampions Cup<\/td>\n31-14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16\/10<\/td>\nGloucester – UBB<\/td>\nChampions Cup<\/td>\n36-36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J6<\/td>\nLyon – La Rochelle<\/td>\nTop 14<\/td>\n16-28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J6<\/td>\nClermont – UBB<\/td>\nTop 14<\/td>\n22-23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J4<\/td>\nPerpignan – UBB<\/td>\nTop 14<\/td>\n38-25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

L’infirmerie bordelaise se pr\u00e9cise, la rochelaise reste muette<\/h2>\n

Le point effectif de l’UBB est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 la veille du d\u00e9part : Reti\u00e8re et Page-Relo sont forfaits<\/a>, Laharrague est rappel\u00e9 de son pr\u00eat \u00e0 B\u00e9ziers et Reus revient de commotion. Penaud a repris l’entra\u00eenement ; sa pr\u00e9sence dimanche reste \u00e0 confirmer, comme celle de Coleman.<\/p>\n

Matthieu Jalibert, lui, a rechut\u00e9 au quadriceps droit<\/a> apr\u00e8s la mise en place du 16 octobre, et l’IRM a confirm\u00e9 une l\u00e9sion au m\u00eame endroit qu’en septembre : la reprise n’est plus annonc\u00e9e avant d\u00e9but d\u00e9cembre<\/a>. Le talonneur Barlot, lui, file vers une nouvelle op\u00e9ration des cervicales.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4t\u00e9 rochelais, personne n’y voit clair : le dernier point officiel<\/a> comptait dix bless\u00e9s avant les Lions, le club n’a rien publi\u00e9 depuis, et la liste nominative du 2 octobre (Bourgarit, Danty, Skelton, Seuteni, entre autres) ne d\u00e9crit pas les absents de dimanche. Les compositions probables de Dicodusport<\/a> placent Bourgarit sur le banc rochelais et Reus-Hutteau \u00e0 la charni\u00e8re girondine, Lucu en finisseur : rien d’officiel pour l’instant.<\/p>\n

1,38 : le march\u00e9 n’a pas l\u00e2ch\u00e9 La Rochelle<\/h2>\n

La victoire rochelaise est pass\u00e9e de 1,44 \u00e0 l’ouverture \u00e0 1,38 vendredi chez Betano ; le nul paie 20, la victoire girondine 3,64. Le march\u00e9 accompagne toujours la dynamique maritime.<\/p>\n

Mon pari : les Bordelais gardent le contact<\/h2>\n

Le pari est pris et ne bouge plus : Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles +7,5 \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, enregistr\u00e9 mercredi. L’UBB gagne, fait nul ou perd de un \u00e0 sept points : +22,50 $ nets pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s. La Rochelle gagne de huit points ou plus : les 25 $ partent. Je donne 55 % \u00e0 ce pari et le dis franchement : une fois m\u00eal\u00e9e \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9, ma probabilit\u00e9 ne laisse aucun avantage net. La mise reste au plancher, 0,25 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Pourquoi l’\u00e9cart plut\u00f4t que la victoire bordelaise, vendue \u00e0 3,64 : les absences touchent les deux camps, mais le +7,5 couvre une d\u00e9faite de sept points d’une \u00e9quipe qui a tenu Gloucester et gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 Clermont. Deflandre reste Deflandre, et sans Jalibert, l’UBB jouera au pied ce qu’elle ne peut plus jouer \u00e0 la main : un match serr\u00e9, d\u00e9cid\u00e9 au fil des p\u00e9nalit\u00e9s et du banc. Pris mercredi \u00e0 1,90, le +7,5 s’affiche aujourd’hui \u00e0 1,83 : mon prix d’entr\u00e9e \u00e9tait le bon. \u00ab On ne sacrifiera jamais un match de Top 14 \u00bb, a tranch\u00e9 Yannick Bru<\/a>. La mise vient du calculateur de mise<\/a> ; ce pari rejoint mon bilan public<\/a>. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n

19-25 : Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles gagne \u00e0 Deflandre, mon pari suit<\/h2>\n

Le favori est tomb\u00e9 chez lui. L’UBB s’impose 19-25 \u00e0 Marcel-Deflandre, six points d’\u00e9cart, et mes sept points de marge ne sortent jamais du tiroir : le +7,5 \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 pli\u00e9 au coup de sifflet final.<\/p>\n

Je cherchais une \u00e9quipe bordelaise dans le coup jusqu’au bout ; elle est all\u00e9e chercher la victoire. Mon pari +7,5 \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet est gagnant : +22,50 $ sur la mise de 25 $, 0,25 unit\u00e9. La ligne a cl\u00f4tur\u00e9 \u00e0 1,84 : mon prix de mercredi tenait.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles gagne 19-25 \u00e0 Deflandre ; mon pari +7,5 \u00e0 1,90 gagne aussi et rapporte 22,50 $, sur mise minimale de 25 $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12396,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic La Rochelle - Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles (Top 14, 25\/10) : Union Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles +7,5 \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, mise minimale de 0,25 unit\u00e9.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Stade Rochelais","ba_away_name":"Union Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-25 20:05:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54122","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pqveuiszra9","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap (\u00e9cart de points)","selection":"Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles +7,5 points","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":7.5,"odds":1.9,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":22.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-21 12:44:58","settled_at":"2026-10-25 22:15:04","probability":0.55,"p_market":0.5,"p_used":0.525,"edge":-0.0025,"market_margin":0.0811,"market_books":3,"closing_odds":1.84,"p_close":0.5027,"clv":-0.0449,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-10733","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"\nLa Rochelle – Union Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles : la dynamique maritime est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans la cote · Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic La Rochelle - 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