{"id":1160,"date":"2026-09-28T02:43:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T00:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/fenerbahce-bayern-pronostic-2026-09-29\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T22:12:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T20:12:06","slug":"fenerbahce-bayern-pronostic-2026-09-29","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/basket\/euroleague\/fenerbahce-bayern-pronostic-2026-09-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Fenerbah\u00e7e \u2013 Bayern : le tir de Voigtmann face \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense de Jasikevi\u010dius"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Deux \u00e9quipes \u00e0 1-0, et une veille qui a surtout fait bouger les listes m\u00e9dicales et les cotes. Le Bayern r\u00e9cup\u00e8re ses trois absents du premier tour, et le prix de sa victoire a fondu depuis dimanche. Mon pari est rest\u00e9, lui, \u00e0 sa cote d&#8217;origine : 6,00.<\/p>\n<h2>Le Fener a gagn\u00e9 sans adresse, et sans Larkin<\/h2>\n<p>Le 78-68 contre Virtus tient par la d\u00e9fense : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fenerbahce.org\/haberler\/basketbol-erkek\/2026\/9\/basantrenorumuz-sarunas-jasikevicius-virtus-bologna-maci-sonrasi-aciklamalarda-bulundu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trois paniers \u00e0 trois points sur vingt-et-une tentatives<\/a>, un manque d&#8217;\u00e9nergie que Jasikevi\u010dius a point\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le match, et un syst\u00e8me d\u00e9fensif chang\u00e9 en cours de rencontre. Braxton Key a ajout\u00e9 11 points et 10 rebonds. Le meneur Larkin n&#8217;a pas jou\u00e9 cette premi\u00e8re journ\u00e9e et reste \u00ab jour apr\u00e8s jour \u00bb ; le club l&#8217;a tout de m\u00eame inscrit dans le groupe du championnat dimanche.<\/p>\n<h2>Les absents de Sofia sont rentr\u00e9s<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Bayern : <a href=\"https:\/\/basketnews.com\/news-212393-euroleague-injury-report-updated.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Baldwin, Giffey et Washington Jr.<\/a>, absents du premier tour, ont jou\u00e9 samedi en championnat.<\/li>\n<li>Bayern : Kilian Fischer reste incertain.<\/li>\n<li>Fenerbah\u00e7e : Larkin \u00ab jour apr\u00e8s jour \u00bb, non align\u00e9 au premier tour mais dans le groupe de dimanche.<\/li>\n<li>Fenerbah\u00e7e : Bingham Jr. incertain selon une source, forfait selon une autre, sans annonce officielle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Baldwin, sixi\u00e8me passeur de la derni\u00e8re EuroLeague \u00e0 5,5 passes de moyenne, revient au moment o\u00f9 le match de Sofia s&#8217;\u00e9tait gagn\u00e9 sans lui : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/en\/euroleague\/news\/voigtmanns-dagger-gives-gavel-winning-bayern-debut\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">86-84, sur un trois points de Voigtmann<\/a> apr\u00e8s une avance de dix-huit points fondue dans le dernier quart. Obst avait fini \u00e0 19 points, Thiemann \u00e0 15 et 7 rebonds. Le Bayern a surv\u00e9cu \u00e0 Sofia en apn\u00e9e ; il se pr\u00e9sente \u00e0 Istanbul avec de l&#8217;air.<\/p>\n<h2>Quinze victoires \u00e0 trois, et un pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent d&#8217;avril<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;historique est \u00e9crasant : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/en\/euroleague\/news\/tae2627-rs2-game-notes-ulk-mun\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">quinze victoires \u00e0 trois<\/a> pour Fenerbah\u00e7e en EuroLeague. La saison pass\u00e9e, chacun a gagn\u00e9 chez soi, et Munich avait coup\u00e9 une s\u00e9rie de huit d\u00e9faites d&#8217;affil\u00e9e par un 85-76 \u00e0 domicile d\u00e9but avril. Avec neuf recrues c\u00f4t\u00e9 turc cet \u00e9t\u00e9, la marge historique p\u00e8se moins que le chiffre.<\/p>\n<h2>Pris \u00e0 6,00, le pari voit la fen\u00eatre se refermer<\/h2>\n<p>Mon pronostic est enregistr\u00e9 : <strong>victoire du Bayern \u00e0 6,00 chez 888Sport<\/strong>, 0,5 unit\u00e9 (50 $), sur une estimation de 20 % de chances de victoire munichoise. \u00c0 6,00, il faut gagner une fois sur six pour rentrer dans ses frais. Lundi, le meilleur prix est descendu \u00e0 5,52 chez 1xbet : la barre passe \u00e0 18,1 % de chances n\u00e9cessaires, et la marge fond de moiti\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Je garde la mise d&#8217;origine, celle d&#8217;un pari d&#8217;outsider : les retours bavarois expliquent une partie du mouvement, et Fenerbah\u00e7e reste favori \u00e0 domicile. Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> sert \u00e0 mesurer ce qu&#8217;une telle cote p\u00e8se dans une bankroll, et ce pari restera dans mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, m\u00eame perdu. 18 ans et plus : ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>100-76 : la fen\u00eatre s&#8217;est referm\u00e9e en dix minutes<\/h2>\n<p>Fenerbah\u00e7e a \u00e9cras\u00e9 le Bayern 100-76 \u00e0 Istanbul. Le match a dur\u00e9 dix minutes : un premier quart-temps de 31-15, puis 39 minutes de jeu sur 40 pass\u00e9es devant, et une avance all\u00e9e jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 28 points. Les retours bavarois que je lisais comme un signal de march\u00e9 ont jou\u00e9, Baldwin auteur de 13 points, et le Bayern a couru apr\u00e8s le score toute la soir\u00e9e. L&#8217;adresse ext\u00e9rieure a tout r\u00e9gl\u00e9 : 15 trois points sur 30 pour le Fener, 7 sur 27 pour Munich, plus le rebond 34-27.<\/p>\n<p>Victoire du Bayern \u00e0 6,00 chez 888Sport : pari perdu, une demi-unit\u00e9 de mise, 50 $. La cote a continu\u00e9 de descendre apr\u00e8s moi, de 5,52 lundi jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 4,20 chez 888Sport \u00e0 la cl\u00f4ture : le march\u00e9 avait lu ce match mieux que moi, mes 20 % \u00e9taient trop g\u00e9n\u00e9reux. La demi-unit\u00e9 perdue va au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fenerbah\u00e7e \u00e9crase le Bayern 100-76 : la victoire \u00e0 6,00 chez 888Sport est perdue, une demi-unit\u00e9 de moins. Le match n&#8217;a dur\u00e9 qu&#8217;un quart-temps.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2266,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Fenerbah\u00e7e \u2013 Bayern : pronostic Munich \u00e0 6,00 apr\u00e8s son succ\u00e8s \u00e0 Sofia, malgr\u00e9 la d\u00e9fense turque et une avance presque perdue contre Hapo\u00ebl.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Fenerbah\u00e7e","ba_away_name":"Bayern Munich","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-09-29 17:45:00","ba_venue":"Ulker Spor ve Etkinlik Salonu","ba_match_key":"api-sports:basketball:508595","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[24,95],"class_list":["post-1160","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-basket","ba_sport-euroleague"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fenerbah\u00e7e \u2013 Bayern : le tir de Voigtmann face \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense de Jasikevi\u010dius &#183; 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