{"id":11398,"date":"2026-10-23T11:35:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T09:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/a-173-vannes-favori-sans-victoire-je-garde-clermont-a-25\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T17:08:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T15:08:40","slug":"vannes-clermont-pronostic-2026-10-24","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/vannes-clermont-pronostic-2026-10-24\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c0 1,73, Vannes favori sans victoire : je garde Clermont \u00e0 +2,5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Six matchs, z\u00e9ro victoire, un point au classement. Vannes est dernier du Top 14 et le march\u00e9 en fait quand m\u00eame le favori samedi \u00e0 La Rabine : 1,73 chez Betway ce vendredi, contre 2,22 chez 1xbet pour un Clermont qui a gagn\u00e9 les deux derni\u00e8res confrontations. Quand un promu sans victoire part favori, je relis le match deux fois avant d&#8217;y toucher.<\/p>\n<h2>Un favori qui n&#8217;a encore rien gagn\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Les scores de Vannes n&#8217;ont rien d&#8217;une lanterne rouge classique. Cinq de ses six d\u00e9faites tiennent en moins de dix points. Le promu conc\u00e8de 56 p\u00e9nalit\u00e9s en six journ\u00e9es, la plus basse barre du championnat, r\u00e9ussit 88 % de ses lancers en touche et 89 % de ses plaquages individuels. C&#8217;est aussi l&#8217;\u00e9quipe qui joue le plus de rugby du championnat, environ 39 minutes de temps effectif par match. Spitzer l&#8217;a r\u00e9sum\u00e9 en conf\u00e9rence de presse : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asm-rugby.com\/actus\/2026-10-22-16-02-50-avis-de-tempete-sur-la-rabine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab il ne manquait qu&#8217;un essai par match \u00bb<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Les titulaires de la sixi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e contre Perpignan n&#8217;ont pas fait le d\u00e9placement europ\u00e9en chez les Harlequins : ils arrivent frais, devant leur public. Le capitaine Gorrissen demande <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quinzemondial.com\/top-14\/vannes-il-nous-manque-5-a-10-le-constat-lucide-de-gorrissen-avant-clermont-829231\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab 5 ou 10 % d&#8217;efforts en plus \u00bb<\/a>. Vu la semaine que traverse Clermont, il peut y croire.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont descend avec son infirmerie dans le pack<\/h2>\n<p>Trois d\u00e9faites de rang : 25 points d&#8217;\u00e9cart contre La Rochelle, un point contre l&#8217;UBB, 25 de nouveau face au Leinster en Champions Cup. Onzi\u00e8me au <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/classement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">classement de Top 14<\/a>, \u00e0 trois points du sixi\u00e8me, avec une infirmerie pleine d&#8217;avants. Urios s&#8217;en m\u00e9fie le premier : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/22\/top-14-classement-confiance-jeu-pourquoi-clermont-joue-une-grande-partie-de-sa-saison-a-vannes-13613373.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab il faut se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 une rencontre tr\u00e8s difficile \u00bb<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tolofua, Ratuva, Muarua et Veschambre indisponibles encore de nombreuses semaines, Sowakula aussi : toute l&#8217;infirmerie est dans le pack.<\/li>\n<li>Marcos Kremer a purg\u00e9 sa suspension et sera disponible \u00e0 Vannes.<\/li>\n<li>Rob Leota, engag\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asm-rugby.com\/actus\/2026-10-22-10-01-39-rob-leota-jusqu-au-31-janvier-2027\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">comme joueur suppl\u00e9mentaire jusqu&#8217;au 31 janvier<\/a>, n&#8217;a toujours pas sa qualification administrative.<\/li>\n<li>Vannes perd Sione Mafileo (pied), et le joker m\u00e9dical Toomaga-Allen ne sera pas qualifi\u00e9.<\/li>\n<li>La temp\u00eate Austin balaie la c\u00f4te bretonne la veille : bourrasques probables samedi \u00e0 La Rabine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Deux clubs jouent leur saison sur le m\u00eame match, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asm-rugby.com\/actus\/2026-10-21-17-30-19-pres-de-700-supporters-de-l-asm-a-vannes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pr\u00e8s de 700 supporters clermontois sont annonc\u00e9s<\/a> \u00e0 La Rabine, et le vent s&#8217;en m\u00ealera. \u00c7a sent le match d&#8217;\u00e9cart mince, et c&#8217;est exactement ce que je veux jouer.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont +2,5 \u00e0 1,85 : le pari du match serr\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Je ne cherche pas un vainqueur sec. Vannes n&#8217;a rien gagn\u00e9, Clermont n&#8217;encha\u00eene plus, et la premi\u00e8re victoire vannetaise a d\u00e9j\u00e0 son prix. Le handicap me permet de jouer un match serr\u00e9 sans d\u00e9signer qui l&#8217;emporte : Clermont +2,5 \u00e0 1,85 chez 1xbet ce vendredi.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari passe si Clermont gagne, fait nul ou s&#8217;incline de deux points ou moins ; pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s, le gain est de 21,25 $. Il tombe si Vannes s&#8217;impose de trois points ou plus. \u00c0 1,85, le march\u00e9 donne un peu plus d&#8217;une chance sur deux \u00e0 cette ligne ; je la vois \u00e0 57 %. Trois bookmakers seulement la cotent, et ils se servent large.<\/p>\n<p>La cote du vainqueur vannetais s&#8217;est encore resserr\u00e9e cette semaine, de 1,75 \u00e0 1,73 chez Betway. La ligne du handicap, elle, n&#8217;a pas boug\u00e9. Le march\u00e9 penche un peu plus vers Vannes ; rien ne d\u00e9mente ma lecture.<\/p>\n<p>Mise minimale : 0,25 unit\u00e9. Le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match ; je garde ma lecture, sans gonfler la mise. Pour r\u00e9gler les v\u00f4tres, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de mise en unit\u00e9s<\/a> fait le travail, et ce pari part au <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> tel quel. 18+, misez seulement ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>27-26 : Vannes renverse Clermont dans le money time<\/h2>\n<p>Clermont menait 23-6 \u00e0 la 46e minute, deux essais de Jauneau et Dzmanashvili, le reste au pied de Plummer. Vannes a alors pass\u00e9 trois essais en vingt minutes : Sanerivi (56e), Iashagashvili (66e) et le capitaine Gorrissen (79e), tous transform\u00e9s par Bouthier. 27-26, premi\u00e8re victoire de la saison pour le promu, quatri\u00e8me d\u00e9faite d&#8217;affil\u00e9e pour Clermont.<\/p>\n<p>Mon Clermont +2,5 passe sur un point d&#8217;\u00e9cart : 21,25 $ nets pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s, port\u00e9s au bilan public. C&#8217;\u00e9tait le pari du match serr\u00e9, \u00e9crit vendredi ; il a pris le chemin le plus fou pour y arriver. La cote avait ferm\u00e9 \u00e0 1,80 : le march\u00e9 avait vu juste sur le vainqueur, et la mise minimale \u00e9tait le bon prix.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vannes renverse Clermont 27-26 dans le money time et d\u00e9croche sa premi\u00e8re victoire de la saison : mon Clermont +2,5 \u00e0 1,85 passe, 21,25 $ nets port\u00e9s au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11855,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Vannes \u2013 Clermont (Top 14) : Vannes favori sans victoire, Clermont sur trois d\u00e9faites. Le pari : Clermont +2,5 \u00e0 1,85 chez 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Vannes","ba_away_name":"Clermont","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-24 12:30:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54123","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pjixeddca6v","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap (points)","selection":"Clermont +2,5","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":2.5,"odds":1.85,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":21.25,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-23 09:36:14","settled_at":"2026-10-24 14:45:07","probability":0.57,"p_market":0.5067,"p_used":0.5384,"edge":-0.0041,"market_margin":0.0811,"market_books":3,"closing_odds":1.8,"p_close":0.5366,"clv":-0.0073,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-11398","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u00c0 1,73, Vannes favori sans victoire : je garde Clermont \u00e0 +2,5 &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Vannes \u2013 Clermont (Top 14) : Vannes favori sans victoire, Clermont sur trois d\u00e9faites. 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